Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

17

Alex Galchenyuk

Colorado Avalanche Center

The 2nd-lowest share of offensive-zone time and the 4th-worst penalty differential of the 393 qualified forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13MTL4891827+14200027911.412:19
2013-14MTL65131831-122630211011.814:24
2014-15MTL80202646+83930116312.316:26
2015-16MTL82302656-82090420114.916:16
2016-17MTL61172744-52460610416.415:56
2017-18MTL82193251-31229022138.916:14
2018-19ARI72192241-193490415911.915:44
2019-20PIT/MIN5981624-516200869.312:18
2020-21OTT/TOR345813-820100628.112:43
2021-22ARI6061521-1132000896.713:09
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—643146208354-7725342021126611.514:52

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 15 assists in 60 games for Arizona — 21 points at 13:09 a night, minus-11, with 32 penalty minutes. He signed here in the summer.

37.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 738 minutes, the 1st percentile among forwards, and 41.4 per cent of the shot attempts, the 2nd. His ice went 30-39 against an expectation of 25.52-41.73 — five more goals for than the chances promised and three fewer against, which on those chances is the only good news on the page.

Arizona finished 31st in the league and 32nd in chance share. Every figure above is an Arizona figure.

The Finesse Game

6.77 shots per 60 is the 40th percentile among forwards at 6.7 per cent, the 12th. Six goals on 89 attempts, from a median of 24 feet with 51 per cent from the slot — the shot chart is fine and nothing went in.

1.62 even-strength points per 60 is the 39th percentile and 5 per cent of his points came on the power play. 2.13 giveaways per 60 is the 81st percentile and counts against him.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 194. 5.09 hits per 60 is the 62nd percentile among forwards and 1.82 blocks is the 55th.

1.22 penalties taken per 60 is the 85th percentile and 0.30 drawn is the 5th — a drawn-minus-taken of minus-0.91, the 4th-worst of the 393 qualified forwards. He fouls four times as often as he is fouled.

36.7 per cent of his even-strength time was in the offensive zone — the 2nd-lowest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers. 10.25 miles per 60 is the 93rd percentile. He worked hard, in his own end, all season.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2012 by Montreal, and 643 NHL games at 28 across seven clubs with 354 points and a career minus-77.

Thirty goals at twenty-one and nothing above nineteen since. Colorado has just won a Stanley Cup and lost Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Nico Sturm from its forward group. A former third-overall pick on a cheap deal is exactly the sort of bet a champion with cap problems makes, and the measured record says it will not come off.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He fouls four times as often as he is fouled.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 738 minutes

Expected goals
37.9%
1st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.4%
3rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 39 against. Expected: 25.5 and 41.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
11th
Numbers
1st

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 51 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 60 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
58th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.13 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.25 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.2 mph
78th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with ARI · 738 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ARI took 42.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 37.9% — 4.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
738 minutes at five-on-five — 36th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Phil Kessel29.7%42.9%48.7%
Shayne Gostisbehere40.2%36.7%43.2%
Anton Stralman35.4%39.3%45.2%

29.7% together, 42.9% for him apart and 48.7% for Kessel apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.