Calgary Flames

What the Quant Says

253 goals, 20th in the league, and 17th at creating chances at even strength at 2.549 expected goals per 60. Middling and consistent, which is the theme of this page.

At five-on-five the club scored 167 goals against an expectation of 163.7 — a finishing surplus of 3.3 goals, 15th in the league. Exactly average again.

Yegor Sharangovich scored 31 goals at a 17.32 per cent conversion. Blake Coleman scored 30 with 7 game-winners and 4 shorthanded goals. Nazem Kadri had 75 points and 46 assists at 33 on 277 shots. Jonathan Huberdeau threw 40 assists. MacKenzie Weegar scored 20 from the blue line.

Anthony Mantha was added after 23 goals on 113 shots — a 20.35 per cent conversion, the second-highest of any player in this edition with a hundred attempts. Andrei Kuzmenko converted 18.18 per cent and has a career rate of 23.11 across 264 shots.

Four men above seventeen per cent is not a repeatable arrangement, and it is why a club 16th at creating chances scored 253 goals.

What the Scout Says

Four men who convert at extraordinary rates, and a distributor who has not scored since he arrived.

Andrei Kuzmenko takes 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 17 and converted 18.18 per cent, with a career rate of 23.11 across 264 shots. He finds the soft spot in a box and the release is immediate. He is undrafted.

Anthony Mantha shoots from a median of 21 feet with 49 per cent inside 20 and converted 20.35 per cent at 6-5 and 240 pounds. Blake Coleman shoots from a median of 21 with 49 per cent inside 20 and converted 15.71. Yegor Sharangovich converted 17.32 on 179 shots from a median of 28.

Nazem Kadri took 277 attempts — the most on the roster — from a median of 24 feet with 42 per cent inside 20, and threw 46 assists at 33.

Jonathan Huberdeau's 40 assists are the largest source of distribution on the club, and 12 goals on 143 shots is the other half of a player who scored 30 twice in Florida. Connor Zary shoots from a median of 20 with 49 per cent inside 20 and converted 15.56 as a rookie.

What the Quant Says

271 goals against, 23rd in the league, over an even-strength suppression rate of 2.570 expected goals against per 60, which is 17th. The chances were average and the goals were not, and the gap is the crease.

At five-on-five the club conceded 181 goals against an expectation of 164.2 — nearly seventeen more than the chances predicted.

MacKenzie Weegar played 22:56 a night, scored 20 goals, and his ice went 65-68 against an expectation of 63.84-62.42 — six goals conceded above expectation. Rasmus Andersson played 23:50 — the most on the roster — and his ice went 68-74 against 60.30-63.86. Both of the club's top-pair defencemen were underwater by roughly the same amount, and neither by more than the goaltending explains.

Nazem Kadri's ice went 60-47 against an expectation of 49.62-48.34 — ten goals of finishing above expectation on the ice of the club's leading scorer, and the one place on this roster where the goals came out ahead of the chances.

Kevin Bahl was added at 6-6 and 230 after 51.2 per cent of the chances in New Jersey, and Jake Bean arrives having taken 43.2 per cent in Columbus with an on-ice ledger of 31-66.

What the Scout Says

A seventh-round pick playing twenty-three minutes and scoring twenty, and everything behind him is new.

MacKenzie Weegar was 206th overall in 2013 and scored 20 goals from the blue line at 22:56 a night. He carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and 153 career assists in 469 games is the distribution. He defends with position rather than force and does not clear his crease.

Rasmus Andersson played 23:50 a night — the most on the roster — and threw 30 assists. He walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits, and the shot from the point is heavy. He blocks shots and does not punish anybody.

Kevin Bahl is 6-6 and 230 and clears the crease by moving grown men out of it, on 82 penalty minutes. He takes liberties and he is the only heavy defenceman here.

Jake Bean carries the puck and does not defend — the 11th percentile of chances and an on-ice ledger of 39-48 in Columbus. Tyson Barrie is 33 with 396 career assists and a career minus-76. Daniil Miromanov is undrafted, 6-4, and took 54.8 per cent of the chances in 24 games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 16.8 goals worse than the chances faced, 27th in the league. In front of a defence that was 17th at suppressing them. That is the season.

Jacob Markstrom played 48 games and was traded to New Jersey in the summer. He was the club's starter for four years.

Dan Vladar went 8-9-2 with an .8815, a 3.62 average and no shutouts in 20 games, facing 574 shots. He has a career .8929 across 75 games.

Dustin Wolf went 7-7-1 with an .8929 in 17 games at 22, in his first NHL season. He was 214th overall in 2019 — a seventh-round pick — and at 6-0 and 166 pounds he is the lightest goaltender in this edition by six pounds.

A club that was average at everything and 27th in the crease has traded the man who was in it and handed the job to a seventh-round pick who weighs 166 pounds. It is either the boldest decision of the off-season or the most reckless one.

What the Scout Says

A hundred and sixty-six pounds, a seventh-round pick, and the crease.

Dustin Wolf is 6-0 and 166 pounds — the lightest goaltender in this edition by six pounds — and he was 214th overall in 2019. He is one of the two or three most decorated goaltenders in American-league history and he has 18 NHL games.

He plays aggressively, meeting the shooter at the top of the crease, which is the only way a goaltender that size takes net away, and it costs him on the second play where a larger man simply stays big. The lateral recovery is quick and it has to be. The technique is exact and there is almost no wasted motion.

The rebound control is the thing that decides the career. An .8929 in seventeen games says nothing either way.

Dan Vladar is 6-5 and 209 and plays deep and large, which is the opposite arrangement, and the rebound control is the weakness — a career .8929 across 75 games with an .8815 last year.

A club that was 27th in goaltending traded its starter and handed the job to these two. There is no third option on the page.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 6.807 expected goals per 60, over 5:10 a night — the 12th-most power-play time in hockey. Average at it, with a decent amount of it.

Nazem Kadri scored 10 power-play goals, Andrei Kuzmenko 8, Yegor Sharangovich 6, Jonathan Huberdeau 4, Blake Coleman 3, MacKenzie Weegar 3 and Anthony Mantha 3 before arriving here.

The construction is a net-front man and a distributor. Kuzmenko takes 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 17 and converted 18.18 per cent — he finds the soft spot in a box and the release is immediate. Kadri takes 42 per cent from inside 20 and shoots more than anybody on the roster at 277 attempts.

Huberdeau's 40 assists are the distribution and Weegar walks the line at 22:56 a night. Anthony Mantha arrives at 6-5 and 240 and can be the screen, which is what the unit has not had.

What the Scout Says

A 6-5 screen, a finisher who does nothing but shoot from the paint, and a quarterback who scored twenty.

Andrei Kuzmenko is the finisher. He takes 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, converted 18.18 per cent, and scored 8 a man up — he finds the seam in a box and does not need the puck to settle.

Anthony Mantha arrives at 6-5 and 240 and stands in the blue paint, which is what this unit has not had. Nazem Kadri takes 277 attempts a season and scored 10 a man up, and Jonathan Huberdeau holds the puck below the goal line and waits for the seam — 40 assists and 495 for his career.

MacKenzie Weegar walks the line and scored 20 goals, and Rasmus Andersson runs the second unit on a heavy shot from the point.

Nineteenth in the league on the eleventh-most opportunity is a unit whose personnel reads better than its rate.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 7.185 expected goals against per 60, over 4:44 a game — the sixth-fewest shorthanded time in hockey. Average at it and not asked to do much.

Blake Coleman scored 4 shorthanded goals — the most on the club by a distance — and has 17 for his career. Yegor Sharangovich scored 3 and has 8 in 287 games. Mikael Backlund scored 1 and has 17 for his career. Rasmus Andersson scored 1.

Nine shorthanded goals across the roster from a unit ranked 19th is aggression rather than structure, and Coleman and Backlund are why.

The fouling is concentrated rather than spread. Martin Pospisil took 109 penalty minutes in 63 games at 173 pounds, Kevin Bahl 82 in 82, Ryan Lomberg 80 in 75, Blake Coleman 76 in 78 and Brayden Pachal 51 in 50. Yegor Sharangovich took 8 penalty minutes in 82 games, which is the other extreme on the same roster.

What the Scout Says

Two men with seventeen career shorthanded goals each, and a club that mostly stays out of the box.

Blake Coleman scored 4 shorthanded goals and has 17 in 542 career games — he reads the pass before it is made and he is gone. Mikael Backlund has 17 in 990 games and wins the draw that begins the shift, and at 35 the anticipation is entirely intact.

Yegor Sharangovich scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 8 in 287 games, on 8 penalty minutes in 82 games — one of the cleanest rates in this edition.

Rasmus Andersson blocks shots and defends positionally, and Kevin Bahl clears the crease at 6-6.

The fouling is where the unit gets its work. Martin Pospisil took 109 penalty minutes in 63 games, Kevin Bahl 82, Ryan Lomberg 80 and Blake Coleman 76, and the club still spent the sixth-fewest minutes shorthanded in hockey, which says how clean the rest of the roster is.