Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

58

Oliver Kylington

Colorado Avalanche Defense

Thirty-three games back after two years away, at 27, and still skating like the man who had 31 points.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16CGY10000000010.017:22
2018-19CGY38358+3100012114.312:25
2019-20CGY48257-616000375.413:42
2020-21CGY8011-1000070.013:05
2021-22CGY7392231+34141021386.518:10
2023-24CGY33358-612000427.117:15
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—201173855+24521032466.915:39

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Thirty-three games in Calgary, 3 goals and 5 assists, 17:15 a night and minus-6. He took 48.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 535 minutes, the 38th percentile, and his ice went 21-27 against an expectation of 22.96-24.88.

It was his first hockey in more than a season and it is a fair set of numbers for a man returning to a league he had been away from. He is plus-24 across 201 career games.

The Finesse Game

The skating is the reason he is in the league — quick feet, a tight turn, and the ability to escape a forechecker on the first touch. It is the thing that came back first.

Forty-two shots at a median of 52 feet with 69 per cent from beyond 40. Seventeen goals and 38 assists in 201 games is a third-pair offensive rate, and the 31-point season in Calgary that made his name is the outlier rather than the level.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 183 and does not play a heavy game. Twelve penalty minutes in 33 games is an ordinary rate and there is nothing hostile in it.

The defending is done with feet and position. Against size in front of the net he is not a factor.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2015 out of Stockholm, who missed a full season and came back at 26 to play 33 games. Whatever a return like that costs, he paid it and he is playing.

Colorado signed him as the seventh defenceman on a club with three very good ones. The skating is worth the bet.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The skating is the reason he is in the league — quick feet, a tight turn, and the ability to escape a forechecker on the first touch.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-0 and 183 and does not play a heavy game.”

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “quick feet, a tight turn, and the ability to escape a forechecker on the first touch”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 535 minutes

Expected goals
48%
38th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.2%
37th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 27 against. Expected: 23.0 and 24.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
38th

The numbers rank him 32 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 33 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
1.42 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.49 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.4 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with CGY · 535 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CGY took 49.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.0% — 1.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 535 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Rasmus Andersson49.4%46.6%48.4%
Brayden Pachal45.0%49.7%46.3%
Nazem Kadri48.1%47.9%51.2%

49.4% together, 46.6% for him apart and 48.4% for Andersson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

67 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.