Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

15

Noah Hanifin

Vegas Golden Knights Defense

Forty-seven points and 23:37 a night, and a career plus-minus of exactly minus-one.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16CAR7941822-14221001223.317:54
2016-17CAR8142529-19262011083.717:55
2017-18CAR79102232-20211031656.118:52
2018-19CGY8052833+18121121164.320:46
2019-20CGY7051722-12121001323.821:10
2020-21CGY4741115-218001894.520:01
2021-22CGY81103848+27191011895.321:18
2022-23CGY8173138+2331001764.022:39
2023-24CGY/VGK80133447+19245021647.923:37
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—67862224286-11871311012614.920:29

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games across Calgary and Vegas, 13 goals and 34 assists for 47 points, 5 on the power play, 24 penalty minutes, 23:37 a night and plus-19, with 2 game-winners. He took 51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,497 minutes, the 66th percentile, and his ice went 72-57 against an expectation of 61.50-57.31.

Ten and a half goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and level at the other end. Seventy-two goals for in 1,497 minutes is the largest total on this club and 13 goals is a career high.

The Finesse Game

263 attempts at a median of 52 feet with 74 per cent of them from beyond forty and 10 per cent from inside twenty, 159 of those on goal, converted at 7.9 per cent against a career 4.92 across 1,261 shots.

224 career assists and 62 goals in 678 games. Two hundred and sixty-three attempts is the most of any defenceman on this club and the shot from the point is genuinely heavy; 13 goals at a 7.9 per cent rate against a career 4.92 is the part that will not repeat.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 206 and took 24 penalty minutes.

187 career penalty minutes in 678 games. He is large and skates well enough not to need to be; the gap is closed with feet and the man is taken off the puck at the wall rather than in front of the net.

The Intangibles

Fifth overall in 2015 by Carolina, nine seasons, and Vegas will be his third organisation.

A career minus-1 in 678 games. He is 27, he took twenty-three and a half minutes a night last season, and 47 points is one short of his career high.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “Two hundred and sixty-three attempts is the most of any defenceman on this club and the shot from the point is genuinely heavy; 13 goals at a 7.9 per cent rate against a career 4.92 is the part that will not repeat.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is large and skates well enough not to need to be; the gap is closed with feet and the man is taken off the puck at the wall rather than in front of the net.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,497 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.2%
65th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 72 for, 57 against. Expected: 61.5 and 57.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
95th
Numbers
66th

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
89th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.99 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.4 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with CGY · 1150 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VGK took 51.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 0.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
1,497 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Chris Tanev53.9%49.7%57.7%
Blake Coleman51.1%52.0%52.3%
Mikael Backlund48.5%53.0%52.7%

53.9% together, 49.7% for him apart and 57.7% for Tanev apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Tanev and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

263 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.