Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

28

Elias Lindholm

Boston Bruins Center

Five hundred and fifty-seven points, two clubs in one season, and the first-line centre Boston has needed for two years.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14CAR5891221-1444027012.914:32
2014-15CAR81172239-231440417010.016:25
2015-16CAR82112839-23242031766.318:07
2016-17CAR72113445-2162101517.318:11
2017-18CAR81162844-81860415310.517:54
2018-19CGY81275178+302091518214.820:02
2019-20CGY70292554-82280716917.219:43
2020-21CGY56192847+102260413014.619:54
2021-22CGY82424082+6122101923517.919:57
2022-23CGY80224264+614101218611.818:39
2023-24CGY/VAN75152944-14256141738.719:42
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—818218339557+1520167544179512.118:30

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 29 assists in 75 games for Calgary and Vancouver — 44 points at 19:42 a night, minus-14, with 6 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded goal and 4 game-winners on 173 shots at 8.67 per cent, and 25 penalty minutes.

It is the worst full season of his career by points-per-game since he was 21, and it happened across a trade deadline and two systems.

47.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,021 minutes, the 34th percentile. His ice went 39-46 against an expectation of 36.80-40.88 — two goals above expectation at one end and five conceded above it at the other.

The Finesse Game

173 attempts at a median of 24 feet, with 40 per cent from inside 20 and 27 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 8.67 per cent. The conversion is the outlier: he has a career 12.14 per cent across 1,795 shots and 218 goals.

29 assists and 339 for his career, and the distribution is the more durable half. He plays in the middle of the ice, he arrives at the net rather than circling away from it, and he is trusted a man short.

He had 80 points two seasons before this one.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 200. He forechecks honestly and finishes checks without hurting anybody, and the defending is positional.

25 penalty minutes in 75 games and 201 in 818 for his career is a low rate for a centre taking these minutes. He does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

Fifth overall in 2013 by Carolina, and 818 games and 557 points at 29 across three clubs, with a Selke finish and an 82-point season behind him.

He signed here in the summer. This club has not had a genuine first-line centre since Bergeron retired and it now has one, and the question the numbers raise is whether last season was the trade or the beginning of the decline.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    3 of his 15 goals late or in overtime, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**29 assists and 339 for his career**, and the distribution is the more durable half.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He plays in the middle of the ice, he arrives at the net rather than circling away from it, and **he is trusted a man short.**”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He forechecks honestly and finishes checks without hurting anybody, and the defending is positional.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “**25 penalty minutes in 75 games and 201 in 818 for his career** is a low rate for a centre taking these minutes. He does not retaliate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,021 minutes

Expected goals
47.4%
34th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 46 against. Expected: 36.8 and 40.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
34th

The report ranks him 42 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 75 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
44th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.11 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.06 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.7 mph
93rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with CGY · 684 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.4% — 5.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,021 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Yegor Sharangovich48.5%46.6%49.5%
Andrew Mangiapane52.8%44.8%51.6%
Jonathan Huberdeau46.5%47.8%51.5%

48.5% together, 46.6% for him apart and 49.5% for Sharangovich apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

249 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.