Calgary Flames

What the Quant Says

260 goals, 19th in the league.

Calgary created 2.976 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 5th, and took 57.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 2nd in the league, and 55.2 per cent of the expected goals, 3rd.

At five-on-five it scored 182 goals against an expectation of 186.8 — a shortfall of 4.8, 24th in the league.

Elias Lindholm had 22 goals and 64 points with 10 power-play goals, Nazem Kadri 24 and 56 on 267 shots, Mikael Backlund 19 and 56 at 34, Jonathan Huberdeau 15 and 55, Rasmus Andersson 49 points from the blue line at 24:05 a night and Dillon Dube 18 goals.

Andrew Mangiapane had 17 goals and 43 points at 5-10, from a sixth-round pick with 95 career goals. Nikita Zadorov scored 14 at 6-7 and 255 pounds. Yegor Sharangovich arrives from New Jersey with 13 goals.

What the Scout Says

A hundred and fifteen points in Florida, fifty-five here, and a thirty-four-year-old captain with the best chance share on the club.

Mikael Backlund is 6-0 and 206 with fifteen seasons and 908 games in one uniform, and he has just been named captain. He held a 60.5 per cent chance share at 34, the 98th percentile, and has been the club's best defensive forward for a decade without ever once being its most talked-about player. The 90 in hockey sense is the highest grade on any forward card in this chapter.

Jonathan Huberdeau is 6-1 and 200 and was third overall in 2011, with 668 points in 750 games and 115 of them in his last Florida season. He is at the 23rd percentile in top speed with 0.4 bursts a game at the 16th, and the club's whole season depends on whether the 55 was the adjustment or the beginning.

Nazem Kadri is 6-0 and 185 with 645 career penalty minutes and a game built on getting to the net; he is 33 and there are five more years on the contract. Elias Lindholm is 6-1 and had 64 points on 84 in hockey sense, the second-highest forward grade here.

Blake Coleman is 5-11 with two Stanley Cups and a game built entirely on speed and forechecking, which does not age gently. Andrew Mangiapane is 5-10, a sixth-round pick, with 95 goals in 342 games. Dillon Dube is at the 97th percentile in sprints and the 96th in top speed on a third line.

What the Quant Says

Calgary allowed 2.413 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 4th in the league, and conceded 252 goals, 13th. The gap between fourth and thirteenth is the crease.

At five-on-five it conceded 169 goals against an expectation of 151.5, and the club's goaltending came in 17.5 goals worse than the chances it faced, 26th in the league.

Chris Tanev held a 61.2 per cent chance share — the fourth-highest of the 525 skaters in this book — over 65 games at 20:07, undrafted, with one goal. MacKenzie Weegar was at 58.4 per cent, the 96th percentile, on a seventh-round pick playing 21 minutes.

Rasmus Andersson played 79 games at 24:05 and had 49 points, covering 3.57 miles a game, the 98th percentile, off a top speed at the 50th. Noah Hanifin played 81 at 22:39 with a 23.7 mph top speed, the 98th percentile.

Nikita Zadorov is 6-7 and 255 with 576 career penalty minutes. Jordan Oesterle arrives from Detroit, undrafted, with 349 games and the 2nd percentile in top speed.

What the Scout Says

Four top-four defencemen, three of them approaching free agency, and the best chance share in this chapter.

Chris Tanev is 6-3 and 200, undrafted, with 717 NHL games and a career plus-100. He held the fourth-highest five-on-five chance share of the 525 skaters in this book and scored one goal. He is the single most obvious deadline rental in the league — a right-shot shutdown defenceman with a contender's exact profile — and everybody in the sport knows it, including him. The 90 in compete is the highest grade on any card in this chapter.

MacKenzie Weegar is 6-0 and 206 and was 206th overall in 2013 — a seventh-round pick with 387 NHL games and an eight-year contract, one of the best late-round outcomes of the decade. He arrived in the Tkachuk trade and has been the better half of it by a wide margin.

Rasmus Andersson is 6-1 and covers 3.57 miles a game at the 98th percentile, off a top speed at the 50th. He is a second-round pick who has become a genuine number-one defenceman at 24 minutes a night.

Noah Hanifin is 6-3 and 206 with a 23.7 mph top speed, the 98th percentile — the fastest man on the blue line by a distance and one of the fastest defencemen in the league. Nikita Zadorov is 6-7 and 255 with 576 career penalty minutes and 14 goals.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 17.5 goals worse than the chances it faced, 26th in the league. This is the page that explains the season.

Jacob Markstrom went 23-21-12 with an .8923 and a 2.92 in 59 games, facing 1,542 shots. One season earlier he posted a .922 and was nominated for the Vezina. His career line across 437 games is a .9094.

Dan Vladar went 14-6-5 with an .8921 and a 2.91 in 27 games, facing 667 — within two ten-thousandths of what his partner posted. His career line across 55 games is an .8975.

Two goaltenders, 86 games, and identical save percentages to three decimal places. On a club that was second in the league in shot-attempt share and fourth at suppressing chances, that is the whole of the ninety-three points.

Dustin Wolf played one game.

What the Scout Says

Two goaltenders, eighty-six games, and one save percentage between them.

Jacob Markstrom is 6-6 and 207 and went 23-21-12 with an .8923. One season earlier he posted a .922 and was nominated for the Vezina behind a similar club. He is enormous, he handles the puck well — the 64 in puck-handling is the best figure on his card — and there is a career .9094 across 437 games underneath a season that does not resemble it.

Dan Vladar is 6-5 and 209 and posted an .8921 in 27 games, which is within two ten-thousandths of his partner's figure. A career .8975 across 55 games says this is closer to what he is.

Calgary was second in the league in shot-attempt share and missed the playoffs. Nothing else on this page needs to be fixed, and this does.

What the Quant Says

17th in the league at 7.041 expected goals per 60, over 5:10 a night, 11th in power-play time.

Nazem Kadri scored 11 power-play goals, Elias Lindholm 10, Mikael Backlund 5, Jonathan Huberdeau 4, Andrew Mangiapane 2, Adam Ruzicka 2, Jakob Pelletier 2, Rasmus Andersson 1, Noah Hanifin 1 and Dillon Dube 1.

Nazem Kadri has 74 career power-play goals in 821 games, the most on the roster, and Elias Lindholm 61 in 743. Jonathan Huberdeau has 48 in 750, Mikael Backlund 33 in 908 and Andrew Mangiapane 12 in 342.

Twenty-one power-play goals from two centres on a unit that finished seventeenth. The men who can run a power play are here; the rate says the unit does not get to them quickly enough.

What the Scout Says

Two centres with 135 career power-play goals between them, on a unit that finished seventeenth.

Nazem Kadri has 74 career power-play goals in 821 games, the most on the roster, and scored 11. He goes to the front of the net and stays there, which is where 74 of them have come from.

Elias Lindholm has 61 in 743 games and scored 10, working from the right circle. Jonathan Huberdeau arrived with 48 in 750 and is the passer the unit was rebuilt around; the 86 in playmaking is the highest grade on any card in this chapter.

Mikael Backlund has 33 in 908 games and Andrew Mangiapane 12 in 342. Rasmus Andersson and Noah Hanifin take the points with a 97.0 mph and a 95.4 mph shot respectively.

Every part of this unit has done the job somewhere. Seventeenth is a statement about entries rather than about personnel.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at 6.089 expected goals against per 60, over 5:17 a night, 8th in shorthanded time. The best department on the club by a distance.

Blake Coleman scored 2 shorthanded goals, Dillon Dube 2, Mikael Backlund 1, Rasmus Andersson 1 and Elias Lindholm 1. Yegor Sharangovich scored 2 elsewhere.

Mikael Backlund has 16 career shorthanded goals in 908 games, the most on the roster, and Blake Coleman 13 in 464 — the highest rate of anybody in this chapter. Yegor Sharangovich arrives with 5 in 205, Elias Lindholm has 4 in 743, Jonathan Huberdeau 4 in 750 and Dillon Dube 3 in 282.

Chris Tanev has 170 penalty minutes in 717 career games and a career plus-100, which is thirteen seasons of killing penalties without taking them. Nikita Zadorov is 6-7 and A.J. Greer arrives with 114 penalty minutes in 61 games.

Third in the league, and the two men who did it best are 34 and 31. This is the part of the club most exposed to the contract situation.

What the Scout Says

Third in the league, and the two men who run it are 34 and 31.

Mikael Backlund has 16 career shorthanded goals in 908 games and Blake Coleman 13 in 464 — the highest rate on the roster, from a man whose whole game is closing distance. Between them they are the reason this unit finished third.

Chris Tanev has 170 penalty minutes in 717 games and a career plus-100. He blocks shots and defends by position and has spent thirteen seasons doing this without taking a penalty of his own.

Elias Lindholm has 4 career shorthanded goals in 743 games and takes the draw. Dillon Dube has 3 in 282 at the 97th percentile in sprints, which is a useful thing on a kill.

Nikita Zadorov is 6-7 and 255 and A.J. Greer arrives with 114 penalty minutes in 61 games at nine minutes a night. The weight is here to clear a net front, and the rate says it works.