Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

91

Nazem Kadri

Calgary Flames Center

Seventy-five points at thirty-three on 277 shots, and nineteen goals underwater on his ice.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10TOR1000-100000—17:26
2010-11TOR293912-38000515.915:47
2011-12TOR21527+281012817.914:10
2012-13TOR48182644+152350110716.816:03
2013-14TOR78203050-116770214813.517:23
2014-15TOR73182139-72831117610.217:36
2015-16TOR76172845-15734022606.518:16
2016-17TOR82322961-795120623613.616:35
2017-18TOR80322355+242120321115.216:46
2018-19TOR73162844-2434051848.716:11
2019-20COL51191736+79740113314.317:26
2020-21COL56112132-7343031706.516:28
2021-22COL71285987+137180624711.319:14
2022-23CGY82243256-195611042679.017:13
2023-24CGY82294675043100427710.518:26
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—903272371643-3368884139249510.917:14

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

29 goals and 46 assists in all 82 games — 75 points at 18:26 a night, even, with 10 power-play goals and 4 game-winners on 277 shots, converting at 10.47 per cent, and 43 penalty minutes. He was 33.

Two hundred and seventy-seven attempts is the largest volume on the roster.

50.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,170 minutes, the 58th percentile. His ice went 60-47 against an expectation of 49.62-48.34 — seven goals of scoring missing and ten conceded above expectation, on a club whose goaltending was 27th in the league.

The Finesse Game

277 attempts at a median of 24 feet, with 42 per cent from inside 20 and 17 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 10.47 per cent against a career 10.90.

He takes the puck to the middle of the ice and shoots from there, and the volume is the point — seventy-five points from a third-line centre’s chance share is a scorer refusing to be one.

46 assists and 371 for his career. He holds the puck below the goal line and waits rather than forcing the seam, and 84 career power-play goals in 903 games is where the shot is worth most.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 185 and light for the way he plays. He finishes checks well above his weight and he plays with an edge — 688 penalty minutes in 903 games, and a reputation earned over fifteen seasons.

He retaliates, and 43 penalty minutes in 82 games is a moderate rate now for a man who has taken more than a hundred in a season twice.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2009 by Toronto, and 903 games and 643 points at 34, with a Stanley Cup in Colorado in 2022 and the double-overtime goal that won a conference final.

He is 34 and led the club in points. A fifteen-year centre who is still taking 277 shots and playing eighteen minutes a night is a genuinely rare durability, and he is the one forward on this roster whose ceiling has already been demonstrated in May.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    62% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**46 assists and 371 for his career.** He holds the puck below the goal line and waits rather than forcing the seam, and **84 career power-play goals in 903 games** is where the shot is worth most.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**He finishes checks well above his weight and he plays with an edge** — 688 penalty minutes in 903 games, and a reputation earned over fifteen seasons.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “**He finishes checks well above his weight and he plays with an edge** — 688 penalty minutes in 903 games, and a reputation earned over fifteen seasons.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “**He retaliates**, and 43 penalty minutes in 82 games is a moderate rate now for a man who has taken more than a hundred in a season twice.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “**A fifteen-year centre who is still taking 277 shots and playing eighteen minutes a night is a genuinely rare durability**, and he is the one forward on this roster whose ceiling has already been demonstrated in May.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,170 minutes

Expected goals
50.7%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.4%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 47 against. Expected: 49.6 and 48.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
59th

The report ranks him 28 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
41st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.95 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.07 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.2 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1170 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CGY took 49.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.7% — 0.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,170 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Martin Pospisil55.4%44.6%45.2%
Connor Zary51.8%49.5%53.2%
Rasmus Andersson47.1%52.6%49.1%

55.4% together, 44.6% for him apart and 45.2% for Pospisil apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

360 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.