Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

20

Blake Coleman

Calgary Flames Left Wing

Thirty goals, seven game-winners, four shorthanded goals and seventeen for his career — the most complete forward on the roster.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NJD23112-727000293.512:51
2017-18NJD79131225+7500321468.914:24
2018-19NJD78221436-197133321310.317:01
2019-20NJD/TBL6621113205613220010.516:43
2020-21TBL55141731+153711312211.515:28
2021-22CGY81161733+16600122127.514:49
2022-23CGY82182038+9540221889.615:12
2023-24CGY78302454+197634719115.717:08
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—542135116251+4043181721130110.415:41

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 24 assists in 78 games — 54 points at 17:08 a night, plus-19, with 3 power-play goals, 4 shorthanded goals and 7 game-winners on 191 shots, converting at 15.71 per cent, and 76 penalty minutes. A career high in goals at 32.

Plus-nineteen on a club that finished twenty-third, and 51.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,121 minutes, the 67th percentile. His ice went 51-45 against an expectation of 49.52-45.93.

The Finesse Game

191 attempts at a median of 21 feet, with 49 per cent from inside 20 and 23 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 15.71 per cent against a career 10.38.

He goes to the net and he scores from the paint, and thirty goals from a checking winger is the product of shot selection and a very good year rather than a change of player.

24 assists. He does not create and he is not asked to — the job is to forecheck, kill penalties and finish what arrives.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 199, and he forechecks harder than anybody on this roster. He closes on a defenceman faster than a man that size should and he finishes every check.

431 penalty minutes in 542 games, and 76 in 78 last season. He retaliates and he plays on the edge deliberately.

The skating is the top end of the club and it is what makes both the forecheck and the penalty kill work.

The Intangibles

Seventy-fifth overall in 2011 by New Jersey, out of Miami of Ohio, and 542 games and 251 points at 32 with two Stanley Cups in Tampa and a career plus-40.

Seventeen career shorthanded goals in 542 games is the trait that defines him — he reads the pass before it is made and he is gone. On a club that has traded its goaltender and half its blue line, he is the man the room is built around.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “**He goes to the net and he scores from the paint**, and thirty goals from a checking winger is the product of shot selection and a very good year rather than a change of player.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “**5-11 and 199, and he forechecks harder than anybody on this roster.** He closes on a defenceman faster than a man that size should and he finishes every check.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**5-11 and 199, and he forechecks harder than anybody on this roster.** He closes on a defenceman faster than a man that size should and he finishes every check.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “**He retaliates** and he plays on the edge deliberately.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “**Seventeen career shorthanded goals in 542 games is the trait that defines him** — he reads the pass before it is made and he is gone.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create and he is not asked to** — the job is to forecheck, kill penalties and finish what arrives.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “On a club that has traded its goaltender and half its blue line, he is the man the room is built around.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,121 minutes

Expected goals
51.9%
67th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.5%
87th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 45 against. Expected: 49.5 and 45.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
67th

The report ranks him 26 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 78 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
75th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.03 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.8 mph
38th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1121 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CGY took 49.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.9% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,121 minutes at five-on-five — 75th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mikael Backlund52.6%46.6%44.1%
Andrew Mangiapane52.1%51.7%51.8%
MacKenzie Weegar52.7%51.3%49.6%

52.6% together, 46.6% for him apart and 44.1% for Backlund apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

241 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.