Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Matt Coronato

Calgary Flames Right Wing

Thirteenth overall in 2021, thirty-four games, and three goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23CGY1000+1200040.014:38
2023-24CGY34369-154100585.212:37
2024-25 so far
Career35369-146100624.812:40

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 6 assists in 34 games — 9 points at 12:37 a night, minus-15, with 1 power-play goal on 58 shots at 5.17 per cent, and 4 penalty minutes.

46.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 375 minutes, the 28th percentile. His ice went 14-19 against an expectation of 12.88-14.70 — four goals conceded above expectation in a fourth-line role.

The Finesse Game

58 attempts at a median of 33 feet, with 25 per cent from inside 20 and 27 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 5.17 per cent.

The shot is the reason he was a first-round pick and it did not go in — three goals on fifty-eight attempts, from a man who scored 41 in a college season. The release is quick and the distance is the problem: a rookie shooting from thirty-three feet is a rookie who has not yet found a way inside.

6 assists in 34 games. The passing is competent and the hockey sense is ahead of the production.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 183. He does not forecheck with force and he does not win pucks on the wall, and the game is played in open ice.

4 penalty minutes in 34 games is one of the cleanest rates on the roster, and it is clean because he is rarely in a battle.

The Intangibles

Thirteenth overall in 2021, out of Harvard, and 35 NHL games at 21 with three goals.

A first-round winger who scores three times in his first thirty-four games is neither a failure nor an argument, and on a club that has just traded most of its top six there is now ice available to settle it either way.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 375 minutes

Expected goals
46.7%
29th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 19 against. Expected: 12.9 and 14.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
55th
Numbers
29th

The report ranks him 26 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 375 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CGY took 49.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.7% — 3.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
375 minutes at five-on-five — 11th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
MacKenzie Weegar42.9%49.5%51.0%
Rasmus Andersson49.5%45.2%48.4%
Yegor Sharangovich45.2%47.5%53.3%

42.9% together, 49.5% for him apart and 51.0% for Weegar apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

91 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 25% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.