Calgary Flames

What the Quant Says

225 goals — sixth-fewest in the league — and 24th in creating chances at even strength at 2.37 expected goals per 60. Calgary also finished 29th in finishing, 15.7 goals below expectation. The attack was poor and it was worse than it should have been.

Nazem Kadri scored 35 at 34 on 279 shots, the most on the club by 85. Jonathan Huberdeau had 62 points on an 18.3 per cent rate — his best season here by a distance, and the reason is that he started shooting from 24 feet instead of 34. Matt Coronato scored 24 as a rookie at 22.

Underneath: Blake Coleman scored 15 on 194 shots when the chances said 22, and Morgan Frost had the best chance share of any forward on the club at 52.7 per cent and finished minus-17. Two of the club's worst results belong to two of its better possession forwards.

What the Scout Says

Two veterans doing it on volume, one 22-year-old who might do it on skill, and very little else.

Kadri shoots from everywhere — 279 attempts at 34 is a remarkable rate — and the first step has gone, so he scores by arriving in the right place rather than by beating anybody. Jonathan Huberdeau's passing is intact and always was: he holds pucks below the goal line, waits a beat longer than a defenceman expects, and puts it into space rather than onto a stick. The change last season was where he shot from, which is a coachable and durable thing.

Matt Coronato has a quick, deceptive release and took 180 shots as a rookie, and at 5-10 he takes them from 32 feet because that is where he is allowed to work — whether he can get inside decides his ceiling. Connor Zary is the most complete young forward here: he carries the puck into the zone, makes a play at speed, and gets to the interior, and he has not completed a season in three professional years.

Morgan Frost plays a slow deliberate game and finds the seam a beat later than the defence expects, and at 193 pounds gives up possession rather than absorbing a hit. Blake Coleman forechecks at speed and finishes checks and blocks shots and had 15 goals when the chances said 22. Mikael Backlund at 36 takes away the middle of the ice better than anybody on the roster.

What the Quant Says

238 goals against and 16th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.45 per 60, with a 7th-ranked shot-attempt share. The structure is better than the roster looks.

MacKenzie Weegar played 24:10 a night, put up 47 points and was plus-18 on a club that was outscored — the best rating on the roster and the most reliable player on it. Rasmus Andersson finished minus-38, the second-worst rating in the league, on five-on-five goals of 42-59 against an expected 57-60: a roughly even season at five-on-five, with the rating built almost entirely shorthanded and on the empty net. It is the most misleading number in this edition.

Kevin Bahl is 6-6 and took 21 minutes a night at 25 with a 26th-percentile share. Joel Hanley, at 34 and 5-11, posted a better chance share than either top-pair defenceman in 53 games. Brayden Pachal took 88 penalty minutes, the most on the club.

What the Scout Says

A genuinely good top four with one enormous rating problem and one very useful old man.

MacKenzie Weegar is the best passer on the blue line by a distance — 39 assists from moving the puck early and accurately rather than carrying it — and he finishes checks and defends his net front and makes an opponent's night unpleasant. Rasmus Andersson has a real shot from the point and a first pass that is quick when he is not pressured, and the decision-making under a forecheck is the recurring problem: the difficult play at the wrong time, and the turnover in his own zone.

Kevin Bahl is 6-6 and 230 and uses every inch — he clears the crease, closes a rush with reach, and is difficult to get around at the line — and he does nothing at all with the puck, which beside two right shots who both want it is a sensible division. Joel Hanley at 5-11 and 34 defends with position and stick, boxes out rather than clearing, and does not attempt anything that could go wrong, which is why a third-pair defenceman posted a better share than the top pair.

Brayden Pachal plays right at the edge of what the league allows and took 88 penalty minutes doing it. Jake Bean was a first-round pick for an offensive game that has never appeared in eight seasons.

What the Quant Says

Dustin Wolf went 29-16-8 with a .9096 across 53 games, finished second in the Calder voting, and is 6 feet and 166 pounds.

Calgary's goaltending came in 17.4 goals better than the chances faced, 5th in the league. Set that against the club's finishing — 29th, 15.7 goals below expectation — and the picture is a team that scored 225 goals and took 96 points because one rookie was that much better than the shots he faced.

Dan Vladar has gone to Philadelphia and the backup job is unresolved. A club whose season depends this completely on one small goaltender playing 55 games has not built much of a floor under him.

What the Scout Says

The best story in this chapter and the thinnest position on the roster.

Dustin Wolf is one of the smallest goaltenders to hold a starting job in thirty years and the game is built entirely around not needing size: exceptionally quick, exceptionally precise, square more consistently than almost anybody, with good rebound control. He has been told he is too small at every level and has been the best goaltender at every level, which is a specific kind of preparation, and the most striking thing about his rookie season was how little the moment appeared to matter — 53 games and no stretch where the numbers sag.

The reservation is workload rather than ability. Nobody knows what 60 starts a season does to a 166-pound goaltender across a decade, and Calgary has no established second option after Dan Vladar's departure. A club whose entire margin is one goaltender's save percentage needs a floor under it, and does not have one.

What the Quant Says

Dead last in the league at 5.85 expected goals per 60, over 4:43 a night. Not 30th. Last, and by a clear margin.

Huberdeau led it with 10 power-play goals, Kadri 9, Coronato 5, Yegor Sharangovich 5, Weegar 4. The personnel is not the explanation — Weegar has 39 assists, Huberdeau is one of the better passers of his generation, Kadri shoots 279 times a year, Coronato has a release. A unit finishing 32nd with those five is the single most fixable thing on this roster and the club has now finished in the bottom five here three years running.

What the Scout Says

The worst unit in the league, on personnel that does not explain it.

MacKenzie Weegar has 39 assists and moves the puck early and accurately. Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the better passers of his generation and now shoots from inside the dots. Nazem Kadri takes 279 shots a year and goes to the net front and does not mind being hit there. Matt Coronato has a genuine release from the circle. Yegor Sharangovich scored 5 of his 17 here.

That is a workable five, and the unit finished 32nd at 5.82 expected goals per 60. The failures are structural rather than personal — slow entries, too much perimeter movement, and nobody consistently in the paint besides Kadri. This club has finished in the bottom five on the power play three years running and it is the difference between 96 points and a playoff place.

What the Quant Says

23rd at 7.40 expected goals against per 60, over 4:42 a game. Below average, and the workload is substantially self-inflicted.

Pachal took 88 penalty minutes, Martin Pospisil 84, Kadri 72, Andersson 60, Ryan Lomberg 57 in eight and a half minutes a night. That is five men over 55 on a club that missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman do the forward work and both are genuinely good at it; Weegar and Bahl take the defensive minutes.

A club this close to a playoff place with the worst power play in the league and a 23rd-ranked kill has spent both special teams rather than earned anything from them.

What the Scout Says

Competent men, far too much work.

Mikael Backlund is the anchor: he takes away the middle of the ice, wins the defensive-zone draw, and has done it for sixteen seasons. Blake Coleman is among the more reliable defensive forwards in the league and blocks shots without theatre. Weegar and Kevin Bahl take the defensive pairing minutes and Bahl's reach ends plays a smaller defenceman would have to chase.

The volume is the problem and it comes from the same roster. Pachal 88 penalty minutes, Pospisil 84, Kadri 72, Andersson 60, and Ryan Lomberg 57 in eight and a half minutes a night. A 23rd-ranked kill on a club that missed the playoffs by a tiebreaker is not a personnel failure; it is a club that keeps choosing to be shorthanded.