Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

44

Joel Hanley

Calgary Flames Defense

Undrafted, three goals in 193 games, and an on-ice ledger that came out level with the chances at both ends.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16MTL1006600000100.016:00
2016-17MTL7000-3400050.010:09
2017-18ARI50000000020.011:08
2018-19DAL160000200090.013:42
2019-20DAL80220600040.011:21
2020-21DAL35088+62000270.013:01
2021-22DAL44246-1340001811.111:56
2022-23DAL26022+515000140.011:38
2023-24DAL/CGY42145+330000195.313:54
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—19332629-2630001082.812:46

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 4 assists in 42 games — 5 points at 13:54 a night, plus-3, on 19 shots at 5.26 per cent, and 30 penalty minutes.

52.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 560 minutes, the 73rd percentile. His ice went 21-18 against an expectation of 21.66-19.40 — a ledger level with the chances at both ends across five hundred and sixty minutes, which is the least eventful line on the roster and almost all of it the crease.

The Finesse Game

19 attempts at a median of 57 feet, with 84 per cent from beyond 40 and 5 per cent from inside 20. Three goals in 193 NHL games.

4 assists. He does not carry the puck out and he does not create, and 29 points in 193 games is the entire offensive record of a nine-year career.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 186 and one of the lightest defencemen on any roster in this chapter. He cannot clear his crease against a heavy forward and the defending is positional and stick-first.

30 penalty minutes in 42 games. He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of Massachusetts, and 193 NHL games across nine seasons at 33 for four clubs, with far more American-league games than NHL ones.

An undrafted defenceman who is still in the league at 33 has done it entirely by being available and unobjectionable, and on a blue line that has lost two of its top four he will play more than he should.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “**Undrafted**, out of Massachusetts, and **193 NHL games across nine seasons** at 33 for four clubs, with far more American-league games than NHL ones.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “**He cannot clear his crease against a heavy forward** and the defending is positional and stick-first.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “**He does not carry the puck out and he does not create**, and 29 points in 193 games is the entire offensive record of a nine-year career.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties.”

  • takes-libertieshe lacks it· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 560 minutes

Expected goals
52.7%
73rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.7%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 18 against. Expected: 21.7 and 19.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
73rd

The numbers rank him 72 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 51 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 42 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
51st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.17 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.03 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.4 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with DAL · 428 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CGY took 49.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.7% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
560 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Thomas Harley52.1%53.2%55.4%
Joe Pavelski49.0%53.8%54.2%
Sam Steel55.3%52.2%49.8%

52.1% together, 53.2% for him apart and 55.4% for Harley apart. Harley was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

37 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 48 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 84% from beyond forty.