Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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Washington Capitals

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 24 reports in the 2024-25 edition.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2023-24 · 82 games · 224 for, 207 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five
46.7% 26th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five
47.2% 25th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty
7.22 13th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty
7.74 25th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth
-9.5 25th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth
-4.2 20th of 32

Washington Capitals scored 9.5 fewer goals than their chances were worth — 10 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age
28.5
weighted by points
From 33 and up
23.3%
of skater points
From under 26
38.1%
of skater points
Homegrown
44.8%
drafted by this club
Continuity
71.5%
of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Twenty-eighth in goals scored, twenty-ninth at making chances, and eight men brought in to fix it.

Who this names 12 of 24 on the roster · 53% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Alexander Alexeyev, Nic Dowd, Martin Fehérváry, Hendrix Lapierre, Connor McMichael, Sonny Milano, Ivan Miroshnichenko, Aliaksei Protas, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Rasmus Sandin, Michael Sgarbossa, Tom Wilson.

What the Quant Says

40-31-11, 91 points, 17th in the league and fourth in the Metropolitan.

220 goals for, twenty-eighth in hockey. 257 against, seventeenth. Twenty-ninth at creating chances at even strength, twenty-second at preventing them, fifteenth on the power play and 22nd on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 143 goals scored against 152.5 expected, and 175 conceded against 170.8. Nine and a half goals of finishing lost and four of goaltending lost. The finishing was 25th and the goaltending 20th.

Alex Ovechkin scored 31 goals at 38 and has 853 in 1,426 career games — two hundred and sixty-one more than anybody else in this edition. Dylan Strome had 67 points, John Carlson played all 82 at 25:54 and Charlie Lindgren had 6 shutouts.

Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Taylor Raddysh, Brandon Duhaime, Jakub Vrana and Logan Thompson all arrive. Anthony Mantha, Nick Jensen, Beck Malenstyn, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Max Pacioretty and Darcy Kuemper do not.

This is a club that finished seventeenth in the league on 220 goals and the twenty-ninth-best rate of chance creation in hockey. Eight men have been brought in and six sent out. Everything about the summer says the club knows exactly which number was the problem.

What the Scout Says

The second-fewest chances created in the league, and eight arrivals to do something about it.

Washington created 2.336 expected goals per 60 at even strength, twenty-ninth in the league, and scored 220 goals, twenty-eighth. Alex Ovechkin scored 31 at 38 and has 853 in his career. Charlie Lindgren had 6 shutouts, tied for the most in this edition.

A club that finished seventeenth with almost nothing going for it at even strength, and then spent a summer adding a top-pairing defenceman, a second-line centre, two wingers and a goaltender. Whether any of that fixes twenty-ninth is the question this chapter cannot answer.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 22 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Charlie Lindgren and Logan Thompson. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2023-24.

56

Alexander Alexeyev

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

Not one attempt from inside twenty feet, in 39 games.
74

John Carlson

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

One thousand and nine games, 674 points, and 25:54 a night at 34.
6

Jakob Chychrun

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

Fourteen goals from the blue line, and seventeen goals of goaltending against him.
26

Nic Dowd

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · Washington Capitals

Twelve goals on 61 shots, on the lowest chance share of any forward on the club.
80

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · Washington Capitals

Four hundred and fifty-three career penalty minutes, and 342 points in 516 games.
22

Brandon Duhaime

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · Washington Capitals

Two hundred and thirty-four penalty minutes in 211 games.
42

Martin Fehérváry

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

Seventy-four per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet, at 6-2 and 215.
22

Hendrix Lapierre

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · Washington Capitals

Eight goals in 51 games at 22, from a first-round pick.
79

Charlie Lindgren

Evidence behind this report: No record. No five-on-five record — Lindgren did not play a measured season. Everything on the page is an older line and a judgment.

G · Washington Capitals

Six shutouts — tied for the most of any goaltender in this edition — from a man nobody drafted.
26

Andrew Mangiapane

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

A sixth-round pick with 109 goals in 417 games, at 5-10.
77

Connor McMichael

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

Eighteen goals at 23, on a nineteen-foot median attempt.
15

Sonny Milano

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

Fifteen goals on 50 shots — 30.0 per cent, the highest rate in this edition among men who took forty.
63

Ivan Miroshnichenko

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 243 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

Twenty-one games at 20, from a twentieth-overall pick.
8

Alex Ovechkin

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

Eight hundred and fifty-three career goals and 312 on the power play, both the largest figures in this edition.
21

Aliaksei Protas

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

Six-six and 250 pounds — the third-heaviest man in this edition.
14

Taylor Raddysh

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · Washington Capitals

Fifteen goals for in 909 minutes — the largest finishing shortfall of anybody arriving here.
57

Trevor van Riemsdyk

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

Undrafted, 601 games, and no power-play goals at all.
3

Matt Roy

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

A seventh-round pick with a career plus-67, and no power-play goals at all.
38

Rasmus Sandin

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · Washington Capitals

Seventy career assists and no power-play goals at all.
23

Michael Sgarbossa

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 261 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · Washington Capitals

Undrafted, and 90 NHL games across eight seasons.
17

Dylan Strome

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · Washington Capitals

Sixty-seven points at 6-4, on half his attempts from inside twenty feet.
48

Logan Thompson

Evidence behind this report: No record. No five-on-five record — Thompson did not play a measured season. Everything on the page is an older line and a judgment.

G · Washington Capitals

Undrafted, with 56 career wins against 32 losses.
19

Jakub Vrana

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 223 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · Washington Capitals

One hundred and ten career goals in 367 games, and two in 21 last season.
43

Tom Wilson

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · Washington Capitals

One thousand four hundred and thirty-two career penalty minutes — the largest total in this edition.

How they were used

2023-24 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.

Forwards

First line

L Alex Ovechkin 48%
C Dylan Strome 1170m
R Tom Wilson 42%

Second line

C Connor McMichael 1044m
C Aliaksei Protas 46%
R Anthony Mantha now CGY 39%

Third line

L Beck Malenstyn now BUF 941m
C Nic Dowd 69%
R Nicolas Aube-Kubel now BUF 58%

Fourth line

L Max Pacioretty now TOR 580m
C Hendrix Lapierre 28%
L Sonny Milano 34%

Defence

First pair

D John Carlson 1538m
D Martin Fehervary 47%

Second pair

D Nick Jensen now OTT 1298m
D Rasmus Sandin 30%

Third pair

D Trevor van Riemsdyk 1183m
D Alexander Alexeyev 17%

Goaltending

By games played

G Charlie Lindgren 50 GP
G Darcy Kuemper now LAK 33 GP
G Hunter Shepard 4 GP