Washington Capitals

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 21 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 224 for, 207 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 49.8% 17th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 49.3% 20th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.22 13th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.74 25th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +1.2 16th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -5.7 20th of 32

Washington Capitals finished close to the chances underneath them at both ends. The record is roughly what the play deserved.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 30.2; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 29.0%; of skater points
From under 26: 27.6%; of skater points
Homegrown: 43.2%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 71.5%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Eight hundred and twenty-two career goals, forty-two of them at thirty-seven, on a club that missed the playoffs for the first time in nine years.

Who this names 9 of 21 on the roster · 46% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Alexander Alexeyev, Nic Dowd, Nick Jensen, Darcy Kuemper, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Charlie Lindgren, Anthony Mantha, Sonny Milano, T.J. Oshie, Aliaksei Protas, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Dylan Strome.

What the Quant Says

35-37-10, 80 points, 24th in the league and sixth in the Metropolitan.

255 goals for, 20th. 265 against, 19th. Seventeenth in shot-attempt share, 20th in chance share, 15th at creating chances at even strength, 23rd at suppressing them, 17th on the power play and 18th on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 173 goals scored against 171.8 expected, and 182 conceded against 176.3. The finishing was 16th at plus-1.2 and the goaltending 20th at minus-5.7.

Washington missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Nothing about the record was borrowed in either direction: this club played like the twentieth-best team in hockey and finished twenty-fourth, and the six goals of difference are inside the noise.

Alex Ovechkin scored 42 goals at 37 and stands 822 for his career, seventy-two from the all-time record. Nicklas Backstrom played 39 games after hip resurfacing surgery and passed a thousand career points. Tom Wilson played 33 games. John Carlson played 40 and missed the rest with a skull fracture. Martin Fehérváry is the fastest defenceman in this book.

Rasmus Sandin, Joel Edmundson, Ethan Bear and Nicolas Aube-Kubel arrive. Conor Sheary, Lars Eller, Marcus Johansson, Garnet Hathaway, Erik Gustafsson and Matt Irwin do not.

The core of the 2018 Stanley Cup team is now 38, 36 and 35, and two of the three lost most of last season to surgery. What has arrived is a 23-year-old defenceman with 159 NHL games and three men on short contracts. This is a club that has not decided what it is doing, and the reason is standing in the left circle seventy-two goals from a record nobody expected anyone to reach.

What the Scout Says

Eight hundred and twenty-two goals, and everything else on the page is about age.

Alex Ovechkin has 822 career goals and 299 on the power play — the most of any man in this book — and scored 42 at 37. Washington was 20th in chance share, 16th at finishing and 20th in goaltending, and missed the playoffs for the first time in nine years.

Every framework in this project reads Ovechkin wrong in some direction and the goals keep going in. The rest of the roster is the 2018 club five years older, with a fast young defenceman and a good goaltender having a bad year.

Who this names 9 of 11 forwards · 85% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Nic Dowd.

What the Quant Says

255 goals, 20th in the league.

Washington created 2.694 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 15th, and took 49.8 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 17th, and 49.3 per cent of the expected goals, 20th.

At five-on-five it scored 173 goals against an expectation of 171.8 — a surplus of 1.2, 16th in the league. Almost exactly what the chances were worth.

Alex Ovechkin scored 42 goals on 294 shots at 37, Dylan Strome had 23 and 65 on a one-year contract, Evgeny Kuznetsov 43 assists and 55 points with a minus-26, T.J. Oshie 19 goals in 58 games at 36, Sonny Milano 33 points and Nicklas Backstrom 21 points in 39 games in a season interrupted by hip resurfacing.

Anthony Mantha is 6-5 and 240 and finished below the league conversion rate from every distance. Conor Sheary has gone to Tampa Bay, Lars Eller to Pittsburgh and Marcus Johansson to Minnesota.

What the Scout Says

Eight hundred and twenty-two goals, forty-two of them at thirty-seven.

Alex Ovechkin is 6-3 and 238 and has 1,485 points in 1,347 games, a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe, and he scored 42 goals on 294 shots at 37 from a 34-foot median with 32 per cent of his attempts beyond 40 feet. This book does not have a category for him. The chance share is below average, the deployment is near the softest in the league, the top speed is in the bottom eighth of it, and he scores from a distance at which nobody else scores at all.

Nicklas Backstrom is 6-1 and 202 with 1,032 career points and 761 assists, and played 39 games at 35 after hip resurfacing surgery, at a top speed in the bottom percentile. He is one of the best passers of his generation and the file is now about whether he plays.

Evgeny Kuznetsov is 6-2 and 207 with 386 career assists and had 43 of them on a minus-26, holding the 17th percentile of chance share out of the 94th percentile of starts. The passing is elite and the work rate is the reason a club has to be good to carry him.

Dylan Strome is 6-4 and had 65 points from the 97th percentile of zone starts on a one-year deal. T.J. Oshie is 36 with 290 career goals at 14.7 per cent. Tom Wilson is 6-4 with 1,299 career penalty minutes and played 33 games.

Sonny Milano scored 11 goals from 40 slot shots and nothing at all from anywhere else. Aliaksei Protas is 6-6 and 250 pounds at 22.

Who this names 7 of 8 defencemen · 94% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Alexander Alexeyev.

What the Quant Says

Washington allowed 2.757 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 23rd in the league, and conceded 265 goals, 19th.

At five-on-five it conceded 182 goals against an expectation of 176.3, and the club's goaltending came in 5.7 goals worse than the chances it faced, 20th in the league.

Nick Jensen played 77 games at 20:37 and took 506 defensive-zone draws, the 11th percentile of zone starts on his own club, with a career high in points at 32.

Martin Fehérváry recorded a 24.2 mph top speed — the third-fastest in this book and the fastest of any defenceman in it — and held the 31st percentile of chance share in 20 minutes a night at 23.

John Carlson played 40 games and missed the rest with a skull fracture, with 481 career assists in 927 games and a 99.4 mph shot. Trevor van Riemsdyk is undrafted with 531 games.

Rasmus Sandin arrives from Toronto with 28 assists at 23 and Joel Edmundson from Montreal with a minus-29 and a 101.3 mph shot. Erik Gustafsson has gone to the Rangers.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-four point two miles an hour, from a twenty-three-year-old second-round pick.

Martin Fehérváry is 6-2 and 215 and recorded a 24.2 mph top speed — the third-fastest in this book and the fastest of any defenceman in it — and played 20 minutes a night against other clubs' best lines at 23, from the 10th percentile of offensive-zone ice time. He held the 31st percentile of chance share out of it. The speed is exceptional and measured; the results are below average and measured; and the distance between them is what the next three seasons decide. This is the most interesting young defenceman in the chapter and the numbers do not yet say he is good.

John Carlson is 6-3 and 220 with 481 career assists in 927 games and a 99.4 mph shot, and played 40 games before a skull fracture ended his season. He is 33 and the club has no second option at the point.

Nick Jensen is a fifth-round pick who did not play an NHL game until he was 26 and has now played 484, taking 506 defensive-zone draws at 20:37 a night. The 29 points are incidental; the draws are the file.

Rasmus Sandin arrives at 5-11 and 189 with 28 assists at 23, from soft minutes on two clubs that have never asked him for anything else. Joel Edmundson arrives at 6-5 with a 101.3 mph shot, one goal from 48 point shots, and 23 more goals allowed on his ice than the chances called for. Ethan Bear arrives at 5-11 and 219 pounds on his fourth club in four seasons.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 5.7 goals worse than the chances it faced, 20th in the league.

Darcy Kuemper went 22-26-7 with a .9080 and a 2.87 in 57 games, facing 1,674 shots with 5 shutouts in his first season here. He is 6-5 and 215, has a career .9161 across 356 games and 10,159 shots, and has a Stanley Cup. The gap between the career figure and last season's is the entire question in this chapter.

Charlie Lindgren went 13-11-3 with an .8992 and a 3.05 in 31 games, facing 853. He is undrafted, right-handed — one of four right-handed goaltenders in this book — and his career line across 60 games spread over seven seasons is a .9064.

Two goaltenders, both below .909, on a club that gave up the 23rd-worst chance rate in the league. Kuemper's ten thousand career shots say he is better than the season above; nothing else on this page says the club in front of him is.

What the Scout Says

Ten thousand career shots at .9161, and a .9080 in the first year here.

Darcy Kuemper is 6-5 and 215 and went 22-26-7 with a .9080 in 57 games, on a career .9161 across 356 games and 10,159 shots, with a Stanley Cup. He is very large, positionally sound and unspectacular, and the ten thousand shots underneath the career figure are a great deal more evidence than one season above it. The club is entitled to expect the career number.

Charlie Lindgren is 6-2 and 190, undrafted and right-handed — one of four right-handed goaltenders in this book — and went 13-11-3 with an .8992 in 31 games, on a career .9064 across 60 games spread over seven seasons. He is 29 and last season was the first in which he played more than 10.

Washington got the 20th-ranked goaltending in the league from two men who have between them one season above .916 and a great deal of evidence that one of them is better than he showed.

Who this names 10 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

17th in the league at 6.930 expected goals against per 60, over 4:28 a night — the second-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club.

John Carlson scored 1 shorthanded goal.

T.J. Oshie has 9 career shorthanded goals in 958 games, the most on the roster, and Tom Wilson 7 in 680. Alex Ovechkin has 5 in 1,347, Evgeny Kuznetsov 5 in 680, Nic Dowd 4 in 436 and Nicklas Backstrom 2 in 1,097.

Nic Dowd took 74 attacking-zone draws against 377 defensive ones — the second-hardest deployment in this book — and scored 13 goals on 62 shots out of it. Aliaksei Protas is 6-6 and 250 pounds and took the 4th percentile of zone starts at 22, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel the 4th as well.

Seventeenth by rate on almost the least shorthanded time in the league. The kill is built around a 33-year-old fourth-line centre and it is the most functional part of this roster.

What the Scout Says

Seventeenth in the league, run by a thirty-three-year-old fourth-line centre.

Nic Dowd took 74 attacking-zone draws against 377 defensive ones — the second-hardest deployment in this book — and came out of it with the 62nd percentile of chance share and 13 goals on 62 shots. He is undrafted out of college, has 4 career shorthanded goals in 436 games, and is the most functional player on this roster at what he is asked to do.

T.J. Oshie has 9 career shorthanded goals in 958 games, the most here, and Tom Wilson 7 in 680 with 1,299 career penalty minutes.

Aliaksei Protas is 6-6 and 250 pounds and took the 4th percentile of zone starts at 22. Nicolas Aube-Kubel took the 4th as well at the 91st percentile of top speed.

Joel Edmundson arrives at 6-5 having taken the 5th percentile of zone starts in Montreal. Seventeenth by rate on almost the least shorthanded time in the league, and the club takes very few penalties because half its forwards cannot skate fast enough to take one.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 19 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2022-23.

Alexander Alexeyev

D · Washington Capitals

A first-round pick with thirty-three NHL games and no goals in any of them.

Nicolas Aube-Kubel

RW · Washington Capitals

The fourth percentile of zone starts, and two goals from thirty-one slot shots.

Nicklas Backstrom

C · Washington Capitals

A thousand and thirty-two points, and a top speed in the bottom percentile.

Ethan Bear

D · Washington Capitals

Five foot eleven and two hundred and nineteen pounds, and one goal from forty-six point shots.

John Carlson

D · Washington Capitals

Forty games, a skull fracture, and seventy-eight shots from the point.

Nic Dowd

C · Washington Capitals

Seventy-four attacking draws against three hundred and seventy-seven defensive ones — the second-hardest deployment in this book.

Joel Edmundson

D · Washington Capitals

Twenty-three more goals allowed than the chances called for, and one goal from forty-eight point shots at 101 mph.

Martin Fehérváry

D · Washington Capitals

The third-fastest skater in this book and the fastest defenceman in it.

Nick Jensen

D · Washington Capitals

Five hundred and six defensive-zone draws, and a career high in points at thirty-two.

Darcy Kuemper

G · Washington Capitals

A career .9161 across ten thousand shots, and a .9080 in his first year in Washington.

Evgeny Kuznetsov

C · Washington Capitals

Forty-three assists, a minus-26, and the twelfth percentile of chance share out of the 94th percentile of starts.

Charlie Lindgren

G · Washington Capitals

Undrafted, right-handed, and sixty NHL games spread across seven seasons.

Anthony Mantha

RW · Washington Capitals

Six foot five, two hundred and forty pounds, and below the league rate from every distance.

Sonny Milano

LW · Washington Capitals

Eleven goals from forty slot shots, and nothing at all from anywhere else.

T.J. Oshie

RW · Washington Capitals

A career 14.7 per cent shooter at thirty-six, on a nineteen-foot median.

Alex Ovechkin

LW · Washington Capitals

Eight hundred and twenty-two goals, forty-two of them at thirty-seven, and 9.52 per cent from beyond forty feet.

Aliaksei Protas

LW · Washington Capitals

Six foot six and two hundred and fifty pounds, on the fourth percentile of zone starts at twenty-two.

Trevor van Riemsdyk

D · Washington Capitals

Four goals from seventy point shots, on the softest shot on the blue line.

Rasmus Sandin

D · Washington Capitals

Five foot eleven, twenty-eight assists, and a career high by nineteen points.

Dylan Strome

C · Washington Capitals

Sixty-five points on a one-year contract, and the 97th percentile of zone starts.

Tom Wilson

RW · Washington Capitals

Thirteen hundred career penalty minutes, and thirty-three games.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.