Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

80

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Washington Capitals Center

Four hundred and fifty-three career penalty minutes, and 342 points in 516 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CBJ82202848+84960416512.116:38
2018-19CBJ82273461+166420517415.517:43
2019-20CBJ70183149-24910415811.417:56
2020-21CBJ/WPG4691221-8381037611.815:02
2021-22WPG81283260-6106150623312.018:55
2022-23WPG73273663+577110120513.218:27
2023-24LAK82162440-97070414611.015:42
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—516145197342+445343027115712.517:18

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games with Los Angeles, 16 goals and 24 assists for 40 points, 7 on the power play, 70 penalty minutes, 15:42 a night and minus-9, with 4 game-winners. He took 53.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,083 minutes, the 78th percentile, and his ice went 42-45 against an expectation of 49.10-43.07.

Seven goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and two more conceded than they called for. Forty points is the lowest full-season total of his career and it came on a 53.3 per cent chance share.

The Finesse Game

235 attempts at a median of 22 feet with 47 per cent of them from inside twenty and 13 per cent from beyond forty, 150 of those on goal, converted at 11.0 per cent against a career 12.53 across 1,157 shots.

145 career goals and 197 assists in 516 games. Nearly half his attempts came from inside twenty feet at 6-4 and 220 pounds; he carries the puck to the middle and shoots from the top of the crease, and 43 career power-play goals is what that is worth on a first unit.

The Physical Game

He is 6-4 and 220 and took 70 penalty minutes.

453 career penalty minutes in 516 games. He is heavy and forechecks straight through defencemen, and almost a penalty minute a game across seven seasons is what a centre that size costs when he plays the way he is supposed to.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2016 by Columbus, seven seasons, and Washington will be his fourth organisation.

A career plus-4 and 27 game-winners in 516 games. He was the third pick in his draft, he has scored sixty or more points in three different seasons, and he is on his fourth club at 26.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He is heavy and forechecks straight through defencemen, and almost a penalty minute a game across seven seasons is what a centre that size costs when he plays the way he is supposed to.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Nearly half his attempts came from inside twenty feet at 6-4 and 220 pounds; he carries the puck to the middle and shoots from the top of the crease, and 43 career power-play goals is what that is worth on a first unit.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,083 minutes

Expected goals
53.3%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.5%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 45 against. Expected: 49.1 and 43.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
78th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
73rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.76 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.45 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.5 mph
89th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with LAK · 1083 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
LAK took 54.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.3% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,083 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Laferriere52.6%54.6%46.4%
Matt Roy56.1%51.7%55.0%
Vladislav Gavrikov51.6%54.1%54.0%

52.6% together, 54.6% for him apart and 46.4% for Laferriere apart. Laferriere was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Laferriere than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

235 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.