Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

16

Nicolas Aube-Kubel

Buffalo Sabres Right Wing

A Stanley Cup, 183 penalty minutes in 282 games, and the fifth percentile of chances.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19PHI9000+1000020.05:35
2019-20PHI367815+1192014814.611:17
2020-21PHI503912-344000535.711:10
2021-22PHI/COL74111223+11470028712.69:49
2022-23TOR/WSH534812+150000676.011:22
2023-24WSH6061016+4230005810.312:12
2024-25 so far
Career282314778+151832033159.810:54

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 10 assists in 60 games for Washington — 16 points at 12:12 a night, plus-4, on 58 shots at 10.34 per cent, and 23 penalty minutes.

41.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 722 minutes, the 6th percentile. His ice went 29-30 against an expectation of 20.72-29.01 — eight goals scored above expectation against a chance share that says he spent the year in his own end.

The Finesse Game

58 attempts at a median of 33 feet, with 27 per cent from inside 20 and 31 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 10.34 per cent. Thirty-one goals in 282 NHL games.

10 assists. He does not create and he does not carry the puck — the whole of the offensive contribution is arriving first and putting it behind the defence.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 213 and heavy for the height. He finishes every check and he plays with an edge, and he is one of the few forwards this club has who an opponent notices.

183 penalty minutes in 282 games. He will fight and he takes liberties, and he is a fourth-line deterrent rather than a player.

The Intangibles

Forty-eighth overall in 2014 by Philadelphia, a Stanley Cup with Colorado in 2022, and 282 games across six seasons for four clubs.

He was signed here in the summer. A club whose top six is light and whose blue line does not punish anybody has added a fourth-line forward who does nothing else, and the fifth percentile of chances is the honest price of that.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 722 minutes

Expected goals
41.7%
6th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.4%
9th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 30 against. Expected: 20.7 and 29.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
36th
Numbers
6th

The report ranks him 30 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with WSH · 722 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.7% — 5.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 722 minutes at five-on-five — 33rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Beck Malenstyn40.6%45.0%38.3%
Nic Dowd40.9%43.1%42.1%
John Carlson40.2%42.7%48.7%

40.6% together, 45.0% for him apart and 38.3% for Malenstyn apart. He was better away from Malenstyn, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Malenstyn.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

98 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 31% from beyond forty.