Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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29

Beck Malenstyn

Buffalo Sabres Left Wing

Thirty-nine point two per cent of the expected goals — the third percentile, and the worst mark on this roster.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20WSH3000-1000040.09:16
2021-22WSH12101+290001010.09:03
2022-23WSH911202001714.39:55
2023-24WSH8161521-125001986.114:15
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—105816240360021196.713:09

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 15 assists in 81 games for Washington — 21 points at 14:15 a night, minus-1, with 1 game-winner on 98 shots at 6.12 per cent, and 25 penalty minutes. A career high in every column.

39.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 941 minutes, the 3rd percentile — the worst mark on this roster by a distance. His ice went 31-36 against an expectation of 26.54-41.16, so the goals were far kinder than the chances, and the chances were brutal.

The Finesse Game

98 attempts at a median of 21 feet, with 48 per cent from inside 20 and 23 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 6.12 per cent. Eight goals in 105 career games; he shoots from the right places and does not score from them.

15 assists. He does not create and he is not asked to — the job is to forecheck, retrieve, and get the puck out of his own end.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 209, and he forechecks first and finishes every check. He led most lineups he was in for hits, and he wins pucks on the wall against defencemen.

25 penalty minutes in 81 games and 36 in 105 for his career is a genuinely low rate for a forward who plays this way, and on a club that spent 4:54 a game shorthanded it is worth naming. He does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

A hundred and forty-fifth overall in 2016, and 105 NHL games across four seasons at 26, most of the career in the American league.

He was traded here in the summer. A fifth-round pick who becomes a full-time NHL fourth-line forechecker at 26 has earned it, and the 3rd percentile of chances is the assignment as much as the man — he was on the ice against the other side’s best in Washington and it showed.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    10% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 0th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “**6-3 and 209, and he forechecks first and finishes every check.** He led most lineups he was in for hits, and he wins pucks on the wall against defencemen.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**6-3 and 209, and he forechecks first and finishes every check.** He led most lineups he was in for hits, and he wins pucks on the wall against defencemen.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “**6-3 and 209, and he forechecks first and finishes every check.** He led most lineups he was in for hits, and he wins pucks on the wall against defencemen.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “**25 penalty minutes in 81 games and 36 in 105 for his career** is a genuinely low rate for a forward who plays this way, and on a club that spent 4:54 a game shorthanded it is worth naming. He does not retaliate.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create and he is not asked to** — the job is to forecheck, retrieve, and get the puck out of his own end.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 941 minutes

Expected goals
39.2%
3rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41%
3rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 36 against. Expected: 26.5 and 41.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
15th
Numbers
3rd

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
23.6 mph
98th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.95 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.32 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.7 mph
37th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with WSH · 941 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.2% — 8.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 941 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nic Dowd39.8%37.9%42.7%
Nicolas Aube-Kubel40.5%37.7%45.9%
John Carlson36.8%40.9%50.6%

39.8% together, 37.9% for him apart and 42.7% for Dowd apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

133 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.