Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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6

Jakob Chychrun

Washington Capitals Defense

Fourteen goals from the blue line, and seventeen goals of goaltending against him.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17ARI6871320-1447100868.116:40
2017-18ARI5041014+2162011023.920:15
2018-19ARI5351520-12283001174.320:15
2019-20ARI63121426+4385021498.122:26
2020-21ARI56182341-64250317610.223:23
2021-22ARI4771421-20471021415.023:00
2022-23ARI/OTT4892433+7304001446.322:42
2023-24OTT82142741-30607022046.922:23
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—46776140216-693082801011196.821:18

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games with Ottawa, 14 goals and 27 assists for 41 points, 7 on the power play, 60 penalty minutes, 22:23 a night and minus-30, with 2 game-winners. He took 47.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,561 minutes, the 35th percentile, and his ice went 61-85 against an expectation of 62.21-68.44.

Level with the chances at the offensive end and seventeen more conceded than they called for. Seventeen goals of goaltending against him is the largest negative figure of anybody arriving in Washington and none of it is a thing a defenceman controls.

The Finesse Game

319 attempts at a median of 48 feet with 65 per cent of them from beyond forty and 6 per cent from inside twenty, 196 of those on goal, converted at 6.9 per cent against a career 6.79 across 1,119 shots.

Seventy-six career goals and 28 power-play goals in 467 games. Three hundred and nineteen attempts is more than any defenceman on this club took and the shot from the point is the best on the roster; 14 goals is the tenth-largest total of any defenceman in this edition and he has 76 in 467 career games.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 215 and took 60 penalty minutes.

308 career penalty minutes in 467 games. He is solidly built and defends through contact when he has to, but the game is built on skating out of trouble rather than winning it; sixty penalty minutes at twenty-two minutes a night is the cost of the gap being closed late.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2016 by Arizona, eight seasons, and Washington will be his third organisation.

A career minus-69 in 467 games. He was a first-round pick at 18, he has 216 points in eight seasons, and seven of those seasons were spent in Arizona.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:02 a game at five-on-five, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Three hundred and nineteen attempts is more than any defenceman on this club took and the shot from the point is the best on the roster; 14 goals is the tenth-largest total of any defenceman in this edition and he has 76 in 467 career games.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is solidly built and defends through contact when he has to, but the game is built on skating out of trouble rather than winning it; sixty penalty minutes at twenty-two minutes a night is the cost of the gap being closed late.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,561 minutes

Expected goals
47.6%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.9%
54th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 61 for, 85 against. Expected: 62.2 and 68.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
95th
Numbers
35th

The report ranks him 60 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.96 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.09 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
97.6 mph
85th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with OTT · 1561 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
OTT took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.6% — 1.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,561 minutes at five-on-five — 99th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Drake Batherson45.9%48.5%50.6%
Tim Stützle50.3%46.2%51.0%
Brady Tkachuk51.6%45.5%57.7%

45.9% together, 48.5% for him apart and 50.6% for Batherson apart. Batherson was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

319 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 65% from beyond forty.