Washington Capitals

What the Quant Says

288 goals, 2nd in the league, and 7th at creating chances at even strength at 2.683 expected goals per 60. Very good at both, and the gap between them is the season.

At five-on-five the club scored 187 goals against an expectation of 164.3 — a finishing surplus of 22.7 goals, 3rd in the league.

Alex Ovechkin scored 44 goals in 65 games at 39 and passed Wayne Gretzky. Dylan Strome had 82 points with 53 assists. Alexey Protas scored 30 at 6-6 and 250 pounds. Tom Wilson scored 33 with 100 penalty minutes. Pierre-Luc Dubois had 66 points and Connor McMichael 26 goals at 24.

The conversion rates underneath are extraordinary and that is the point. Protas converted 21.1 per cent, Strome 19.5, Wilson 19.5 and Ovechkin 18.6. Four of the club's top six forwards finished at rates almost nobody sustains.

What the Scout Says

The most perimeter shooter in the edition, converting at nearly one in five, and four men who go to the paint.

Alex Ovechkin takes 40 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet at a median of 37 and converted 18.6 per cent. Nobody else in hockey shoots from that far out that often and scores at that rate, and the release from the left circle is the single most identifiable skill in the sport.

Everything else is close range. Pierre-Luc Dubois shoots from a median of 18 feet with 53 per cent inside 20, Connor McMichael from 19 with 50 per cent, Dylan Strome from 21 with 48 and Tom Wilson from 23 with 43. Alexey Protas converted 21.1 per cent, Strome 19.5 and Wilson 19.5.

The distribution is Strome and Dubois. Strome's 53 assists come from holding the puck below the goal line and waiting for the seam; Dubois threw 46 and the pass out of the corner arrives when a teammate becomes open rather than before. Protas's hands at 6-6 are the thing nobody expects.

What the Quant Says

232 goals against, 9th in the league, and 20th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.583 per 60. That is the honest number and the goals column flatters it.

At five-on-five the club conceded 145 goals against an expectation of 159 — fourteen fewer than the chances predicted, which is the crease.

Martin Fehervary's ice went 52-50 against an expectation of 51.52-48.12 and Matt Roy's went 54-42 against 45.95-46.57. Both are enormous distances from what the chances said. John Carlson played 23:34 a night at 35 and threw 46 assists.

Jakob Chychrun scored 20 goals from the blue line and took 48.9 per cent of the chances, the 39th percentile — the worst mark on the pairing chart. Anthony Beauvillier's ice conceded three goals above expectation, which on this roster is second only to Taylor Raddysh's seven.

What the Scout Says

A 35-year-old running the puck, two very good defensive pairings, and nobody who scares anybody.

John Carlson holds the puck at the top of the umbrella until a killing box commits, and 46 assists at 35, in his sixteenth NHL season, is a remarkable number. He defends with position rather than force.

Matt Roy defends the rush better than almost anybody on this roster — he closes gaps early and takes the puck with his stick before contact is needed — and he was a seventh-round pick with a career plus-85 that almost nobody has noticed. Martin Fehervary is 6-2 and 215 and clears the front of his own net by force.

Jakob Chychrun scored 20 goals and carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and he took the worst chance share on the blue line. Rasmus Sandin plays nineteen minutes at 189 pounds and defends with his feet.

Trevor van Riemsdyk is undrafted with 683 games and 25 career goals, and he is exactly what a third pair should look like.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 14.0 goals better than the chances faced, 7th in the league, behind a defence that was 20th at suppressing them. That is the right way round and it was worth a great deal.

Logan Thompson went 31-6-6 with a .9104, a 2.49 average and 2 shutouts in 43 games. He is undrafted, he did not play an NHL game until he was 24, and Vegas traded him for two third-round picks.

Charlie Lindgren went 20-14-3 with an .8944 in 39 games, having posted a .9113 with 6 shutouts the season before. He is also undrafted.

Two undrafted goaltenders shared the crease on the club that finished first in the Eastern Conference, and one of them had a bad year and won twenty games anyway.

What the Scout Says

Two undrafted goaltenders, one of them 6-4 and unbeatable, and one of them at an .8944.

Logan Thompson is 6-4 and 207 and plays deep and large. He sets at the top of the crease, he is square almost without exception, and the frame takes the top of the net away without him having to move for it. The rebound control is good and the glove is quick for the size. The lateral recovery is the cost of the style and it is a real one.

He was undrafted, did not play an NHL game until he was 24, was traded by Vegas for two third-round picks, and then went 31-6-6.

Charlie Lindgren is 6-2 and 190 and small for the modern position, which means the technique has to be exact. The rebound control is the weakness — a career .9052 with an .8944 last year says the second chance goes to the wrong place. The puck-handling is genuinely good.

Twenty wins on an .8944 is the clearest illustration in this edition of why the wins column tells you almost nothing.

What the Quant Says

15th in the league at 7.047 expected goals per 60, over 4:20 a night — the 7th-fewest power-play minutes in hockey. An average unit that does not get much of it.

Alex Ovechkin scored 14 power-play goals and Tom Wilson 11 — twenty-five between two men — with Dylan Strome adding 9, Connor McMichael 4, Pierre-Luc Dubois 4 and Jakob Chychrun 5.

The construction has not changed in fifteen years and it does not need to. John Carlson holds the puck at the top of the umbrella until a killing box commits and the pass goes to the left circle, where Ovechkin has been standing since 2005. Strome's whole value is putting the puck where Ovechkin's stick is going to be.

A unit that is 15th while scoring like this is a unit whose rate is dragged down by shot location and rescued by the man taking the shots.

What the Scout Says

The same five-man construction for fifteen years, and it still works.

John Carlson holds the puck at the top of the umbrella until a killing box commits and the pass goes to the left circle. Dylan Strome's entire value on this club is putting the puck where Alex Ovechkin's stick is going to be, and he threw 53 assists doing it.

Ovechkin scored 14 power-play goals from the same spot he has used for twenty seasons. A goaltender knows exactly where it is coming from and it does not help.

Tom Wilson scored 11 a man up and he is the screen — 6-4 and 225 and standing where the goaltender needs to see through him. Jakob Chychrun's shot from the point produced 5 and it is genuinely heavy from 49 feet.

Fifteenth in the league at 4:20 a night is the least of this club's problems.

What the Quant Says

9th in the league at 6.495 expected goals against per 60, over 5:08 a game — the 2nd-most shorthanded time in hockey. A good unit doing an enormous amount of it.

The volume comes from the top of the roster and it is deliberate. Tom Wilson took 100 penalty minutes, Brandon Duhaime 98, Pierre-Luc Dubois 76, Nic Dowd 56 and Jakob Chychrun 52. This is a club that has chosen to play on the edge and pays 5:08 a game for it.

The killers are good. Matt Roy blocks shots and closes gaps early on 25 penalty minutes in 69 games. Trevor van Riemsdyk kills at 6-3 with 34 in 82. Nic Dowd wins the draw that begins the shift and scored 2 shorthanded goals, and Alexey Protas scored 3 shorthanded goals at 6-6.

Ninth in the league at that workload is a real achievement. It is also 5:08 a game that need not be spent.

What the Scout Says

A very good unit paying for the rest of the roster's behaviour.

Matt Roy blocks shots, closes gaps early, and is the man sent out to protect a lead, on 25 penalty minutes in 69 games. Trevor van Riemsdyk kills at 6-3 and can be trusted with a lead, and both are positionally exact rather than quick.

Up front it is Nic Dowd, who wins the draw that begins the shift and scored 2 shorthanded goals, and Alexey Protas, who scored 3 shorthanded at 6-6 and 250 on 18 penalty minutes in 76 games. A man that size closing on a puck carrier is a genuine problem for a power play.

The fouling is the whole story and it comes from the top six. Tom Wilson took 100 penalty minutes, Brandon Duhaime 98, Pierre-Luc Dubois 76 and Jakob Chychrun 52. Ninth in the league at the 2nd-heaviest workload in hockey is a good unit being asked to do far too much.