Washington Capitals

What the Quant Says

275 goals, 10th in the league, off the 15th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.572 per 60). Five places of difference the right way, and finishing rated plus-15.1, 8th.

Alex Ovechkin scored fifty at 36, off 334 shots and sixteen power-play goals. He has 780 career goals.

Evgeny Kuznetsov took seventy-eight points, his highest since 2018. Tom Wilson scored twenty-four and took fifty-two. Dylan Strome scored twenty-two in Chicago at a 17.5 per cent conversion. Conor Sheary scored nineteen at 5-8 and 180 pounds.

John Carlson added seventy-one points from the blue line, the third-highest total on the roster.

Nicklas Backstrom took thirty-one in forty-seven games and T.J. Oshie twenty-five in forty-four. The two of them missed seventy-three games between them and took forty-five and forty per cent of their scoring on the power play.

The finishing is the season. Ovechkin's ice was seventeen goals better than its expectation, Tom Wilson's sixteen, Nick Jensen's fifteen.

What the Scout Says

Alex Ovechkin at 36 is a set of measurements nobody else in this book produces.

Fifty goals from 334 shots. The longest median shot of all 393 qualified forwards, at 36.8 feet. The 2nd-lowest slot share of the same 393, at twenty-four per cent. The 3rd-hardest shot of the 365 the tracking measures, at 101.5 mph. The 7th-most shots per 60. The most power-play ice of any forward in hockey, at 4:45 a night. And the 2nd-softest zone deployment of 652 skaters.

Every one of those is either a tool or a decision, and together they are the last decade of this franchise. The 19th-lowest mileage of 365 forwards and the 22nd-fewest sprints are the cost of the arrangement, and his ice was still seventeen goals better than its expectation.

Evgeny Kuznetsov is the harder read. Seventy-eight points, 10.34 miles per 60 — the 17th-most of 365 — and the 93rd percentile of sprints, and level possession shares out of the third-softest chair in the league. He hits at the 13th percentile and blocks at the 13th. He and Ovechkin played 1,695 attempts together and only a few hundred apart, so the record cannot separate them and the club never tried.

Tom Wilson is the most improved file. Twenty-four goals at a 15.9 per cent conversion from a 23-foot median, and his ice sixteen goals better than expectation in front. Also 9.94 hits per 60 at the 89th percentile and 1,221 penalty minutes in 647 games — 1.89 a game, the highest rate of any man in this edition with three hundred games.

Dylan Strome arrives from Chicago with the 8th-highest slot share of 393 forwards, the 8th-fewest hits, and a 33rd-percentile attempt share out of the 7th-softest chair of 652.

Conor Sheary scored nineteen at 5-8 and 180 pounds off the 11th-fewest giveaways in the league, and everything the tracking measures about him is ordinary or worse.

Connor McMichael, at 21, took the best pair of possession shares of any Washington forward off the 14th-smallest workload of 393.

What the Quant Says

245 goals against, 12th in the league, off the 9th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.475 per 60). A genuinely good chance-suppression club.

Nick Jensen drew 0.857 penalties per 60 against 0.367 taken — a net of plus 0.490, the best of all 202 defencemen who played forty games. His ice went 64-37 against an expectation of 48.77-46.85: a combined margin of twenty-five goals, the 9th-largest of the 644 skaters in this edition who played four hundred five-on-five minutes.

Dmitry Orlov went plus-25 out of the 157th-hardest chair of 652 skaters, with a surplus at both ends, and his shot is 101.5 mph — the 4th-hardest of the 192 tracked defencemen, at 5-11.

John Carlson took 3:59 a night on the power play, the most of all 202 defencemen, and 1.827 even-strength points per 60, the 4th-highest. He was also measured the 16th-slowest of the 192 the tracking covers.

Martin Fehervary hit at the 11th-most of 202 and sprinted at the 9th-most of 192, in his first full season at 22.

Trevor van Riemsdyk recorded the 7th-fewest hits and the 7th-fewest giveaways of all 202 defencemen, with the 16th-most blocks.

What the Scout Says

Nick Jensen is the file this chapter should be remembered for and almost nobody will name him.

A fifth-round pick, 32 years old, nineteen minutes a night out of 39.0 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 73rd-hardest chair of 652 skaters — with no power-play time at all in 407 career games. His ice went 64-37 against an expectation of 48.77-46.85: fifteen goals better in front, ten fewer against, a combined margin of twenty-five that is the 9th-largest of the 644 skaters in this edition.

And 0.857 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.367 taken is a net of plus 0.490 — the best of all 202 qualified defencemen. He covers the 8th-most ground per 60 of the 192 the tracking follows and sprints at the 14th-most.

The qualification is the pairing. With Dmitry Orlov he took 52.8 per cent of the attempts across 1,607; apart from him, 46.4. Nothing in this file has been tested without Orlov beside it.

Orlov himself is the small-defenceman file. 5-11 and 215 pounds, twenty-one minutes a night out of the 157th-hardest chair of 652, plus-25, and his ice eight and a half goals better in front and eight fewer against. Twelve goals from 127 shots is the 9th-highest conversion of 202 defencemen, off a 46-foot median that is the 17th-shortest at the position and an 89th-percentile slot share. His shot is 101.5 mph — the same figure the tracking gives Ovechkin, from a man eight inches shorter and standing forty feet further out.

John Carlson is the offence and the age. The most power-play ice of any defenceman in the league, the 4th-highest even-strength point rate, seventeen goals at 8.7 per cent against a career 6.4 — and the 16th-slowest top speed of 192, the 25th percentile of sprints and the 27th of mileage.

Martin Fehervary at 22 hits at the 11th-most of 202 and sprints at the 9th-most of 192, and three of the club's top forwards took a share seven points better away from him.

Trevor van Riemsdyk is the quietest useful file in the batch: the 7th-fewest hits, the 7th-fewest giveaways, the 16th-most blocks, the 9th-most penalties drawn, the 6th-softest shot of 192, and one goal in seventy-two games.

What the Quant Says

Plus-1.0 goals saved above expectation, 14th in the league. The five-on-five ledger: 156 conceded against an expectation of 157.

Four goaltenders dressed and all four are gone. Ilya Samsonov took forty-four games and has gone to Toronto; Vitek Vanecek took forty-two and has gone to New Jersey; Zach Fucale took four and Pheonix Copley two.

Darcy Kuemper arrives from Colorado with a .9213 across 1,754 shots, which is 5th of the fifty-three goaltenders who played twenty-five games. He has 8,485 career shots at .9177 across ten seasons — seven of them between .9145 and .9280.

Colorado rated exactly level in goaltending, 0.0 goals saved above expectation, and won the Stanley Cup. A .9213 in front of the 7th-best attempt share and the 3rd-best finishing in the league was worth nothing above the model.

Charlie Lindgren arrives from St Louis with five games and 118 shots at .9576, and 889 career shots at .9134.

Fifty-seven games is Kuemper's career high, and the crease he inherits took eighty-two games from four men.

What the Scout Says

Washington used four goaltenders last season and replaced all four.

Ilya Samsonov's forty-four games have gone to Toronto and Vitek Vanecek's forty-two to New Jersey. The crease rated plus-1.0, 14th in the league, and conceded 156 at five-on-five against an expectation of 157 — which is to say it did precisely what was asked and nothing more.

Darcy Kuemper arrives with the best-evidenced record of any goaltender in this batch. 8,485 career shots at .9177 across ten seasons, seven of which sit between .9145 and .9280, and last year's .9213 across 1,754 shots is 5th of the fifty-three goaltenders who played twenty-five games.

The number to be careful with is his goals-saved figure, because Colorado's crease rated exactly 0.0 — 16th in the league — while he was posting a .9213 and the club was winning the Stanley Cup. A save percentage that good in front of the 7th-best attempt share in hockey is worth nothing above expectation, because the model expects it.

Washington will do something similar to him. The club finished 9th in expected goals against per sixty at even strength and 10th on the penalty kill. A structure that suppresses chances flatters the save percentage and deflates the goals-saved figure, and the reader should expect a high number in the first column and a modest one in the second.

The real question is volume. Fifty-seven games is his career high, and he inherits a crease that split eighty-two games four ways. Behind him is Charlie Lindgren, undrafted, 28, with 889 career shots — of which 457 came in one season five years ago at .9081 — and five games last year at .9576 on 118 shots.

That is an upgrade on last season's arrangement and a considerable increase in what one man carries.

What the Quant Says

20th in the league at 5.896 expected goals per 60, over 5:07 a night — the 6th-largest workload. A below-average unit given more time than all but five clubs.

Alex Ovechkin took 4:45 a night, the most of all 393 forwards who played forty games, and scored sixteen.

John Carlson ran the point at 3:59 — the most of all 202 defencemen — and scored seven, with thirty-five per cent of his seventy-one points there.

Evgeny Kuznetsov took 3:44 and scored eight. Nicklas Backstrom 3:40 and scored one, with forty-five per cent of his thirty-one points on it. T.J. Oshie 3:29 and scored four, with forty per cent of twenty-five.

Four forwards and a defenceman all inside the top thirteen of the league for power-play ice, on a unit ranked 23rd.

Backstrom's forty-five per cent and Oshie's forty are the two highest power-play dependencies on the roster and both men are over 34.

What the Scout Says

Twentieth in the league on the 6th-largest workload. That is the least efficient use of power-play time in this batch of three clubs and the arrangement behind it is very old.

Alex Ovechkin takes 4:45 a night, which is the most of all 393 qualified forwards, and scored sixteen. The unit is built to put the puck on his stick in one place, and the shot chart in his own file says which place: a 36.8-foot median, the longest in the league.

John Carlson takes 3:59, the most of any defenceman in the league, and scored seven with thirty-five per cent of seventy-one points there.

Evgeny Kuznetsov 3:44, Nicklas Backstrom 3:40, T.J. Oshie 3:29. Five men inside the top twenty of the league for power-play ice at their positions, on a unit that finished 20th.

The dependence figures are the warning. Backstrom took forty-five per cent of his points on it — the 98th percentile — and Oshie forty, the 96th. Both are over 34, both played fewer than fifty games, and both have five-on-five point rates in the bottom third of the league.

Dylan Strome arrives having taken thirty-three per cent of his points on Chicago's unit and Sonny Milano twenty-nine per cent on Anaheim's, which does not obviously change the shape of the problem.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 5.984 expected goals against per 60, over 4:35 a night — the 22nd-largest workload. A good unit, used less than most.

Connor Brown arrives from Ottawa having taken 2:38 a night short-handed, the 2nd-most of all 393 forwards, with a short-handed goal and the 10th-fewest hits in the league.

Nic Dowd took 1:57 at the 91st percentile among forwards, with 3.48 blocks per 60 — the 11th-most of 393 — out of the 7th-hardest chair of 652 skaters.

On the blue line: Trevor van Riemsdyk 2:39 at the 87th percentile, Nick Jensen 2:32 at the 80th, Martin Fehervary 1:47, John Carlson 1:43.

Tom Wilson took 1:36 and Lars Eller 1:38.

The discipline underneath it is real. John Carlson took 0.29 penalties per 60 at the 10th percentile among defencemen; Marcus Johansson took 0.108 per 60, the 6th-fewest of 393 forwards, and four penalty minutes in sixty-nine games.

What the Scout Says

Tenth in the league at 5.984 expected goals against per 60, over the 22nd-largest workload. A good unit, and the club did not need it often.

The personnel is the best-assembled part of this roster. Nic Dowd takes 1:57 a night at the 91st percentile among forwards, blocks at the 11th-most of all 393, and does it out of 24.5 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 7th-hardest chair of 652 skaters. Garnet Hathaway takes 1:10 out of the 18th-hardest, blocks at the 7th-most and hits at the 9th-most.

Connor Brown arrives having taken 2:38 a night in Ottawa, the 2nd-most of all 393 forwards, with the 10th-fewest hits in the league and the 20th-fewest penalties taken. A penalty-killer who never touches anybody is an unusual and useful thing.

Trevor van Riemsdyk takes 2:39 with the 16th-most blocks of 202 defencemen and Nick Jensen 2:32 with the best penalty differential at the position.

The discipline is a club-wide habit rather than a unit's. Marcus Johansson took four penalty minutes in sixty-nine games. John Carlson took twenty in seventy-eight. Alex Ovechkin took eighteen in seventy-seven.

The exceptions are Tom Wilson at 1.32 penalties per 60 and Garnet Hathaway at 1.59, and both draw more than they give away.