Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

43

Tom Wilson

Washington Capitals Right Wing

One thousand four hundred and thirty-two career penalty minutes — the largest total in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14WSH823710+1151100634.87:56
2014-15WSH6741317-1172000795.110:56
2015-16WSH8271623+3163001997.112:55
2016-17WSH8271219+9133000957.412:56
2017-18WSH78142135+1018701112311.415:59
2018-19WSH63221840+1112832213016.918:09
2019-20WSH68212344-39351515413.618:16
2020-21WSH47132033+1964148315.716:32
2021-22WSH78242852+139842515115.918:35
2022-23WSH3313922-13784018215.817:37
2023-24WSH74181735-1913352316910.718:06
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—754146184330+12143226922122811.914:58

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

74 games, 18 goals and 17 assists for 35 points, 5 on the power play, 2 shorthanded, 133 penalty minutes, 18:06 a night and minus-19, with 3 game-winners. He took 50.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,007 minutes, the 56th percentile, and his ice went 25-46 against an expectation of 40.19-39.50.

Fifteen goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and seven more conceded than they called for. Twenty-five goals for in 1,007 minutes on an even chance share is one of the two largest finishing shortfalls in this chapter and it has nothing to do with how he played.

The Finesse Game

239 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 45 per cent of them from inside twenty and 24 per cent from beyond forty, 165 of those on goal, converted at 10.7 per cent against a career 11.89 across 1,228 shots.

146 career goals and 26 power-play goals in 754 games. He goes to the net front on the power play and finishes from there; 45 per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet and a career 11.89 per cent says the hands are better than the reputation suggests.

The Physical Game

He is 6-4 and 225 and took 133 penalty minutes — the third-largest total in this edition.

1,432 career penalty minutes in 754 games — the largest total of anybody in this edition. He hits everything that moves, fights when the club needs one, and takes the retaliation penalty when somebody goes after a teammate; almost two penalty minutes a game across eleven seasons is a way of playing, not a bad month.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2012 by Washington, eleven seasons, one organisation, and 330 points in 754 games.

A career plus-12 and 9 shorthanded goals in 754 games. He is 30, he has played every one of his 754 NHL games for this club, and he has more career penalty minutes than anybody in this edition, in five hundred and fifty-seven fewer games than the man behind him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 18 goals late or in overtime, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He hits everything that moves, fights when the club needs one, and takes the retaliation penalty when somebody goes after a teammate; almost two penalty minutes a game across eleven seasons is a way of playing, not a bad month.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He goes to the net front on the power play and finishes from there; 45 per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet and a career 11.89 per cent says the hands are better than the reputation suggests.”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He is 30, he has played every one of his 754 NHL games for this club, and he has more career penalty minutes than anybody in this edition, in five hundred and fifty-seven fewer games than the man behind him.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,007 minutes

Expected goals
50.4%
56th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.4%
58th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 25 for, 46 against. Expected: 40.2 and 39.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
56th

The report ranks him 42 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 84 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 74 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.53 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.92 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.6 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1007 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.4% — 3.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,007 minutes at five-on-five — 58th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Ovechkin49.1%52.1%44.1%
Dylan Strome59.4%40.7%50.7%
John Carlson54.1%47.6%45.4%

49.1% together, 52.1% for him apart and 44.1% for Ovechkin apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Ovechkin behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

239 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.