This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Nic Dowd
Washington Capitals Center
Twelve goals on 61 shots, on the lowest chance share of any forward on the club.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | LAK | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 10:35 |
| 2016-17 | LAK | 70 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -15 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 78 | 7.7 | 12:27 |
| 2017-18 | LAK/VAN | 56 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51 | 5.9 | 10:32 |
| 2018-19 | WSH | 64 | 8 | 14 | 22 | +10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 47 | 17.0 | 10:18 |
| 2019-20 | WSH | 56 | 7 | 8 | 15 | +11 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 13.5 | 10:50 |
| 2020-21 | WSH | 56 | 11 | 4 | 15 | +4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 68 | 16.2 | 14:22 |
| 2021-22 | WSH | 64 | 10 | 14 | 24 | +10 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 11.1 | 14:16 |
| 2022-23 | WSH | 65 | 13 | 12 | 25 | +6 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 62 | 21.0 | 13:21 |
| 2023-24 | WSH | 64 | 12 | 10 | 22 | -2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 61 | 19.7 | 15:12 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 500 | 70 | 79 | 149 | +15 | 251 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 512 | 13.7 | 12:41 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
64 games, 12 goals and 10 assists for 22 points, 47 penalty minutes, 15:12 a night and minus-2, with 2 game-winners. He took 40.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 805 minutes — the 5th percentile and the lowest share of any forward on this club — and his ice went 26-29 against an expectation of 22.51-33.28.
Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and four goals of goaltending above them. Forty point four per cent of the chances and a minus-2 is a checking centre keeping his head above water in the hardest ice on the club.
The Finesse Game
84 attempts at a median of 21 feet with 49 per cent of them from inside twenty and 12 per cent from beyond forty, 59 of those on goal, converted at 19.7 per cent against a career 13.67 across 512 shots.
Seventy career goals and 4 shorthanded goals in 500 games. Twelve goals on 61 shots is a 19.7 per cent rate against a career 13.67, which will not repeat; half his attempts came from inside twenty feet and that part will.
The Physical Game
He is 6-2 and 195 and took 47 penalty minutes.
251 career penalty minutes in 500 games. He forechecks hard, wins pucks below the goal line and takes the defensive-zone start every time; forty-seven penalty minutes in fifteen minutes a night is what the assignment costs.
The Intangibles
One hundred and ninety-eighth overall in 2009 by Los Angeles, nine seasons, and Washington is his third organisation.
A career plus-15 and 4 shorthanded goals in 500 games. He was a seventh-round pick who did not reach the league until he was 25, and he is 34 and still taking the hardest minutes on a club.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best
11% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 0th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
“A career plus-15 and 4 shorthanded goals in 500 games.”
“He forechecks hard, wins pucks below the goal line and takes the defensive-zone start every time; forty-seven penalty minutes in fifteen minutes a night is what the assignment costs.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 805 minutes
- Expected goals
- 40.4%
- 5th pct
- Shot attempts
- 41.3%
- 4th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 29 against. Expected: 22.5 and 33.3.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 85 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 64 games
- Top speed
- 21.7 mph
- 27th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.89 a game
- Distance
- 2.51 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 85.7 mph
- 42nd pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 805 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 40.4% — 6.8 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 805 minutes at five-on-five — 39th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beck Malenstyn | 39.8% | 42.7% | 37.9% |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 40.5% | 40.1% | 44.1% |
| John Carlson | 42.3% | 38.8% | 48.9% |
39.8% together, 42.7% for him apart and 37.9% for Malenstyn apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
84 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.