Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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42

Martin Fehérváry

Washington Capitals Defense

Seventy-four per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet, at 6-2 and 215.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20WSH6011-2600070.015:59
2021-22WSH798917+1526012968.319:39
2022-23WSH6761016-1131001916.620:00
2023-24WSH6631316-724000614.919:38
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—218173350-5870132556.719:39

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

66 games, 3 goals and 13 assists for 16 points, 24 penalty minutes, 19:38 a night and minus-7. He took 47.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,152 minutes, the 35th percentile, and his ice went 36-47 against an expectation of 43.18-47.58.

Seven goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and level at the other end. Thirty-six goals for in 1,152 minutes is the lowest rate of any defenceman on this club who played a thousand.

The Finesse Game

84 attempts at a median of 46 feet with 74 per cent of them from beyond forty and 10 per cent from inside twenty, 59 of those on goal, converted at 4.9 per cent against a career 6.67 across 255 shots.

Thirty-three career assists against 17 goals in 218 games. Eighty-four attempts in 66 games at nearly twenty minutes a night is very little shooting; the first pass out of the zone is the job and the offensive half of the game is somebody else’s.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 215 and took 24 penalty minutes.

Eighty-seven career penalty minutes in 218 games. He defends through contact, clears the crease and finishes checks at the wall, and four seasons of it have cost him less than half a penalty minute a game.

The Intangibles

Forty-sixth overall in 2018 by Washington, four seasons, one organisation, and 50 points in 218 games.

A career minus-5 in 218 games. He is 25, he was a second-round pick by this club, and he took nineteen and a half minutes a night last season on a blue line being rebuilt around him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He defends through contact, clears the crease and finishes checks at the wall, and four seasons of it have cost him less than half a penalty minute a game.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Eighty-four attempts in 66 games at nearly twenty minutes a night is very little shooting; the first pass out of the zone is the job and the offensive half of the game is somebody else's.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,152 minutes

Expected goals
47.6%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.2%
30th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 47 against. Expected: 43.2 and 47.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
35th

The report ranks him 49 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 66 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
93rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
1.26 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.69 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.5 mph
62nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1152 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.6% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,152 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
John Carlson49.2%44.9%46.6%
Dylan Strome55.5%44.1%53.8%
Alex Ovechkin50.4%46.5%45.0%

49.2% together, 44.9% for him apart and 46.6% for Carlson apart. He was worse away from Carlson, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Carlson did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

84 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 45 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.