Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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8

Alex Ovechkin

Washington Capitals Left Wing

Eight hundred and fifty-three career goals and 312 on the power play, both the largest figures in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2005-06WSH815254106+252213542512.221:37
2006-07WSH82464692-1952160839211.721:23
2007-08WSH826547112+28402201144614.623:06
2008-09WSH795654110+8721911052810.623:00
2009-10WSH725059109+4589130736813.621:48
2010-11WSH79325385+244170113678.721:22
2011-12WSH78382765-826130330312.519:48
2012-13WSH48322456+236160422014.520:53
2013-14WSH78512879-35482401038613.220:33
2014-15WSH81532881+10582501139513.420:20
2015-16WSH79502171+2153190839812.620:19
2016-17WSH82333669+650170731310.518:22
2017-18WSH82493887+332170735513.820:09
2018-19WSH81513889+740180533815.120:55
2019-20WSH68481967-1230130331115.420:40
2020-21WSH45241842-71290618213.219:30
2021-22WSH77504090+818161533415.020:34
2022-23WSH73423375-1648140329414.320:12
2023-24WSH79313465-2220130527211.419:13
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—14268536971550+458173125129662712.920:45

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 31 goals and 34 assists for 65 points, 13 on the power play, 20 penalty minutes, 19:13 a night and minus-22, with 5 game-winners. He took 46.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,135 minutes, the 28th percentile, and his ice went 41-61 against an expectation of 45.62-52.75.

Five goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and eight more conceded than they called for. Thirty-one goals in a nineteenth season is the story and the minus-22 is what a club that scored 220 goals does to everybody on it.

The Finesse Game

397 attempts at a median of 38 feet with 43 per cent of them from beyond forty and 22 per cent from inside twenty, 275 of those on goal, converted at 11.4 per cent against a career 12.87 across 6,627 shots.

853 career goals and 312 career power-play goals in 1,426 games, both the largest figures in this edition. Forty-three per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet, which is a share no other forward on this club approaches; he shoots from the left circle because it goes in from there and it has for nineteen years.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 238 and took 20 penalty minutes.

817 career penalty minutes in 1,426 games. He is enormously heavy and still finishes checks along the wall at 38; the hitting has never been the reputation but the penalty totals across nineteen seasons say it has always been part of the game.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2004 by Washington, nineteen seasons, one organisation, and 1,550 points in 1,426 games.

A career plus-45 and 129 game-winners in 1,426 games. He is 39, he has played every one of his 1,426 NHL games for this club, and he scored 31 goals last season on a team that finished twenty-eighth in the league in scoring.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    42.8% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    74% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Forty-three per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet, which is a share no other forward on this club approaches; he shoots from the left circle because it goes in from there and it has for nineteen years.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is enormously heavy and still finishes checks along the wall at 38; the hitting has never been the reputation but the penalty totals across nineteen seasons say it has always been part of the game.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “A career plus-45 and 129 game-winners in 1,426 games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,135 minutes

Expected goals
46.4%
28th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
34th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 61 against. Expected: 45.6 and 52.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
28th

The report ranks him 70 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 84 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 79 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
26th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.18 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.86 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.4 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1135 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.4% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,135 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dylan Strome52.9%39.4%55.6%
Tom Wilson49.1%44.1%52.1%
John Carlson48.2%45.0%47.4%

52.9% together, 39.4% for him apart and 55.6% for Strome apart. He was worse away from Strome, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Strome did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

397 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 22% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 43% from beyond forty.