Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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3

Matt Roy

Washington Capitals Defense

A seventh-round pick with a career plus-67, and no power-play goals at all.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19LAK25246-18001345.917:08
2019-20LAK7041418+16100001123.618:07
2020-21LAK44281008000573.519:15
2021-22LAK6721921+23280001531.320:59
2022-23LAK8291726+8220121356.718:47
2023-24LAK8152025+21420011353.720:54
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—3692482106+671180146263.819:28

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games with Los Angeles, 5 goals and 20 assists for 25 points, 42 penalty minutes, 20:54 a night and plus-21, with 1 game-winner. He took 55.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,416 minutes, the 89th percentile, and his ice went 64-50 against an expectation of 63.59-51.40.

Level with the chances at the offensive end and a goal of goaltending above them. Fifty-five point three per cent of the chances is the highest share of anybody who will play on this blue line and the plus-21 is the largest figure of anybody arriving.

The Finesse Game

200 attempts at a median of 56 feet with 75 per cent of them from beyond forty and 10 per cent from inside twenty, 129 of those on goal, converted at 3.7 per cent against a career 3.83 across 626 shots.

Eighty-two career assists and no power-play goals at all in 369 games. There is very little offence here and none of it is manufactured; the puck goes at the net from the blue line or up the wall on the first look, and the value is entirely at the other end.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 220 and took 42 penalty minutes.

118 career penalty minutes in 369 games. He is heavy and clears his own crease and defends the wall without reaching; six seasons of twenty-minute assignments for a hundred and eighteen penalty minutes is the whole argument for him.

The Intangibles

One hundred and ninety-fourth overall in 2015 by Los Angeles, six seasons, and Washington will be his second organisation.

A career plus-67 in 369 games from a seventh-round pick. He is 29, he has never scored more than 25 points in a season, and he has finished on the right side of the ledger in four of his six.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He is heavy and clears his own crease and defends the wall without reaching; six seasons of twenty-minute assignments for a hundred and eighteen penalty minutes is the whole argument for him.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “There is very little offence here and none of it is manufactured; the puck goes at the net from the blue line or up the wall on the first look, and the value is entirely at the other end.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “A career plus-67 in 369 games from a seventh-round pick.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,416 minutes

Expected goals
55.3%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.5%
82nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 64 for, 50 against. Expected: 63.6 and 51.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
89th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
87th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.52 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.85 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.2 mph
87th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with LAK · 1416 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
LAK took 54.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.3% — 1.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,416 minutes at five-on-five — 95th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vladislav Gavrikov54.2%58.0%51.0%
Trevor Moore56.8%54.7%58.6%
Phillip Danault55.5%55.2%58.4%

54.2% together, 58.0% for him apart and 51.0% for Gavrikov apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Gavrikov behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

200 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.