Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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21

Aliaksei Protas

Washington Capitals Left Wing

Six-six and 250 pounds — the third-heaviest man in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22WSH33369+40000348.811:50
2022-23WSH5841115-812000834.811:31
2023-24WSH7862329-380011135.313:45
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—169134053-7200012305.712:37

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

78 games, 6 goals and 23 assists for 29 points, 8 penalty minutes, 13:45 a night and minus-3, with 1 game-winner. He took 50.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 964 minutes, the 58th percentile, and his ice went 42-42 against an expectation of 40.24-39.08.

Two goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and three more conceded than they called for. Twenty-nine points is a career high by fourteen and 8 penalty minutes at that size is the strangest number on the club.

The Finesse Game

161 attempts at a median of 22 feet with 46 per cent of them from inside twenty and 17 per cent from beyond forty, 108 of those on goal, converted at 5.3 per cent against a career 5.65 across 230 shots.

Forty career assists against 13 goals in 169 games. He gets to the inside constantly and cannot finish from there — a career 5.65 per cent across two hundred and thirty shots is a very low rate for a man who shoots from twenty-two feet — and the passing is what has kept him in the lineup.

The Physical Game

He is 6-6 and 250 — the third-heaviest man in this edition — and took 8 penalty minutes in 78 games.

Twenty career penalty minutes in 169 games. Eight penalty minutes in a full season at 6-6 and 250 pounds is remarkable; he holds position in front of the net and protects the puck with his frame without ever crossing into anything a referee notices.

The Intangibles

Ninety-first overall in 2019 by Washington, three seasons, one organisation, and 53 points in 169 games.

A career minus-7 in 169 games. He is 23, he was a third-round pick by this club, and he is the largest forward on a roster that badly needs somebody to stand in front of a goaltender.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.10 penalty minutes a game over 78, 3rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “Eight penalty minutes in a full season at 6-6 and 250 pounds is remarkable; he holds position in front of the net and protects the puck with his frame without ever crossing into anything a referee notices.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He gets to the inside constantly and cannot finish from there — a career 5.65 per cent across two hundred and thirty shots is a very low rate for a man who shoots from twenty-two feet — and the passing is what has kept him in the lineup.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 964 minutes

Expected goals
50.7%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.7%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 42 against. Expected: 40.2 and 39.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
59th

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 78 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
76th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.73 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.19 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.5 mph
79th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 964 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WSH took 47.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.7% — 3.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 964 minutes at five-on-five — 53rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor McMichael51.8%49.7%43.2%
Anthony Mantha52.5%49.3%56.3%
John Carlson53.1%49.3%46.1%

51.8% together, 49.7% for him apart and 43.2% for McMichael apart. McMichael was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for McMichael than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

161 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.