Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Zachary Aston-Reese

Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing

The 6th-most hits and the 12th-fewest giveaways of 393 forwards, on a 6th-percentile shot.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18PIT16426+220012020.011:23
2018-19PIT438917+12260117610.513:39
2019-20PIT576713+628010986.114:25
2020-21PIT459615+10150107911.414:37
2021-22PIT/ANA6951015+928000786.413:02
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—230323466+39990323519.113:41

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

69 games between Pittsburgh and Anaheim, 5 goals and 10 assists at 13:02 a night, plus-9, twenty-eight penalty minutes, 78 shots. None of the five came on the power play. Undrafted, and 230 NHL games and sixty-six points across five seasons out of it.

The Finesse Game

0.67 giveaways per 60 is the 3rd percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games — the 12th-fewest of the 393 — against 1.27 takeaways at the 24th.

5.20 shots per 60 is the 15th percentile at 6.4 per cent, the 10th — five goals from seventy-eight attempts, from a 24-foot median with fifty-four per cent from the slot. The location is fine and nothing goes in.

1.13 even-strength points per 60 is the 13th percentile and none of his fifteen points came on the power play — one second a night, the 1st percentile.

48.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 41st percentile, out of 34.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 42nd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

A near-even chance share out of the forty-second-hardest chair in hockey is the case for him, and it was made on two clubs, one of which finished 11th in the league and one 23rd.

The Physical Game

15.41 hits per 60 is the 6th-most of all 393 forwards, at 6-1 and 203 pounds on a 13:02 shift.

2.80 blocks per 60 is the 90th percentile and twenty-eight penalty minutes came out of sixty-nine games — he hits more than almost anyone in the league and stays out of the box.

0.40 penalties drawn per 60 is the 11th percentile.

The Intangibles

23.3 mph is the 92nd percentile and 8.0 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 76th, against 9.90 miles per 60 at the 72nd.

And his shot is 82.7 mph — the 26th-softest of the 557 skaters the tracking measures.

He is 28, undrafted, with sixty-six points in 230 games. The hitting, the blocks, the giveaway ledger, the chair and the skating are five real things and they make a fourth-line forward worth a roster spot. Fifteen points and a shot in the bottom six per cent of the league are why that is the whole of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    35% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 8th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and 230 NHL games and sixty-six points across five seasons out of it.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “15.41 hits per 60 is the 6th-most of all 393 forwards, at 6-1 and 203 pounds on a 13:02 shift.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 802 minutes

Expected goals
48.8%
46th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 20 against. Expected: 27.3 and 28.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
74th
Numbers
46th

The report ranks him 28 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 69 games

Top speed
23.3 mph
94th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.15 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.7 mph
29th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with PIT · 605 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ANA took 48.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.8% — 0.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
802 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Teddy Blueger48.5%49.0%51.3%
Brock McGinn49.3%48.5%49.4%
Dominik Simon53.1%46.9%52.4%

48.5% together, 49.0% for him apart and 51.3% for Blueger apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

99 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.