Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

98

Victor Mete

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

A 5-9 defenceman with five goals in 236 games and the 6th-percentile shot velocity.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18MTL49077+54000430.015:35
2018-19MTL7101313+176000650.017:46
2019-20MTL514711+520001577.016:00
2020-21MTL/OTT28145+88000205.015:48
2021-22OTT37077-194000270.014:37
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—23653843+16420012122.416:12

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

37 games for Ottawa, no goals and 7 assists at 14:37 a night, minus-19, four penalty minutes, 27 shots. Hundredth overall in 2016 by Montreal — the fourth round — five seasons, 236 games, 43 points.

Thirty-seven games is short of the forty this book requires before it will place a man in the league distribution, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

Five goals in 236 NHL games across five seasons. Twenty-seven shots last year from a 46-foot median with ten per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet, and none of them went in.

44.5 per cent of the expected goals across 460 five-on-five minutes, out of 42.2 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 121st-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 10-29 against an expectation of 16.91-21.09. Seven short in front and eight more against than the model asked, across thirty-seven games, which is where a minus-19 in a third of a season comes from.

Ottawa finished 21st in the standings and 21st in attempt share, so the club explains part of it and not that part.

The Physical Game

5-9 and 187 pounds, the smallest defenceman on this roster, and four penalty minutes in thirty-seven games — forty-two across a 236-game career. He does not take penalties and he cannot afford to.

The Intangibles

A 23.0 mph top speed would be the 87th percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers if he had the games to qualify, against 1.2 bursts a game and 2.18 miles a game.

The speed is the whole asset and it is the thing a 5-9 defenceman needs most. Nothing here measures edges, pivots or how he escapes a forecheck, which for this archetype is where the case would have to be made, and the record cannot make it.

His shot is 83.4 mph, the 6th percentile — among the twenty softest of the 192 defencemen the tracking measures.

He is 24, with forty-three points and five goals in 236 games across five seasons and two organisations. The speed and 236 NHL games before 25 are the case. No goals in thirty-seven games, one of the softest shots at the position and a minus-19 in a third of a season are why a small defenceman without production is a seventh man.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 460 minutes

Expected goals
44.5%
15th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.1%
30th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 29 against. Expected: 16.9 and 21.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
15th

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 37 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
96th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.24 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.18 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.4 mph
15th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with OTT · 460 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
OTT took 47.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.5% — 2.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
460 minutes at five-on-five — 16th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Josh Brown41.1%46.5%47.0%
Alex Formenton43.1%45.1%47.0%
Chris Tierney42.0%45.4%49.8%

41.1% together, 46.5% for him apart and 47.0% for Brown apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

41 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 0 of them goals. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 63% from beyond forty.