Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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31

Erik Kallgren

Toronto Maple Leafs Goaltender

Fourteen NHL games and 385 shots at .8883, on a club that rated 29th in goaltending.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2021-22TOR14841433.311385.888
2022-23 so far——————————
Career—14841433.311385.888

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 games, 8-4-1, a .8883 save percentage and a 3.31 goals-against, one shutout on 385 shots. Hundred-and-eighty-third overall in 2015 by Arizona — the seventh round — one season, 14 games.

Fourteen games is barely half the twenty-five this book requires before it will place a goaltender in the league distribution, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 200 pounds, and 25 years old.

Three hundred and eighty-five shots is the entire NHL record. That is a fifth of what Andrei Vasilevskiy faced last season and it will not settle anything.

A .8883 across it, with a shutout in there — which is a fair description of how little a sample that size constrains.

The Mental Game

Toronto rated 29th in the league in goaltending at minus-26.9 goals saved above expectation, and the crease carried four men: Jack Campbell at .9140 across forty-nine games, Petr Mrazek across twenty, Kallgren across fourteen and Joseph Woll across four.

The skaters in front finished 6th in attempt share, 5th in chances and 4th in expected goals against per 60 at even strength. The club’s five-on-five ledger was 182 goals against an expectation of 155.1 — twenty-seven more than the model asked, and that number is the whole of Toronto’s problem.

Eight wins in fourteen appearances came out of it, which says more about the skaters than about him.

The Intangibles

Nothing here measures technique, and 385 shots would not settle it if it did.

What it measures is a 25-year-old with fourteen NHL games, drafted in the seventh round seven years ago.

Jack Campbell has gone to Edmonton and Petr Mrazek to Chicago. Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray have arrived, which leaves Kallgren third on a depth chart he was second on last spring. The record contains nothing that argues either way and there is not enough of it to try.