Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

24

Wayne Simmonds

Toronto Maple Leafs Right Wing

The 2nd-smallest workload of all 393 forwards, and the 10th-most penalties taken.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09LAK8291423-8732021277.113:50
2009-10LAK78162440+2211600212712.614:29
2010-11LAK80141630-27510311712.013:27
2011-12PHI82282149-1114110419714.215:55
2012-13PHI45151732-78460411013.615:38
2013-14PHI82293160-4106150420913.916:46
2014-15PHI75282250-566140618814.916:48
2015-16PHI81322860-7147130522914.017:14
2016-17PHI82312354-18122162422413.818:58
2017-18PHI75242246-1657111517613.618:05
2018-19PHI/NSH79171330-169950215710.815:40
2019-20NJD/BUF6881725-21665011196.714:55
2020-21TOR38729-3453006211.311:59
2021-22TOR7251116-796002796.39:20
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1019263261524-931266102344212112.415:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

72 games, 5 goals and 11 assists at 9:20 a night, minus-7, ninety-six penalty minutes, 79 shots. None of the five came on the power play. Sixty-first overall in 2007 by Los Angeles — the second round — fifteen seasons, 1,019 games, 524 points.

The Finesse Game

Nine minutes and twenty seconds a night is the 2nd-smallest workload of all 393 forwards who played forty games — only Dominic Toninato took less.

Seventy per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 17-foot median — the 97th percentile among forwards and the 4th-shortest median distance in the league.

He goes to the same place he has gone for fifteen years and it produced five goals at 6.3 per cent, the 10th percentile.

7.06 shots per 60 is the 47th percentile, so the volume off that shift is respectable and the conversion is not.

48.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 39th percentile, out of 56.2 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 146th-highest of 652 skaters — a soft chair, and the shares come out below even.

The Physical Game

1.96 penalties drawn per 60 is the 98th percentile among forwards against 2.05 taken at the 97th, and ninety-six penalty minutes came out of a 9:20 shift.

That is the 10th-most penalties taken of all 393 forwards, from the second-smallest workload in the league.

13.22 hits per 60 is the 95th percentile at 6-2 and 184 pounds, and 1,266 penalty minutes across a 1,019-game career.

The Intangibles

10.08 miles per 60 is the 88th percentile, which off nine minutes a night says he is moving the entire time he is out there, against a 22.0 mph top speed at the 23rd percentile and 3.9 bursts per 60 at the 34th.

His shot is 94.7 mph, the 83rd percentile — the velocity is intact and five goals came out of it.

He is 34, with 524 points in 1,019 games across fifteen seasons. The net front, the hitting and the calls he draws are what fifteen years built. Sixteen points, a 6.3 per cent conversion and the tenth-most penalties in the league off the second-smallest shift are the reasons the ice has fallen to nine minutes, and the record offers nothing that reverses that.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    70.3% of his attempts in the slot, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Seventy per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 17-foot median — the 97th percentile among forwards and the 4th-shortest median distance in the league.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.96 penalties drawn per 60 is the 98th percentile among forwards against 2.05 taken at the 97th, and ninety-six penalty minutes came out of a 9:20 shift.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 658 minutes

Expected goals
48.6%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.5%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 28 against. Expected: 25.6 and 27.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
44th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 72 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
43rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.61 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.7 mph
89th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 658 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TOR took 54.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.6% — 6.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 658 minutes at five-on-five — 28th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jason Spezza50.7%44.6%53.2%
TJ Brodie45.8%50.1%55.4%
Morgan Rielly48.0%48.9%53.9%

50.7% together, 44.6% for him apart and 53.2% for Spezza apart. He was worse away from Spezza, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Spezza did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

101 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 57% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.