Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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27

Timothy Liljegren

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

A 98th-percentile chance share and the 96th-percentile sprint count, at 23 on sixteen minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20TOR11011-5200020.010:18
2020-21TOR2000+1200010.015:06
2021-22TOR6151823+1514100796.316:24
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—7451924+1118100826.115:27

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

61 games, 5 goals and 18 assists at 16:24 a night, plus-15, fourteen penalty minutes, 79 shots. One of the five came on the power play. Seventeenth overall in 2017 by Toronto, three seasons, 74 games, 24 points.

The Finesse Game

58.0 per cent of the expected goals is the 98th percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games and 55.0 per cent of the attempts the 88th — the best pair of possession figures on this blue line.

And the same caveat applies as to Rasmus Sandin. Toronto took 54.8 per cent of the chances as a club, and Liljegren started 53.6 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 215th-highest of 652 skaters, on sixteen minutes a night. A third-pair defenceman’s share on a club like this is mostly a description of the club.

1.37 even-strength points per 60 is the 89th percentile, which is genuinely his and is the best number here.

4.74 shots per 60 is the 55th percentile at 6.3 per cent, from a 50-foot median with ten per cent from the slot.

2.58 giveaways per 60 is the 90th percentile — the second-highest on the club behind Jake Muzzin.

The Physical Game

5.22 hits per 60 is the 65th percentile and 3.60 blocks the 30th at 6-1 and 200 pounds.

Fourteen penalty minutes in sixty-one games, and 0.42 penalties taken per 60 at the 24th percentile.

The Intangibles

4.3 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen, at 6-1 and 200 pounds.

Against a 21.5 mph top speed at the 27th percentile and 8.76 miles per 60 at the 85th.

A low top end reached constantly. He gets above twenty miles an hour the 17th-most often of the 202 and cannot get much past it, which describes short bursts rather than a fast skater and is a useful thing to know about a third pair.

His shot is 95.9 mph, the 63rd percentile.

He is 23, seventeenth overall in 2017, with twenty-four points in seventy-four games. The point rate, the sprint count and a first real season at 23 are the case. The giveaway rate, the top speed and possession numbers borrowed from the club around him are the three things to check again in a year.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    58.0% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 53.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.1, 93rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “4.3 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 96th percentile among defencemen, at 6-1 and 200 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 914 minutes

Expected goals
58%
96th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55%
88th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 42 against. Expected: 45.8 and 33.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
96th

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 61 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
46th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.16 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.9 mph
75th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 914 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TOR took 54.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.0% — 3.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 914 minutes at five-on-five — 52nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Michael Bunting64.9%54.7%58.4%
John Tavares60.8%56.9%52.0%
Auston Matthews68.9%52.7%60.3%

64.9% together, 54.7% for him apart and 58.4% for Bunting apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

108 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.