Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

8

Jake Muzzin

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

The 16th-most giveaways of 202 defencemen and the 95th-percentile ground covered, in forty-seven games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11LAK11011-2000080.013:43
2012-13LAK457916+1635301779.117:54
2013-14LAK7651924+8581001752.919:02
2014-15LAK76103141-4224031735.822:42
2015-16LAK8283240+7641012033.923:04
2016-17LAK8291928-21464011844.922:18
2017-18LAK7483442+10404011545.221:39
2018-19LAK/TOR8092837+21471011416.421:21
2019-20TOR5361723+1240001996.121:36
2020-21TOR5342327+21291101033.921:35
2021-22TOR4731114-616000754.020:44
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—67969224293+62397191913925.021:14

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

47 games, 3 goals and 11 assists at 20:44 a night, minus-6, sixteen penalty minutes, 75 shots. Hundred-and-forty-first overall in 2007 by Pittsburgh — the fifth round — eleven seasons, 679 games, 293 points.

The Finesse Game

2.71 giveaways per 60 is the 16th-most of all 202 defencemen who played forty games, against 0.74 takeaways at the 36th percentile.

Nearly four lost for every one won. That is the worst ratio on this blue line and one of the worst in the league at the position.

52.3 per cent of the expected goals is the 72nd percentile and 52.6 per cent of the attempts the 75th, out of 48.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 261st-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — the third-hardest chair on a club that gave its top line 62 per cent.

4.62 shots per 60 is the 53rd percentile at 4.0 per cent, from a 47-foot median with thirteen per cent of his attempts from the slot.

0.93 even-strength points per 60 is the 48th percentile.

The Physical Game

6.47 hits per 60 is the 78th percentile among defencemen, at 6-3 and 227 pounds on a 20:44 shift.

Sixteen penalty minutes in forty-seven games and 0.49 penalties taken per 60 at the 32nd percentile — 397 across a 679-game career, so the discipline is recent rather than lifelong.

3.70 blocks per 60 is the 35th percentile.

The Intangibles

2:37 a night short-handed is the 84th percentile among defencemen, on a club that finished 4th in the league on the kill.

9.01 miles per 60 is the 95th percentile and a 22.8 mph top speed the 91st, against 0.7 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 20th.

A high top end, a great deal of ground covered, and almost never at speed. That is a defenceman skating constantly and rarely opening up, which at 33 and twenty minutes a night is a sensible way to spend it.

He is 33, with 293 points in 679 games across eleven seasons. The hits, the kill, the chair and a possession share in the top quarter are four things a contender pays for. Forty-seven games is the fewest he has played in a full season since 2012-13, and the giveaway ledger is the one column the record will not forgive.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6.47 hits per 60 is the 78th percentile among defencemen, at 6-3 and 227 pounds on a 20:44 shift.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:37 a night short-handed is the 84th percentile among defencemen, on a club that finished 4th in the league on the kill.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 824 minutes

Expected goals
52.3%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.6%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 43 against. Expected: 35.9 and 32.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 47 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
94th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.26 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.11 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.6 mph
66th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 824 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TOR took 54.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.3% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 824 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Justin Holl51.8%53.0%54.3%
Auston Matthews60.3%48.2%62.9%
John Tavares50.5%53.1%54.9%

51.8% together, 53.0% for him apart and 54.3% for Holl apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

101 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 62% from beyond forty.