Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

4

Nick Leddy

St. Louis Blues Defense

Nine hundred and twenty-nine games, seventy goals, and forty-four shots from the point that produced none.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11CHI46437-340003710.814:19
2011-12CHI8233437-1210000943.222:05
2012-13CHI4861218+1510202659.217:25
2013-14CHI8272431+10104011235.716:22
2014-15NYI78102737+18141011208.320:22
2015-16NYI8153540-9253011214.122:37
2016-17NYI81113546-3123011378.022:43
2017-18NYI80103242-42204011536.522:25
2018-19NYI82422260180001163.521:33
2019-20NYI6031821-114100724.221:07
2020-21NYI5622931-38101792.521:35
2021-22DET/STL7532124-3022000714.221:25
2022-23STL7822123+420001792.521:07
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—92970313383-56187190912675.520:40

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 21 assists in 78 games — 23 points — at 21:07 a night. Plus-4, 79 shots at 2.5 per cent, 20 penalty minutes, no power-play points.

A plus-4 on a club that finished twenty-third is the only positive figure among St. Louis’s four most-used defencemen.

45.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,469 minutes, the 19th percentile, with his ice at 65-68 against an expectation of 54.23-64.31 — eleven goals better than the chances at the good end and four worse at the other.

He started 39.5 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 12th percentile: 306 attacking draws against 468 defensive ones. He and Colton Parayko took the defensive half of this club’s blue line between them, and 1,469 minutes of it is the twenty-second-largest workload in the edition.

The Finesse Game

79 shots at a median of 46 feet, with 55 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 4 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty feet: 44 shots on goal and no goals. From twenty to forty: 29 shots and two goals, 6.90 per cent, below the league rate for defencemen of 8.83. Inside twenty: five shots and none.

Seventy-eight shots on goal and two goals. A 2.5 per cent shooting percentage against a career 5.5 across 929 games.

118 tracked attempts, 78 of them wrist shots and only 23 slap — a 19.5 per cent share, low for a defenceman. 87.9 mph at the 29th percentile, which is a genuinely soft shot for the position and is the reason the point shot has never been part of the file.

The 21 assists are the offensive contribution and they come from the first pass. He moves the puck out under pressure and does not carry it.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 205 pounds. Top speed 22.1 mph at the 41st percentile, 1.0 bursts above twenty a game at the 56th, 2.79 miles a game at the 67th.

An ordinary tracking line at thirty-two, from a defenceman whose reputation was built on skating. The feet are still adequate and are no longer the thing they were.

20 penalty minutes in 78 games and 187 in 929 career games — the second-lowest rate of any defenceman in this book with eight hundred games, behind only Jared Spurgeon, and it is the truest single description of the way he plays: he does not engage and is rarely beaten badly enough to have to.

He defends with position and stick, and at 205 pounds against a heavy cycle he gives up ground rather than contesting it.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2009, thirteen seasons, 929 games, 383 points across Chicago, the Islanders, Detroit and St. Louis, and two Stanley Cups in Chicago.

70 goals and 313 assists. The peak is seven seasons on Long Island averaging 35 points, and the last four have produced 21, 31, 24 and 23.

He is thirty-two, playing twenty-one minutes a night with the hardest starts on a rebuilding club. That is a real job and it is not one a club gives to a player it thinks is finished.

A minus-56 for a career on four clubs, three of which were bad for most of his time on them.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    40% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 9th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He moves the puck out under pressure and does not carry it.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends with position and stick, and at 205 pounds against a heavy cycle he gives up ground rather than contesting it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,469 minutes

Expected goals
45.7%
25th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.7%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 65 for, 68 against. Expected: 54.2 and 64.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
25th

The report ranks him 28 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 78 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
70th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.03 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.9 mph
30th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1469 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
STL took 45.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.7% — 0.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,469 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Parayko44.9%47.4%45.5%
Jordan Kyrou48.4%44.7%42.6%
Brayden Schenn43.9%46.5%43.8%

44.9% together, 47.4% for him apart and 45.5% for Parayko apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

117 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 59% from beyond forty.