Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

19

Tyler Pitlick

New York Rangers Center

Nine seasons, seven organisations, and 1.75 miles a game at the 5th percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14EDM10101-20000911.18:58
2014-15EDM17202-340011811.112:27
2016-17EDM318311060015414.89:55
2017-18DAL80141327+93400212910.813:41
2018-19DAL478412-261017510.713:23
2019-20PHI6381220+11120017610.512:03
2020-21ARI386511-1160105610.716:22
2021-22CGY/MTL39145-116000362.810:56
2022-23STL617916-1140005413.010:05
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—386555010509811650710.812:19

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 9 assists in 61 games — 16 points — for St Louis, at 10:05 a night. Minus-1, 54 shots at 13.0 per cent, 14 penalty minutes.

45 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 20th percentile, with his ice at 23-23 against an expectation of 19.23-23.5 across 598 minutes.

He started 44.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 25th percentile.

Nine seasons, 386 games, 105 points, seven organisations.

The Finesse Game

54 shots at a median of 26 feet, and seven goals.

Inside twenty: 19 shots on goal and 4 goals, 21.05 per cent. From twenty to forty: 24 shots and 3 goals, 12.50 per cent. Beyond forty: nine shots and none.

Above the league rate from both bands on a sample of forty-three shots on goal, which is a way of saying the season contains no information about his finishing.

39 wrist shots and 13 tip-ins out of 79 tracked attempts. 83.6 mph at the 7th percentile.

50 career assists against 55 goals in 386 games. There is nothing here in either direction and there never has been.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 199, with fourteen penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.7 mph, the 74th percentile; 1.7 bursts a game, the 79th; 1.75 miles a game, the 5th percentile.

Good speed used often, on almost no ground covered — which is ten minutes a night in short shifts and is the tracking signature of a thirteenth forward.

He forechecks hard, finishes checks, and does not take penalties for it.

What the 20th-percentile chance share says is that the shifts go the wrong way, and nine seasons of the same reading across seven clubs is a consistent enough record to trust.

The Intangibles

Thirty-first overall in 2010 to Edmonton, and then Dallas, Philadelphia, Arizona, Calgary, Montreal, St Louis and here.

105 points in 386 games at thirty-one, on a career that has never had a season above 27 points.

He is a fourth-line winger who kills penalties and can be signed for very little, which is exactly what seven organisations have concluded in turn.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks hard, finishes checks, and does not take penalties for it.”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “What the 20th-percentile chance share says is that the shifts go the wrong way, and nine seasons of the same reading across seven clubs is a consistent enough record to trust.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 598 minutes

Expected goals
45%
21st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.7%
16th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 23 against. Expected: 19.2 and 23.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
21st

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 61 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.69 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.75 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.6 mph
30th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with STL · 598 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
STL took 45.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.0% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 598 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexey Toropchenko48.2%39.6%42.1%
Nathan Walker43.6%46.2%33.5%
Colton Parayko41.3%46.7%45.6%

48.2% together, 39.6% for him apart and 42.1% for Toropchenko apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

77 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.