Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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75

Tyler Tucker

St. Louis Blues Defense

A seventh-round pick, twenty-six games, and thirty-one penalty minutes in them.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23STL26134-931000214.814:39
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—26134-931000214.814:39

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 3 assists in 26 games — 4 points — at 14:39 a night. Minus-9, 21 shots at 4.8 per cent, 31 penalty minutes.

It was his first NHL season.

48.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 368 minutes, the 34th percentile — the second-best of any St. Louis defenceman — with his ice at 12-20 against an expectation of 12.88-13.51.

He started 57.8 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 84th percentile, which is the soft third-pair introduction a twenty-two-year-old should get.

The minus-9 in 368 minutes is worse than the chances predicted by seven goals, which on this club is the exception rather than the rule.

The Finesse Game

21 shots at a median of 50 feet, with 78 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty.

Beyond forty feet: 18 shots on goal and one goal. From twenty to forty: three shots and none. Inside twenty: no shots on goal at all.

He shoots from the point or not at all, which is the ordinary young-defenceman distribution and nothing to read into on twenty-one shots.

27 tracked attempts, seven of them slap shots — a 25.9 per cent share. 93.3 mph at the 66th percentile, which is a real shot on a very small number of chances to use it.

The first pass is the part of the game that will decide whether he holds a job. It is safe and it is slow, and both of those are correctable at twenty-two.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 204 pounds, with 31 penalty minutes in 26 games — the highest rate on this roster and one of the highest in the book.

Top speed 21.0 mph at the 4th percentile, 0.3 bursts above twenty a game at the 10th, 2.05 miles a game at the 18th. He is one of the slowest skaters in this edition and that is the standing problem with the file.

He is nasty and punishing at the net front, which is why a seventh-round pick reached the NHL at all and is the only reason the speed has not already ended it.

He fights, takes liberties after the whistle, and plays a fourteen-minute game entirely inside contact.

The Intangibles

Two hundredth overall in 2018, the seventh round, one season, 26 games, 4 points.

A seventh-round defenceman who plays an NHL game is already an outlier; one who plays twenty-six of them at fourteen minutes a night is a rarer thing again.

He is twenty-three, on a club that has begun a rebuild and can afford to find out. The 34th-percentile chance share out of soft starts is a reasonable beginning and the 4th percentile of top speed is the ceiling on it.

What this file needs is a full season, and this is the only club that was going to give him one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He is nasty and punishing at the net front, which is why a seventh-round pick reached the NHL at all and is the only reason the speed has not already ended it.”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He fights, takes liberties after the whistle, and plays a fourteen-minute game entirely inside contact.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 368 minutes

Expected goals
48.8%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 12 for, 20 against. Expected: 12.9 and 13.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
41st

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 26 games

Top speed
21.0 mph
28th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.27 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.05 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.3 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 368 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
STL took 45.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.8% — 3.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
368 minutes at five-on-five — 9th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Calle Rosen51.6%46.7%48.9%
Brayden Schenn49.3%48.6%43.4%
Alexey Toropchenko53.6%47.0%43.9%

51.6% together, 46.7% for him apart and 48.9% for Rosen apart. He was worse away from Rosen, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Rosen did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

27 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 45 feet. 0% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 89% from beyond forty.