Pittsburgh Penguins

What the Quant Says

255 goals, 18th in the league, on the 3rd-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.852 expected goals per 60. Only Edmonton and Carolina generated more per minute of even hockey than Pittsburgh did.

At five-on-five it took 51.2 per cent of the shot attempts, 12th, and 51.1 per cent of the expected goals, 14th — and it did that from the ninth-lowest offensive-zone start share in the league, 47.4 per cent.

It scored 179 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 182.7 — a shortfall of 3.7, 21st in the league. Close to the number, and the number was a good one.

Sidney Crosby had 42 goals and 94 points in his nineteenth season, Bryan Rust 28 goals in 62 games, Evgeni Malkin 27 and 67 points, Michael Bunting 19 and 55, and Drew O'Connor 16 as an undrafted winger.

Jake Guentzel scored 30 goals and 77 points across Pittsburgh and Carolina and is now in Tampa, and Reilly Smith had 40 points and is now in New York.

What the Scout Says

A 37-year-old centre with 42 goals, and a shot chart that has not moved in nineteen years.

Sidney Crosby is 5-11 and 200 and took 388 attempts at a median of 22 feet, 271 of them on goal, with 43 per cent from inside twenty feet. He converted 15.1 per cent against a career 14.54 across 4,072 shots. He wins pucks below the goal line at 37, protects them with his back to pressure the way he did at 19, and the passing out of that position is still the best part of him.

Bryan Rust took 282 attempts at a median of 21 feet with 49 per cent from inside twenty and scored 28 goals in 62 games at 14.3 per cent. Evgeni Malkin is 6-5 and 213 and took 273 attempts at a 28-foot median, converting 13.6 per cent.

Michael Bunting took 243 attempts at a 23-foot median with 42 per cent from inside twenty and has 254 penalty minutes in 268 career games. Drew O'Connor is undrafted, 6-4, and put 52 per cent of his attempts inside twenty feet — the closest chart of any regular forward on the club. Noel Acciari's median attempt was 19 feet.

What the Quant Says

Pittsburgh allowed 2.724 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 26th in the league, and conceded 251 goals, 15th. Third at making chances and twenty-sixth at giving them up.

At five-on-five it conceded 172 goals against an expectation of 174.8 — marginally better than the shots called for. The chances were the problem, not the conversion of them.

Erik Karlsson played all 82 at 24:16 with 11 goals and 45 assists, Kris Letang all 82 at 24:41 with 51 points, and Marcus Pettersson all 82 at 22:40 on a plus-28. Those three took 1,606, 1,590 and 1,584 minutes of five-on-five ice — 4th, 6th and 7th in the edition. No other club has three men in the top ten.

Karlsson's ice went 76-69 against an expectation of 82.68-70.47. Pettersson's went 87-67 against 75.09-65.50, which is twelve goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and the best figure on the club. Letang's chance share was 49.7 per cent, the only one of the three below half.

Ryan Graves played 70 games at 18:23 and his ice went 37-37 against 50.15-52.55 — thirteen goals of finishing below the chances, the worst on the club, and fifteen and a half goals of goaltending above them, the best. Matt Grzelcyk arrives from Boston with 63 games at 17:36.

What the Scout Says

Three defencemen in the top ten of the league for five-on-five ice, and the twenty-sixth-best chance suppression behind them.

Erik Karlsson is 6-0 and 185, 34, and took 300 attempts at a median of 52 feet with 72 per cent of them from beyond forty. His 628 career assists are the most of any defenceman in this edition. He walks the line and shoots through traffic rather than around it. He and Letang are one of only two pairs of teammates in this edition with forty assists each from the blue line, with Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek in Vancouver.

Kris Letang is 6-0 and 199, 37, and played 24:41 a night with 576 career assists and 753 penalty minutes. Marcus Pettersson is 6-5 and 174 — the lightest skater in this edition at 6-3 or taller, by seventeen pounds — and finished plus-28 with 4 goals and a career shooting rate of 2.73 per cent across 513 shots. He defends with reach and stick and almost never with his body.

Ryan Graves is 6-5 and 225 and took 84 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet. Matt Grzelcyk is 5-10 and 180 and has a career plus-137 in 445 games. Ryan Shea played 31 games at 27 and they are his entire NHL career.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 2.8 goals better than the chances it faced, 13th in the league. On a club that finished twenty-sixth at chance suppression, this is the one department that did not cost anything.

Tristan Jarry went 19-25-5 with a .9028 and a 2.91 in 51 games, facing 1,369 shots. His 6 shutouts are tied for the most in this edition with Sergei Bobrovsky, Charlie Lindgren and Connor Ingram. He is 29, a second-round pick, and his career line is a .9116 across 257 games.

Alex Nedeljkovic went 18-7-7 with a .9018 and a 2.97 in 38 games. A point of save percentage separates the two men. Jarry won 19 of his 51 games and Nedeljkovic 18 of his 38. Of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games, Jarry ranked 25th by save percentage and Nedeljkovic 23rd — the middle of the league, twice.

What the Scout Says

Two goaltenders a point of save percentage apart, and 2.8 goals of profit between them.

Tristan Jarry is 6-4 and 201 and plays a deep, patient game built on size in the paint rather than movement across it. Six shutouts in 51 games — tied for the most in this edition — and a 19-25-5 record to go with them. His career .9116 across 257 games is the truer number, and he has played at least thirty games in each of the last five seasons.

Alex Nedeljkovic is 6-0 and 205 and leaves the crease to move the puck more readily than his partner does. He is 28, a second-round pick, and his 18-7-7 in 38 games came with an .9018 — one point below the man who went 19-25-5. His career .9056 across 141 games sits between the two.

Pittsburgh gave up the twenty-sixth-most dangerous even-strength ice in the league and its crease came out ahead of the chances anyway. That is the quiet good news in a season that did not have much of it.

What the Quant Says

14th in the league at 7.444 expected goals per 60, over 5:27 a night — the sixth-most power-play time of any club. Plenty of ice, an ordinary rate on it.

Sidney Crosby scored 10 power-play goals, Michael Bunting 7, Evgeni Malkin 6, Lars Eller 4, Rickard Rakell 4, Emil Bemstrom 4, Bryan Rust 3, Erik Karlsson 2 and Anthony Beauvillier 2.

Evgeni Malkin has 179 career power-play goals and Sidney Crosby 172 — third and fourth in this edition, and 351 between two men who have played their whole careers in the same building.

Kris Letang played 24:41 a night and scored none, after 52 in his career. Erik Karlsson scored 2 and has 42 in 1,002 games. The two most decorated offensive defencemen in the edition ran this unit and produced two power-play goals between them.

What the Scout Says

The sixth-most power-play time in the league, a fourteenth-place rate on it, and two of the four most prolific power-play scorers in the edition standing on it.

Evgeni Malkin has 179 career power-play goals in 1,145 games and Sidney Crosby 172 in 1,272 — third and fourth in this edition behind Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos. Crosby scored 10 last season and Malkin 6.

Michael Bunting scored 7, the second-most on the club, and has 19 in 268 career games. Lars Eller, Rickard Rakell and Emil Bemstrom scored 4 apiece. Rakell has 48 career power-play goals in 721 games and scored 33 in a season once.

Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson combined for 2 power-play goals in 164 games, which is the strangest number in this chapter. Between them they have 94 in their careers and 1,204 career assists, and a unit with the sixth-most ice in the league finished fourteenth.

What the Quant Says

5th in the league at 6.544 expected goals against per 60, over 4:56 a night, the fifteenth- fewest shorthanded minutes in hockey. A genuinely good kill on ordinary volume, and the one rate on this club that finished near the top.

Bryan Rust, Drew O'Connor and Lars Eller each scored shorthanded, and Blake Lizotte scored two more in Los Angeles before he arrived.

Kevin Hayes has 10 career shorthanded goals, Lars Eller 9, Bryan Rust 6, Matt Nieto 6, Kris Letang 5 and Blake Lizotte 5. That is forty-one between six men, on a roster that keeps collecting them.

Noel Acciari is undrafted and took 41.4 per cent of the chances at five-on-five, the 7th percentile and the lowest figure on the club. That is what the hardest defensive assignment in Pittsburgh looks like on paper.

What the Scout Says

Fifth in the league by rate, on the fifteenth-fewest shorthanded minutes.

Kevin Hayes is 6-3 and 217 and has 10 career shorthanded goals in 713 games, the most on the club. Lars Eller has 9 in 1,036 games and 599 penalty minutes, and first played in the league in 2009.

Bryan Rust and Matt Nieto each have 6 career shorthanded goals. Blake Lizotte is 5-9 and 176 and has 5 in 320 games, with two of them scored last season in Los Angeles. Kris Letang has 5 and kills at 37.

Noel Acciari is undrafted, 5-11 and 204, and took the lowest chance share on the club at 41.4 per cent across 580 minutes. Nine seasons of that work have left him with 63 goals and a career minus-17, and the seventh percentile is what the job costs a man.

A fifth-ranked kill is real, and it is the only rate on this club that beat the fourteenth place its power play managed.