Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

10

Jansen Harkins

Anaheim Ducks Center

No goals on thirty-seven shots, in a forty-five-game season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20WPG29257-25000296.910:37
2020-21WPG26112-24000166.38:24
2021-22WPG777613-8150006710.49:29
2022-23WPG22325+4120001816.710:49
2023-24PIT45044-421000370.08:12
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—199131831-12570001677.89:22

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

No goals and 4 assists in 45 games for Pittsburgh — 4 points at 8:12 a night, minus-4, on 37 shots, with 21 penalty minutes.

46.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 361 minutes, the 26th percentile. His ice went 6-10 against an expectation of 11.95-14.05 — six goals conceded above expectation in a fourth-line role.

The Finesse Game

37 attempts at a median of 28 feet, with 33 per cent from inside 20 and 30 per cent from beyond 40, and not one of them went in. Thirteen goals in 199 career games says the season was not a fluke so much as an extreme.

4 assists. He does not create and he is not asked to — the job is to get the puck out of his own end and change.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 197. He forechecks without force and he does not win pucks on the wall against a defenceman.

21 penalty minutes in 45 games. He does not agitate and does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

Forty-seventh overall in 2015 by Winnipeg, and 199 NHL games across five seasons for three clubs, mostly as a thirteenth forward.

He is 27 and was signed here in the summer. A goalless season on a fourth line is exactly the sort of player a thirtieth-place club acquires, and the honest read is that he is roster depth rather than a plan.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    16% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He forechecks without force and he does not win pucks on the wall against a defenceman.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks without force and he does not win pucks on the wall against a defenceman.”

  • agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He does not agitate and does not retaliate.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not agitate and does not retaliate.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create and he is not asked to** — the job is to get the puck out of his own end and change.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 361 minutes

Expected goals
46%
27th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.5%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 6 for, 10 against. Expected: 11.9 and 14.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
27th

The numbers rank him 26 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 50 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 45 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
59th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.82 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.44 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.0 mph
34th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with PIT · 361 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
PIT took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.0% — 5.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 361 minutes at five-on-five — 11th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jeff Carter46.4%45.2%39.5%
Noel Acciari45.9%46.0%39.5%
Ryan Graves54.0%42.3%48.4%

46.4% together, 45.2% for him apart and 39.5% for Carter apart. Carter was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Carter than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

43 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 30% from beyond forty.