Pittsburgh Penguins

What the Quant Says

The third-highest-scoring team in the league, and the oldest engine driving it. Pittsburgh scored 293 goals and finished 17.9 above expectation, fourth, while ranking 4th in even-strength expected goals per 60 — a genuinely good attack flattered on top of that.

Sidney Crosby is 39 and put up 74 points; Evgeni Malkin is 40 and put up 61 in 56 games. Bryan Rust scored 29 at 34, Rickard Rakell 24 in 60 games taking 58 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. The 2 encouraging young pages are Ben Kindel — 19 years old, 35 points, 82nd percentile — and Tommy Novak at the 91st. Justin Brazeau takes 69 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, the second-highest share in this edition.

The structural fact underneath all of it: 51 per cent of this club's skater points came from men aged 33 and up — the highest share in the league, and nobody else clears 45.

What the Scout Says

The best-organised attack in the league from the point of view of where the shots come from, and it starts with 2 men who never had to be told. Sidney Crosby stopped shooting from the outside years ago; Rickard Rakell has worked out that the outside is a waste of his time and gets to the paint by timing rather than force, which is also why he takes a beating. Justin Brazeau is 6-6 and does his entire scoring in the crease, and skates poorly enough that it holds him to 12 minutes. Elmer Soderblom is 6-8 and screens goaltenders simply by existing.

The creation comes from the 2 old centres. Malkin remains one of the most dangerous puck-carriers alive when he is upright. Bryan Rust is the quick one who gets to the ice before the defenceman does. And there is genuine youth arriving underneath: Ben Kindel arrives where the puck is about to be and releases before the check does; Tommy Novak took a long time to arrive and is producing at a strong rate in 14 minutes. The riskier bets are the pure shooters — Egor Chinakhov beats goaltenders clean from a long way out with no forechecking game at all, Andrei Kuzmenko needs the ice manufactured for him, and Nick Robertson cannot win a physical exchange anywhere on the sheet.

What the Quant Says

17th in even-strength expected goals against, and a blue line as old as the forward group. Kris Letang is 39 and played 1,334 5-on-5 minutes, the most on the club, in his twentieth season — with the goals 56-58 in his favour. Erik Karlsson is 36 and put up 66 points in 23:36 a night. Both came out at the 66th percentile.

The best underlying numbers belong to men who arrived: Samuel Girard, 5-10 and 170 pounds, posted the 94th percentile with the goals 55-37 in his favour, and Ilya Solovyov the 100th percentile in 374 minutes. Ryan Graves played 22 games. Parker Wotherspoon, Ryan Shea and Connor Clifton have all gone. Continuity is 66.3 per cent, 28th in the league — this group is turning over fast, and the 2 men it cannot replace are 36 and 39.

What the Scout Says

2 of the great offensive defencemen of the era, and neither of them defends. Erik Karlsson's passing is still a top-3 asset at the position and he does not clear a crease, does not win a net-front battle, and defends by having the puck instead — which works until the puck is not his. Kris Letang's skating has held up better than anyone had a right to expect and he is still taking the hard minutes at an age when nobody does.

The third mover is Samuel Girard, who escapes pressure by turning through it and puts a quick first pass out, and who is moved wherever a heavy winger decides. That is 3 defencemen who all solve the same problem the same way and none who solve the other one. The counterweight is thin: Ryan Graves is 6 foot 5 and cannot recover when beaten, which forwards have known for several years; Trevor van Riemsdyk has played 750 games on positioning alone; Kaedan Korczak takes 15 honest minutes and asks for nothing, which is precisely what this roster is short of. Declan Carlile blocks shots and competes in front of his own net. Pittsburgh needs several more of the last 2 kinds.

What the Quant Says

Unsettled, and neutral. Pittsburgh's goaltending came out 2.8 goals worse than the chances faced, nineteenth — neither the reason for the record nor an excuse.

Arturs Silovs took 39 games, Stuart Skinner 27 before leaving for Winnipeg, Tristan Jarry 14 before leaving for Edmonton, Sergei Murashov 5. 4 goaltenders in 1 season, 2 of them gone, and no established starter. On a club whose scoring is running 17 goals above expectation and whose core is in its late thirties, this is the position with the least clarity and the least margin.

What the Scout Says

The position that decides games, and the one this roster has not solved. Arturs Silovs is fine when he is square and arrives late when the play moves laterally, and his rebound control is the weakest part of him — the worst weakness to carry behind a club that concedes second chances. He carried a team through a playoff round as an emergency starter 2 seasons ago, which is where the reputation comes from, and he has not been that good since.

Sergei Murashov is calm, does not fight pucks, and manages his depth with a discipline unusual at his age. 5 games is nothing and it would be dishonest to build an assessment on it, but a shutout inside a 5-game look is the kind of thing that gets a young goaltender remembered. On a club whose 4 best players are all past 35, the one position it has not addressed is the one that ends seasons.

What the Quant Says

14th at 7.50 expected goals per 60, on 4:50 a night, 15th. Median in both, which for a roster containing Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson and Letang is a mild disappointment.

Crosby led it with 10 power-play goals, Rust 8, Rakell 7, Malkin 4, Kindel 4. The unit is not the problem and it is not the solution; on a club finishing this far above expectation at even strength, the power play is the one phase where the numbers are honest.

What the Scout Says

Still, on personnel, one of the more frightening units in the league. Sidney Crosby works below the goal line where nobody has ever taken the puck off him. Erik Karlsson runs the point with the passing of a 3-time Norris winner. Evgeni Malkin is a second option most clubs would build a first unit around. Rickard Rakell and Andrei Kuzmenko are both finishers who need the ice manufactured, which is exactly what a man advantage does for a living.

The net front is better supplied than it has been in years. Justin Brazeau at 6-6 and Elmer Soderblom at 6-8 are 2 of the largest screens in hockey, and a checking series takes away open ice without taking away the front of the net. Egor Chinakhov's release is a genuine 1-shot threat from distance. What the unit lacks is legs — 4 of its most important players are into their late thirties, and an aggressive kill that pressures the entry is the thing most likely to make it look old.

What the Quant Says

16th at 6.71 expected goals against per 60, over 4:48 a game, 18th. League median in rate and workload alike.

Malkin's 61 penalty minutes and Crosby's 44 are the sort of totals that come from playing hard at 40 and 39 rather than from indiscipline. Connor Dewar and Blake Lizotte take the hard shorthanded minutes. This is a competent kill and the least interesting thing about a club whose real question is what happens when 51 per cent of its scoring reaches the end at once.

What the Scout Says

The best-constructed part of the roster, and the part that cost the least to build. Blake Lizotte's speed is the asset that makes everything else about him possible; Connor Dewar forechecks, kills and takes defensive-zone draws, which is the entire job; Bryan Rust does not avoid traffic and can score shorthanded. Sidney Crosby has never been a passive player and his 44 penalty minutes say he is still not one.

The blue line is where it gets difficult. Trevor van Riemsdyk and Kaedan Korczak both take honest minutes and neither is a physical deterrent; Declan Carlile blocks shots; Ryan Graves has the size and cannot recover. Neither Karlsson nor Girard can be asked to hold the front of a net, and both are among the club's most important players — which means the kill has to be built without 2 of its 6 best defencemen. The club's own discipline is reasonable, though Malkin's 61 penalty minutes are the kind a large, frustrated 40-year-old accumulates, and this roster cannot afford much time a man down.