Pittsburgh Penguins

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 22 reports in the 2025-26 edition.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2024-25 · 82 games · 260 for, 226 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 50.9% 10th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 49.0% 21st of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.50 9th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.71 6th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -7.3 22nd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -26.0 31st of 32

Pittsburgh Penguins got 26.0 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 26 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 32.7; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 41.7%; of skater points
From under 26: 6.5%; of skater points
Homegrown: 42.2%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 66.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Sidney Crosby scored 91 points at 37 while the ice he was on managed 29 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 56 — and the goaltending finished 26 goals worse than the shots it faced, 31st in the league.

Who this names 12 of 22 on the roster · 62% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Connor Dewar, Ryan Graves, Kevin Hayes, Danton Heinen, Tristan Jarry, Owen Pickering, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Ryan Shea, Philip Tomasino.

What the Quant Says

80 points, 34-36-12, and a third consecutive spring outside the playoffs.

The club took 50.9 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 10th in the league, and 49.0 per cent of the expected goals, 21st. It scored 152 goals in that state against an expectation of 159.3 and conceded 192 against 166. The goaltending was 26 goals worse than the chances faced, 31st in the league.

What makes this club unlike any other in the edition is the age of the part that still works. Sidney Crosby is 38 and had 91 points — his twentieth consecutive season at a point a game, which is a record. Evgeni Malkin is 39 and had 50. Kris Letang is 38 and played 23:32 a night. Erik Karlsson is 35 and played more five-on-five minutes than anybody on the roster. Four men with 4,810 games and eleven Stanley Cup rings between them, on a hockey team that finished 25th.

And the ice they played on could not score. Crosby's line was twenty-seven goals under its expectation and Rakell's twenty-three, on a club that as a whole was seven under. That is not a repeatable thing and it is not a reason to expect next season to be different, because the reason the club lost was 293 goals against.

The organisation finally moved. Mike Sullivan left for the Rangers after ten seasons and Dan Muse was hired. Marcus Pettersson and Drew O'Connor went to Vancouver at the deadline, Michael Bunting to Nashville for Tommy Novak, Matt Grzelcyk to Chicago and Cody Glass to New Jersey, and Justin Brazeau, Connor Clifton, Mathew Dumba, Parker Wotherspoon and Arturs Silovs were added in the summer.

It is a rebuild that has not been called one, around a captain who has given no sign of wanting to be anywhere else.

What the Scout Says

The oldest good hockey players in the league, and a supporting cast assembled out of other clubs' fourth lines.

Sidney Crosby is 5-11 and 200 and thick through the legs, and the wall game is still the best in hockey. He holds the puck below the goal line with a defenceman on his back until a lane appears, and 58 assists at 37 is what that produces. He takes 48 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet and 31 penalty minutes in 80 games says he answers almost none of what is done to him.

Evgeni Malkin is 6-5 and has 1,202 penalty minutes in 1,213 games and answers all of it. Kris Letang took 52 penalty minutes at 37 and has never let anything go either.

Erik Karlsson is 6-0 and 185 and still the best skater at the position in this book at 35. He does not clear a crease and he never has, and on a club that conceded 293 goals that has stopped being a footnote.

Underneath, the club is small and honest. Blake Lizotte is 5-9 and 176 and hits everybody. Noel Acciari is 5-11 and takes 54 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet. The summer additions — Brazeau at 6-6, Clifton, Dumba — are the first weight the roster has bought in three years.

Who this names 8 of 12 forwards · 71% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Noel Acciari, Connor Dewar, Danton Heinen, Blake Lizotte.

What the Quant Says

243 goals, 19th in the league, and 13th at creating chances at even strength at 2.534 expected goals per 60. The attack is not the problem and at these ages that is worth saying plainly.

Sidney Crosby had 91 points at 37 with 10 game-winning goals, Rickard Rakell 35 goals and a career-high 70 points at 32, Bryan Rust 31 goals in 71 games at 33, Erik Karlsson 53 points and Evgeni Malkin 50 at 38.

Then the distribution, which is the strangest thing in this edition. Crosby's ice scored 29 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 56.21. Rakell's scored 30 against 53.03. Rust's 33 against 44.56. The club as a whole finished only 7.3 goals under its expectation, which means every other line on the roster finished comfortably above its own. The best line on the team could not score at even strength for a season and the fourth line could.

What the Scout Says

Two of the great offensive players of the century, at 38 and 39, and a shot profile that says neither has moved outward.

Sidney Crosby takes 48 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and Evgeni Malkin 48. At those ages that is the whole story: they are still playing in the middle of the ice, still taking the punishment that comes with it, and still producing at a rate almost nobody their age has.

Bryan Rust takes 52 per cent from inside 20, the highest share on the club, and scored 31 goals in 71 games at 33 by arriving at the net first off the rush. Rickard Rakell takes 49 per cent and converted at 17.2 per cent for a career-high 70 points.

What is missing is anybody to carry it. Philip Tomasino has speed and 8 penalty minutes in 61 games, Tommy Novak has the best chance share on the club and will not win a wall battle, and Kevin Hayes is 6-3 and 217 and took 8 penalty minutes in 64 games. Justin Brazeau at 6-6 and 232 is the only forward added in the summer who changes anything physically.

Who this names 8 of 8 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

293 goals against, 30th in the league, and 25th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.650 per 60. Both halves of that are bad and the second half is the one the club can coach.

At five-on-five the club conceded 192 goals against an expectation of 166. Twenty-six of those are in the crease and the rest are structural.

Erik Karlsson is 6-0 and 185 pounds and played 1,517 five-on-five minutes, more than anybody on the roster, at 35. His ice went 44-71. Kris Letang played 23:32 a night at 37 and came out level with his chances against, which on this club was the best defensive season anybody had.

Below them it is size without speed. Ryan Graves takes 79 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet and his ice conceded six goals above expectation, and Ryan Shea five. Connor Clifton, Mathew Dumba and Parker Wotherspoon were all signed in the summer, which is three new third-pairing defencemen in one off-season.

What the Scout Says

A blue line built out of two men who have been here twenty years and a Norris winner who cannot defend a crease.

Erik Karlsson escapes a forecheck by turning into it and carries the puck the length of the ice when he decides to. Nobody closes on him. He is 185 pounds, he does not win a battle in the corner, and he defends by skating backwards faster than the forward skates forwards — and when that fails there is no second answer.

Kris Letang at 38 still makes the first pass under a heavy forecheck and still blocks shots and goes into the corner. He came out level with his chances against, which was the best defensive season on the club.

Behind them is size that cannot move the puck. Ryan Graves is 6-5 and 225 and clears a crease and is slow to the puck behind his own net; Ryan Shea takes 76 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet. Owen Pickering is 6-5 and 21 and took 96 per cent of his from beyond 40 — the most extreme perimeter profile in this edition, and a first-round pick with a clear path.

Connor Clifton is 6-0 and 196 and hits everything and fights men considerably bigger, which is the thing this defence has not had.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 26.0 goals worse than the chances faced — 31st in the league. Only Philadelphia was worse, and Philadelphia was worse by a distance nobody else approached.

Tristan Jarry went 16-12-6 with an .8919 in 36 games and was placed on waivers twice, spending part of the season in the American League. He has a career .9093 and two All-Star appearances and has now posted an .8903 and an .8919 in consecutive years. Alex Nedeljkovic played 38 games and was traded to San Jose in the summer.

Arturs Silovs was acquired from Vancouver, where he posted an .8613 in ten games and, the season before, started a second-round playoff series at 23 with almost no NHL experience. A 24-year-old with 19 career games is a prospect and not a plan, and he is the second name on the depth chart of a club that conceded 293 goals.

What the Scout Says

A goaltender with a career .9093 who was waived twice, and a 24-year-old with 19 games.

Tristan Jarry is 6-4 and 201 and technically sound when it is working — square, conventional depth, a good glove. The rebound control is where it goes wrong: pucks come off him into the slot under pressure and the recovery on the second chance is not quick enough to cover it. The puck-handling is genuinely excellent and on a blue line this slow it matters more than usual.

The rest is temperament. He has posted a .9219 and a .9091 on good clubs and an .8903 and an .8919 on bad ones, and the collapse has come with visible unease rather than gradually. Being waived twice in a season and sent to the American League is the sort of thing a career does not always come back from.

Arturs Silovs is 6-4 and 208 and plays deep and large. The lateral recovery is better than the size suggests and the rebound control is inconsistent. What he has that nobody else here has is a playoff series he was thrown into at 23 and did not come apart in.

Who this names 8 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

5th in the league at 7.88 expected goals per 60, over 4:31 a night. Comfortably the best phase on the roster and one of the better units in hockey.

Sidney Crosby scored 12 power-play goals, Rickard Rakell 9, Bryan Rust 5, Kris Letang 4, Evgeni Malkin 4 and Kevin Hayes 4. The construction is Karlsson walking the line, Crosby on the goal line, Malkin at the top of the circle and Rakell in the slot, and it is the same shape that has been run here for most of a decade with the personnel a year older each time.

Erik Karlsson was acquired in 2023 to make this unit work and it does. That is one thing the trade has produced and it has not been enough.

The one thing missing is a body in the paint. Justin Brazeau was signed in the summer at 6-6 and 232, which is the club noticing.

What the Scout Says

Eighteen minutes a night in Boston from a seventh defenceman with 108 NHL games at 28.

How they were used

2024-25 · 79 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.