Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

20

Jesse Puljujarvi

Pittsburgh Penguins Right Wing

Fourth overall in 2016, 6-4, and 54 goals in 356 games at 8.19 per cent.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17EDM28178+510100412.411:15
2017-18EDM6512820-1142021368.813:22
2018-19EDM46459-1416000537.511:57
2020-21EDM55151025+61620011513.015:08
2021-22EDM65142236+22204011608.816:14
2022-23EDM/CAR7551116-13320011254.012:14
2023-24PIT22314+260002910.39:11
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—3565464118+71149046598.213:19

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

22 games, 3 goals and 1 assist for 4 points, 6 penalty minutes, 9:11 a night and plus-2. He took 48.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 203 minutes, the 42nd percentile, and his ice went 9-7 against an expectation of 7.76-8.22.

A goal above the chances at each end across two hundred minutes, which is a sample rather than a season. Nine minutes a night is the least he has been used in any of his seven seasons.

The Finesse Game

36 attempts at a median of 31 feet with 36 per cent of them from inside twenty and 36 per cent from beyond forty, 28 of those on goal, converted at 10.3 per cent against a career 8.19 across 659 shots.

Fifty-four goals in 356 career games at 8.19 per cent. He carries the puck to the net at speed and gets there with it more often than the point totals suggest, and then the finish is not there — that has been the whole story since he was eighteen.

The Physical Game

He is 6-4 and 216 and took 6 penalty minutes.

114 career penalty minutes in 356 games. He forechecks hard and uses the frame to win the wall on the cycle, which is the part of his game that has always translated; he does not play nasty and never has.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2016 by Edmonton, seven seasons, three organisations, and 118 points in 356 games.

He played no NHL games in 2019-20 and came back to score 15 the following season. He is 26, a former fourth overall pick on his third club, and 22 games at nine minutes a night is what a last chance looks like.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks hard and uses the frame to win the wall on the cycle, which is the part of his game that has always translated; he does not play nasty and never has.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck to the net at speed and gets there with it more often than the point totals suggest, and then the finish is not there — that has been the whole story since he was eighteen.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 203 minutes

Expected goals
48.6%
43rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.3%
66th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 9 for, 7 against. Expected: 7.8 and 8.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
43rd

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 22 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
66th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.55 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.2 mph
35th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 203 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
PIT took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.6% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
203 minutes at five-on-five — 0th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Erik Karlsson49.4%48.0%54.2%
Emil Bemstrom50.2%47.6%45.0%
Marcus Pettersson48.1%48.7%53.6%

49.4% together, 48.0% for him apart and 54.2% for Karlsson apart. Karlsson was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

36 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 36% from beyond forty.