Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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17

Filip Hronek

Vancouver Canucks Defense

Forty-three assists and a plus-33, from a man with a career minus-55.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19DET4651823-1030100736.919:58
2019-20DET6592231-38461001257.223:54
2020-21DET5622426-18160001141.823:23
2021-22DET7853338-29362001333.822:02
2022-23DET/VAN6493039+7344011247.321:42
2023-24VAN8154348+33382001483.423:26
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—39035170205-5520010017174.922:32

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 5 goals and 43 assists for 48 points, 2 on the power play, 38 penalty minutes, 23:26 a night and plus-33. He took 51.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,552 minutes, the 63rd percentile, and his ice went 85-55 against an expectation of 67.16-63.44.

Eighteen goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and eight goals of goaltending above them. Forty-eight points and a plus-33 are both career highs and neither of them is close.

The Finesse Game

221 attempts at a median of 52 feet with 75 per cent of them from beyond forty and 5 per cent from inside twenty, 140 of those on goal, converted at 3.4 per cent against a career 4.88 across 717 shots.

170 career assists against 35 goals in 390 games. He plays the simpler half of the club’s top pairing; the puck goes to Quinn Hughes or up the wall, and 221 attempts from beyond the dots is the volume that keeps the other club honest.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 190 and took 38 penalty minutes.

200 career penalty minutes in 390 games. He is an ordinary size and defends with his stick and his gap; twenty-three and a half minutes a night on the top pairing without taking penalties is the useful part of that.

The Intangibles

Fifty-third overall in 2016 by Detroit, six seasons, and Vancouver is his second organisation.

A career minus-55 across six seasons, almost all of it earned in Detroit. He is 26, he was a plus-33 last season, and the difference between those two numbers is the difference between the two clubs he has played for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:10 a game at five-on-five, 93rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He plays the simpler half of the club's top pairing; the puck goes to Quinn Hughes or up the wall, and 221 attempts from beyond the dots is the volume that keeps the other club honest.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He is an ordinary size and defends with his stick and his gap; twenty-three and a half minutes a night on the top pairing without taking penalties is the useful part of that.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,552 minutes

Expected goals
51.4%
63rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.7%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 85 for, 55 against. Expected: 67.2 and 63.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
63rd

The report ranks him 24 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
51st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.48 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.27 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
100.4 mph
93rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1552 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.4% — 1.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,552 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Quinn Hughes53.8%42.4%59.7%
Brock Boeser50.0%52.3%50.6%
J.T. Miller51.0%51.7%51.4%

53.8% together, 42.4% for him apart and 59.7% for Hughes apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Hughes and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

221 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.