Pittsburgh Penguins

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 24 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 260 for, 226 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 52.1% 9th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 53.0% 9th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.50 9th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.71 6th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -22.0 32nd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -3.2 15th of 32

Pittsburgh Penguins scored 22.0 fewer goals than their chances were worth — 22 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 31.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 34.2%; of skater points
From under 26: 6.7%; of skater points
Homegrown: 42.7%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 66.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Fourth in the league at creating chances at even strength and thirty-second at converting them — the worst finishing figure in hockey, and it cost the playoffs.

Who this names 10 of 24 on the roster · 46% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Jeff Carter, Jake Guentzel, Jansen Harkins, Vinnie Hinostroza, Tristan Jarry, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Kris Letang, Drew O'Connor, Marcus Pettersson, Jesse Puljujarvi, Rickard Rakell, Chad Ruhwedel, Bryan Rust, Colin White.

What the Quant Says

40-31-11, 91 points, 19th in the league and fifth in the Metropolitan. Pittsburgh did not make the playoffs.

262 goals for, 17th. 264 against, 18th. Fourth in the league at creating chances at even strength, 9th in shot-attempt share, 9th in chance share, 11th on the power play and 13th on the penalty kill — and 22nd at suppressing chances.

At five-on-five: 168 goals scored against 190.0 expected, and 172 conceded against 168.8. The finishing was 32nd in the league at minus-22.0 and the goaltending 15th. Twenty-two goals is the worst finishing figure in hockey, on the fourth-best rate of chance creation in it. That is the season, and it cost a playoff place by a point.

Sidney Crosby had 93 points in an eighteenth season, every one of the eighteen at a point a game or better. Evgeni Malkin had 83 at 36. Erik Karlsson arrives with 101 points and the largest five-on-five workload in this book.

Erik Karlsson, Ryan Graves, Reilly Smith, Lars Eller, Noel Acciari, Matt Nieto, Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg all arrive. Jeff Petry, Brian Dumoulin, Jason Zucker, Kasperi Kapanen, Teddy Blueger, Brock McGinn, Ryan Poehling and Casey DeSmith do not.

A club whose three best players are 36, 37 and 33 has added a 33-year-old defenceman with a hundred points and a minus-26. The chance creation says this roster is better than nineteenth; the age of it says there is not much time to prove it.

What the Scout Says

Fourth in the league at making chances and thirty-second at converting them.

Pittsburgh created 3.016 expected goals per 60 at even strength, fourth in the league, and scored 22.0 fewer goals at five-on-five than its chances were worth — the worst finishing figure in hockey. Sidney Crosby had 93 points at 36 and Evgeni Malkin 83 at 37. Erik Karlsson arrives with 101 points.

Everything about the play says this club should have made the playoffs and everything about the age says the window is measured in seasons rather than years. It has answered a twenty-two-goal finishing shortfall by adding a hundred-point defenceman.

Who this names 8 of 15 forwards · 67% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Noel Acciari, Jansen Harkins, Vinnie Hinostroza, Matt Nieto, Drew O'Connor, Jesse Puljujarvi, Colin White.

What the Quant Says

262 goals, 17th in the league.

Pittsburgh created 3.016 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 4th in the league, and took 52.1 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 9th, and 53.0 per cent of the expected goals, 9th.

At five-on-five it scored 168 goals against an expectation of 190.0 — a shortfall of 22.0, the worst figure in the league. Twenty-two goals thrown away by a club that generated chances at the fourth-best rate in hockey and missed the playoffs by a point.

Sidney Crosby had 33 goals and 93 points in all 82 games in his eighteenth season — every one of the eighteen at a point a game or better. Evgeni Malkin had 27 and 83 at 36, Jake Guentzel 36 and 73 in 78 games from a median of 18 feet, Rickard Rakell 28 and 60, Bryan Rust 20 and 46 and Kris Letang 41 points in 64 games at 24:51.

Erik Karlsson arrives from San Jose with 25 goals and 101 points — the first defenceman to reach a hundred in a generation — and Reilly Smith from Vegas with 26 goals and 4 shorthanded.

What the Scout Says

Ninety-three points in an eighteenth season, and eighteen consecutive years at a point a game.

Sidney Crosby is 5-11 and 200 and has 1,502 points in 1,190 games, with 33 goals and 60 assists at 36 in all 82 games. He takes 47 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at a median of 22. Every one of his eighteen seasons has finished at a point a game or better, which no other file in this book can say.

Evgeni Malkin is 6-5 and 213 and had 83 points at 36 with 1,090 career penalty minutes, out of the softest deployment of any forward in this book but four.

Jake Guentzel is 5-11 and 176 and scored 36 goals from a median of 18 feet, with 131 shots on goal from inside 20. Rickard Rakell scored 28 at a 21-foot median and Bryan Rust 20 with nothing at all from beyond 40 feet.

Reilly Smith arrives at 6-1 with 764 games, a Stanley Cup and 4 shorthanded goals. Jeff Carter is 38 with 431 career goals and took the ninth-hardest zone starts in this book. Lars Eller arrives having played 84 games of the checking-centre job.

Who this names 6 of 6 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Pittsburgh allowed 2.683 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 22nd in the league, and conceded 264 goals, 18th.

At five-on-five it conceded 172 goals against an expectation of 168.8, and the club's goaltending came in 3.0 goals worse than the chances it faced, 15th in the league.

Erik Karlsson arrives having played 1,683 five-on-five minutes — the largest workload of any skater in this book — at 25:37 a night with 101 points and a minus-26. He has the best long-range conversion of any defenceman in the league.

Kris Letang played 64 games at 24:51 at 36 and covers the fifth-highest mileage in the league, with 3 goals from 109 shots from the point. Marcus Pettersson is 6-5 and 174 pounds and scored one goal from 93 shots on goal, with 51 slap shots that produced nothing at all.

Ryan Graves arrives from New Jersey at 6-5 with a plus-34 and a top speed in the 2nd percentile of the league. Pierre-Olivier Joseph is 24 and has the highest top speed of any defenceman Pittsburgh dresses. Brian Dumoulin has gone to Seattle and Jeff Petry to Detroit.

What the Scout Says

A hundred and one points and a minus-twenty-six on the same defenceman.

Erik Karlsson arrives at 6-0 and 185 with 25 goals and 76 assists, having played 1,683 five-on-five minutes — the largest workload of any skater in this book — at 25:37 a night. He has the best long-range conversion of any defenceman in the league and a career minus-103 in 920 games. Both halves of that are the file.

Kris Letang is 6-0 and 199 and has 1,005 games and 691 points at 36, covering the fifth-highest mileage in the league at 24:51 a night. He took 109 shots from the point and scored 3.

Marcus Pettersson is 6-5 and 174 pounds — an extraordinary shape for a defenceman — and scored one goal from 93 shots on goal, with 51 slap shots that produced nothing at all.

Ryan Graves arrives at 6-5 and 225 with a plus-34 and a top speed in the 2nd percentile of the league, which is the same combination this book keeps recording and keeps failing to explain. Pierre-Olivier Joseph is 24 and the fastest defenceman the club dresses. Chad Ruhwedel is undrafted with 312 games as a seventh defenceman.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 3.0 goals worse than the chances it faced, 15th in the league.

Tristan Jarry went 24-13-7 with a .9095 and a 2.90 in 47 games, facing 1,414 shots with 2 shutouts — a seventh season without once reaching sixty games. His career line across 206 games is a .9136.

Alex Nedeljkovic arrives with 5-7-2 and an .8948 in 15 games. He posted a .9321 in Carolina in 2020-21 and two below-average seasons behind rebuilding clubs since, on a career .9069 across 103 games.

Magnus Hellberg arrives at 6-6 with an .8881 in 18 games — 18 NHL games after ten years of waiting for them.

Casey DeSmith played 38 games and has gone to Vancouver.

Jarry has never played sixty games in a season and Pittsburgh has replaced a 38-game backup with two men whose last figures were .8948 and .8881. The availability of the first name on this page is the whole of the department.

What the Scout Says

A seventh season without sixty games, and two backups whose last figures were .8948 and .8881.

Tristan Jarry is 6-4 and 201 and went 24-13-7 with a .9095 in 47 games, on a career .9136 across 206. He is large, athletic and technically clean when healthy, and he has never once played sixty games in a season across seven of them. That is the file.

Alex Nedeljkovic arrives at 6-0 and 205 with one .9321 season in Carolina and two below-average ones behind rebuilding clubs since, on a career .9069 across 103 games.

Magnus Hellberg arrives at 6-6 and 206 with 18 NHL games at 31, after ten years of waiting for them.

Casey DeSmith has gone to Vancouver. A club that missed the playoffs by a point has replaced its 38-game backup with two men who were worse, and is relying on a goaltender who has not played sixty games in seven attempts.

Who this names 9 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

13th in the league at 7.251 expected goals per 60, over 5:32 a night — the fourth-most power-play time of any club.

Evgeni Malkin scored 11 power-play goals, Rickard Rakell 11, Jake Guentzel 11, Sidney Crosby 9, Kris Letang 6, Jeff Carter 4 and Bryan Rust 2. Reilly Smith scored 6 elsewhere and Erik Karlsson 5.

Evgeni Malkin has 173 career power-play goals in 1,063 games and Sidney Crosby 162 in 1,190 — the two largest figures on any roster in this book. Jeff Carter has 121 in 1,249, Kris Letang 52 in 1,005, Reilly Smith arrives with 45 in 764, Rickard Rakell has 44 in 651, Jake Guentzel 44 in 453 and Erik Karlsson arrives with 40 in 920.

Three men on this unit have scored more than a hundred career power-play goals, and it finished thirteenth. That is the clearest statement in this chapter of how much of the club is being carried by its history.

What the Scout Says

Thirteenth in the league, with three men past a hundred career power-play goals.

Evgeni Malkin has 173 career power-play goals in 1,063 games and Sidney Crosby 162 in 1,190 — the two largest figures on any roster in this book, on the same unit, in the same room, for eighteen seasons.

Jeff Carter has 121 in 1,249 games and stands in front at 38. Jake Guentzel has 44 in 453 games — the highest rate on the roster — and works the goal line beside Crosby.

Erik Karlsson arrives with 40 in 920 games to take a point that Kris Letang has held for seventeen seasons and 52 power-play goals. Reilly Smith arrives with 45 in 764 and Rickard Rakell has 44 in 651.

Thirteenth in the league on the third-most power-play minutes in it, from the most decorated unit in this book. The personnel cannot be the explanation.

Who this names 6 men details

What the Quant Says

13th in the league at 6.822 expected goals against per 60, over 5:06 a night, 15th in shorthanded time.

Kris Letang scored 1 shorthanded goal. Reilly Smith scored 4 elsewhere and Lars Eller 1.

Jeff Carter has 19 career shorthanded goals in 1,249 games, the most on the roster and one of the larger figures in this book. Reilly Smith arrives with 13 in 764 — the highest rate here — Lars Eller arrives with 8 in 954, Matt Nieto with 6 in 651, Bryan Rust has 5 in 505 and Kris Letang 5 in 1,005.

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.