Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

13

Kevin Hayes

Pittsburgh Penguins Right Wing

Ten career shorthanded goals, the most on this roster, and twelve penalty minutes in 79 games at 6-3.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15NYR79172845+152211111115.313:02
2015-16NYR79142236+43030313310.513:40
2016-17NYR76173249+101811414311.916:34
2017-18NYR76251944+11862417214.517:21
2018-19NYR/WPG71193655-21232215612.218:17
2019-20PHI69231841-63444517513.117:44
2020-21PHI55121931-2223021279.417:31
2021-22PHI48102131-20262011267.917:55
2022-23PHI81183654-22236012098.617:34
2023-24STL791316290120021538.514:28
2024-25 so far
Career713168247415-22217291025150511.216:16

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games with St. Louis, 13 goals and 16 assists for 29 points, none on the power play, 12 penalty minutes, 14:28 a night and even, with 2 game-winners. He took 44.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,012 minutes, the 17th percentile, and his ice went 36-35 against an expectation of 34.63-43.62.

Nine goals of goaltending above what the shots called for, which is most of the reason a 44 per cent chance share came out even. Twenty-nine points is the lowest total of any full season he has played.

The Finesse Game

194 attempts at a median of 26 feet with 40 per cent of them from inside twenty, 142 of those on goal, converted at 8.5 per cent against a career 11.16 across 1,505 shots.

247 career assists in 713 games. He is a large centre who plays a slow, patient game with the puck — he holds it at the top of the circle until a lane opens rather than forcing one — and 415 career points is what that has been worth.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 217 and took 12 penalty minutes.

217 career penalty minutes in 713 games, and twelve in 79 last season. He is one of the largest forwards on this roster and one of the least physical; he shields pucks with his frame and does almost nothing else with it.

The Intangibles

Twenty-fourth overall in 2010 by Chicago, ten seasons, five organisations, and 415 points in 713 games.

Ten career shorthanded goals, the most of anybody on this roster. A career minus-22 across five clubs is the record of a centre who has taken the hard minutes without the results ever quite following.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,012 minutes

Expected goals
44.3%
17th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.8%
21st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 35 against. Expected: 34.6 and 43.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
17th

The report ranks him 30 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with STL · 1012 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
STL took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.3% — 0.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,012 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexey Toropchenko42.0%46.0%41.6%
Colton Parayko47.6%42.5%43.6%
Nick Leddy45.2%43.7%44.4%

42.0% together, 46.0% for him apart and 41.6% for Toropchenko apart. He was better away from Toropchenko, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Toropchenko.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

194 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.