Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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91

Steven Stamkos

Nashville Predators Center

Five hundred and fifty-five goals, 214 of them on the power play, and a career 16.66 per cent.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09TBL79232346-133990118112.714:56
2009-10TBL82514495-238241529717.220:33
2010-11TBL82454691+374170827216.520:12
2011-12TBL82603797+7661201230319.822:01
2012-13TBL48292857-432100215718.522:01
2013-14TBL37251540+91891512420.220:15
2014-15TBL82432972+249130626816.019:22
2015-16TBL77362864+338141821616.719:45
2016-17TBL1791120+3143015815.517:53
2017-18TBL78275986+1872150121212.718:46
2018-19TBL82455398+437192623419.218:18
2019-20TBL57293766+1422100617616.518:25
2020-21TBL38171734+41610019118.718:16
2021-22TBL814264106+24361601124117.418:29
2022-23TBL81345084-546140624014.219:01
2023-24TBL79404181-2134190626215.318:14
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—10825555821137+46631214585333216.719:10

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games in Tampa Bay, 40 goals and 41 assists for 81 points, 19 on the power play, 34 penalty minutes, 18:14 a night and minus-21. He took 49.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,070 minutes, the 51st percentile, and his ice went 49-60 against an expectation of 45.02-45.30, all of it with the Lightning.

Four goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and fifteen more conceded than they called for. Tampa Bay’s goaltending was the worst in the league last season and the minus-21 is almost entirely that.

The Finesse Game

262 shots at a median of 30 feet with 27 per cent from inside 20, converted at 15.3 per cent against a career 16.66 across 3,332 shots.

582 career assists in 1,082 games. Sixteen and a half per cent over three thousand three hundred shots is a remarkable rate to hold for sixteen seasons, and the reason is a one-timer from the left circle that has been the same shot since 2008 and still goes in. 214 career power-play goals.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 193 and has never played a physical game and never needed to.

631 career penalty minutes in 1,082 games is a low rate. He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and takes the offensive-zone draw rather than the defensive one.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2008 out of Markham, sixteen seasons and 1,082 games, all of it in Tampa Bay, where he was captain from 2014 and won the Stanley Cup twice.

He is 34 and Nashville has signed him to score twenty on the power play. Everything else — the feet, the defending, the plus-minus — was already going before he arrived, and the shot is the last thing to leave.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-1 and 193 and has never played a physical game and never needed to.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and takes the offensive-zone draw rather than the defensive one.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and takes the offensive-zone draw rather than the defensive one.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and takes the offensive-zone draw rather than the defensive one.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “First overall in 2008 out of Markham, sixteen seasons and 1,082 games, all of it in Tampa Bay, where he was captain from 2014 and won the Stanley Cup twice.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,070 minutes

Expected goals
49.8%
51st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.2%
49th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 60 against. Expected: 45.0 and 45.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
51st

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 79 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
61st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.49 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.0 mph
94th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with TBL · 1070 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TBL took 50.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.8% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,070 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Victor Hedman46.5%52.6%55.2%
Nikita Kucherov51.2%48.8%56.0%
Anthony Cirelli47.6%51.2%55.6%

46.5% together, 52.6% for him apart and 55.2% for Hedman apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

368 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 41 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.