Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

52

Emil Bemstrom

Pittsburgh Penguins Center

Thirteen of his 34 career goals have come on the power play, and 30 penalty minutes in 228 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20CBJ56101020-1085049710.312:16
2020-21CBJ20325+201002810.712:51
2021-22CBJ416511-14001629.710:31
2022-23CBJ5571522-116300957.412:07
2023-24CBJ/PIT568816-512401839.611:09
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—228344074-253013063659.311:41

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

56 games across Columbus and Pittsburgh, 8 goals and 8 assists for 16 points, 4 on the power play, 12 penalty minutes, 11:09 a night and minus-5, with 1 game-winner. He took 45.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 561 minutes, the 25th percentile, and his ice went 21-24 against an expectation of 19.42-23.02.

Two goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and one below at the other end. Four of his eight goals came on the power play, which is the pattern of his whole career rather than an accident of one season.

The Finesse Game

122 attempts at a median of 30 feet with 30 per cent of them from inside twenty and 30 per cent from beyond forty, 81 of those on goal, converted at 9.6 per cent against a career 9.32 across 365 shots.

Thirteen of his 34 career goals have come on the power play, from 228 games. The shot is the reason he keeps getting chances — a hard, quick release from the top of the circle that a unit can build a look around — and the even-strength game has never caught up to it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 190 and took 12 penalty minutes.

Thirty career penalty minutes in 228 games is one of the lowest rates on this roster. He is not a physical player at either end and does not pretend otherwise; there is nothing in his game that requires him to win a puck by force.

The Intangibles

One hundred and seventeenth overall in 2017 by Columbus, five seasons, two organisations, and 74 points in 228 games.

A career minus-25. He is 25 and has been a fourth-round pick playing eleven minutes a night for five years, and the power-play shot is the one thing that has kept him in the league.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    29.5% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “The shot is the reason he keeps getting chances — a hard, quick release from the top of the circle that a unit can build a look around — and the even-strength game has never caught up to it.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is not a physical player at either end and does not pretend otherwise; there is nothing in his game that requires him to win a puck by force.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 561 minutes

Expected goals
45.8%
26th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.6%
42nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 24 against. Expected: 19.4 and 23.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
27th
Numbers
26th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 56 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.86 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.81 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.3 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with CBJ · 362 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
PIT took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.8% — 5.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
561 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kent Johnson46.2%45.5%46.7%
Cole Sillinger47.6%44.9%43.1%
Ivan Provorov41.5%47.2%45.8%

46.2% together, 45.5% for him apart and 46.7% for Johnson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

122 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 30% from beyond forty.