Ottawa Senators

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 20 reports in the 2024-25 edition.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2023-24 · 82 games · 247 for, 221 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 50.4% 18th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 49.2% 21st of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.10 16th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.37 4th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +2.9 16th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -26.6 30th of 32

Ottawa Senators got 26.6 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 27 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 27.0; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 22.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 60.7%; of skater points
Homegrown: 58.7%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 83.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

An even club at five-on-five that conceded 192 goals against an expectation of 165.4 — twenty-seven goals of goaltending, and the answer bought in one trade.

Who this names 11 of 20 on the roster · 62% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Michael Amadio, Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot, Nick Cousins, Anton Forsberg, Noah Gregor, Zack MacEwen, Josh Norris, Artem Zub.

What the Quant Says

37-41-4, 78 points, 26th in the league.

At five-on-five: 50.4 per cent of the attempts, 49.2 per cent of the chances, 163 goals scored against an expectation of 160.1. Even, or slightly better. And 192 conceded against an expectation of 165.4.

Twenty-seven goals. The goaltending was thirtieth in the league and every goaltender who played twenty-five games finished under .900. Everything else about this club is a middle-of-the-table team with four sixty-point forwards and a 21-year-old playing 23:13 a night.

255 goals for and 281 against. Brady Tkachuk is 25 with 349 points in 440 games and 627 penalty minutes. Tim Stützle is 22 with 247 points in 285 games. Jake Sanderson is 22 with 70 points in 156 games. Shane Pinto is 23, Ridly Greig 22 and Jacob Bernard-Docker 24.

Against that: Claude Giroux is 36 with 1,182 games, David Perron is 36 with 1,131, Travis Hamonic is 34 with 841 and Nick Jensen is 34. The club has bought experience around a young core and traded for Linus Ullmark, and the second of those is worth more than all of the first.

What the Scout Says

A young core, a very good power play, and a crease that cost twenty-seven goals.

Brady Tkachuk took 357 shots and 134 penalty minutes — fourth in the league in one and second in the other, and the only man in the top five of both. Tim Stützle has 247 points in 285 games at 22. Jake Sanderson played 23:13 a night at 21. Claude Giroux has 1,066 career points.

Six of the regulars are 25 or younger and four are 34 or older, and there is very little in between. The bet is that Tkachuk, Stützle, Sanderson, Pinto and Greig are a playoff core and that Ullmark is the last piece.

Who this names 5 of 12 forwards · 53% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Michael Amadio, Nick Cousins, Noah Gregor, Ridly Greig, Zack MacEwen, David Perron, Shane Pinto.

What the Quant Says

255 goals, 18th in the league, on the 20th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.517 expected goals per 60. Those two agree, and both are ordinary.

At five-on-five Ottawa took 50.4 per cent of the shot attempts, 18th, and 49.2 per cent of the expected goals, 21st. An even club in the run of play. Nothing about the attack explains a twenty-sixth-place finish.

And it scored 163 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 160.1 — a surplus of 2.9, 16th in the league. Slightly above average at finishing.

The power play was 11th at 7.125 expected goals per 60, over the most power-play time in hockey. Ottawa spent 5:41 a night with the man advantage, more than any other club, and got an above-average rate out of it.

Brady Tkachuk scored 37 goals on 357 shots, the fourth-highest shot total in the league. Brady Tkachuk had 74 points, Tim Stützle 70, Drake Batherson 66 and Claude Giroux 64 at 36. Four forwards above sixty points on a club that finished twenty-sixth.

What the Scout Says

A 6-4 winger who shoots more than almost anybody, and three men behind him.

Brady Tkachuk is 6-4 and 226 and put 357 of his 477 attempts on goal, at a median of 23 feet with 45 per cent of them from inside twenty, converting 10.4 per cent against a career 9.61. Thirty-seven goals from that volume and that shot chart is exactly what a power forward is supposed to produce, and 134 penalty minutes is what comes with it.

Tim Stützle is 6-0 and 187 and had 52 assists at 22, with 156 in 285 career games. He carries the puck through the neutral zone as well as anybody on the roster and the shot has never matched the passing.

Drake Batherson is 6-3 and converted 14.3 per cent on 196 shots. Claude Giroux had 64 points at 36 and has 716 career assists. Josh Norris shoots at 17.2 per cent for a career across 407 shots — the highest rate on this roster by a distance — and has played 183 games in five seasons.

Who this names 6 of 6 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Ottawa allowed 2.595 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 19th in the league. Ordinary again.

And it conceded 192 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 165.4. Twenty-seven goals more than the chances called for. The club's goaltending came in 26.6 goals worse than the shots it faced, 30th in the league, and there is no other explanation for a twenty-sixth-place finish anywhere in this chapter.

Jake Sanderson played 79 games at 23:13 a night at 21 and had 10 goals and 28 assists, with his ice at 57-55 against an expectation of 55.45-49.14. Artem Zub is undrafted and took 21:01 with 25 points in 69 games. Thomas Chabot played 51 games at 23:03 and has 197 career assists in 432 games. Nick Jensen arrives from Washington at 34 having taken 19:38 a night there.

Jacob Bernard-Docker took the 17th percentile of chances over 1,021 minutes and Travis Hamonic the 8th over 640. The bottom of this blue line was a genuine problem and the top of it — Sanderson at 21, Zub, Chabot — was not.

What the Scout Says

A 21-year-old taking twenty-three minutes, and a bottom pair that was the worst part of the club.

Jake Sanderson is 6-2 and 202 and played 79 games at 23:13 at 21, with 56 career assists in 156 games. He skates the puck out of his own end and the first pass is already very good; the defending is ahead of where a fifth-overall pick usually is at that age.

Artem Zub is undrafted, 6-3 and 201, and took 21:01 a night with a 69th-percentile chance share. Four per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, which is a defenceman doing exactly one job. Thomas Chabot is 6-1 and has 197 career assists in 432 games and played 51.

Jacob Bernard-Docker took the 17th percentile of chances and Travis Hamonic the 8th. Nick Jensen arrives from Washington at 34 with 562 games, 19 career goals and no power-play goal in any of them.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 26.6 goals worse than the chances it faced, 30th in the league. Two clubs did worse. This is the season.

Joonas Korpisalo went 21-26-4 with an .8896 in 55 games and has gone to Boston. Anton Forsberg went 15-12-0 with an .8902 and a 3.21 in 30 games, facing 765 shots, with 2 shutouts, against a career .9049 across 160. Mads Sogaard took 6.

Ottawa is one of only three clubs in this edition where every goaltender who played twenty-five games finished under .900. The other two were Minnesota, who were 28th at this, and Tampa Bay, who were 32nd.

Linus Ullmark arrives from Boston having gone 22-10-7 with a .9147 and a 2.57 in 40 games, facing 1,207, with 2 shutouts. He is 31, a sixth-round pick, and his career line across 247 games is a .9184 with 138 wins. Ottawa finished thirteen points behind Washington for the last Eastern playoff place, and the crease is the only place on this roster where thirteen points are lying on the floor.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-seven goals lost, both goaltenders under .900, and the best available answer bought to end it.

Linus Ullmark is 6-4 and 223 and plays a large, deep, positional game, taking away the net with size rather than movement. Eight career shutouts in 247 games at a career .9184 and 138 wins. He has been above .9140 in each of his last four seasons and went 40-6-1 with a .9375 in 2022-23. He handles the puck adequately and the rebound control is good; at that size the second chance rarely arrives.

Anton Forsberg is 6-3 and 200 and plays higher in his crease, and an .8902 across 30 games against a career .9049 is a bad season inside an ordinary career. He is 31, a seventh-round pick, and has 160 games.

Ottawa lost 26.6 goals to its crease and finished twenty-sixth. If Ullmark simply plays to his career average this club gains most of them back, and everything else on this roster was already a playoff team's worth of hockey.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 18 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Anton Forsberg and Linus Ullmark. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2023-24.

Michael Amadio

RW · Ottawa Senators

A twenty-one-foot shot median and a Stanley Cup, on thirteen minutes a night.

Drake Batherson

RW · Ottawa Senators

A fourth-round pick with 66 points and a career minus-71 in 309 games.

Jacob Bernard-Docker

D · Ottawa Senators

Ninety per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet, on the 17th percentile of chances.

Thomas Chabot

D · Ottawa Senators

Twenty-three minutes a night and 197 career assists, from a man who has reached seventy games twice in seven seasons.

Nick Cousins

C · Ottawa Senators

Ten goals of finishing below what the chances were worth, on a club that won the Stanley Cup.

Anton Forsberg

G · Ottawa Senators

An .8902 across 30 games, inside a career .9049 and nine seasons of being somebody's backup.

Claude Giroux

RW · Ottawa Senators

Sixty-four points at 36, in his seventeenth season and his 1,182nd game.

Noah Gregor

LW · Ottawa Senators

The ninth percentile of chances over 644 minutes, on the club that finished fifth in the East.

Ridly Greig

C · Ottawa Senators

Sixty-six penalty minutes at 22, and the best finishing surplus on the club.

Travis Hamonic

D · Ottawa Senators

Eight hundred and forty-one games, 755 penalty minutes, and the worst chance share on the club.

Nick Jensen

D · Ottawa Senators

Five hundred and sixty-two games, nineteen goals, and no power-play goal in any of them.

Zack MacEwen

C · Ottawa Senators

Undrafted, 6-4 and 226, and 302 penalty minutes in 216 games at six and a half minutes a night.

Josh Norris

C · Ottawa Senators

A career 17.2 per cent shooter who has played 183 games in five seasons.

David Perron

LW · Ottawa Senators

Seventeen seasons, 768 points and 825 penalty minutes, and a twenty-sixth-overall pick who outlasted his draft class.

Shane Pinto

C · Ottawa Senators

Forty-one games, the second-best chance share on the club, and 27 points inside them.

Jake Sanderson

D · Ottawa Senators

Twenty-three minutes a night at 21, and the best defenceman on the club by a distance.

Tim Stützle

C · Ottawa Senators

Fifty-two assists at 22, and twenty-one fewer goals than the year before.

Brady Tkachuk

LW · Ottawa Senators

Fourth in the league in shots on goal and second in penalty minutes, and the only man in the top five of both.

Linus Ullmark

G · Ottawa Senators

A career .9184 across 247 games, bought to fix a crease that cost twenty-seven goals.

Artem Zub

D · Ottawa Senators

Undrafted out of Khabarovsk, and twenty-one minutes a night of doing exactly one job.

How they were used

2023-24 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.