Ottawa Senators

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 21 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 247 for, 221 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.5% 12th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 51.0% 15th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.10 16th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.37 4th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -13.6 30th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -18.6 27th of 32

Ottawa Senators scored 13.6 fewer goals than their chances were worth and got 18.6 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 32 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 26.0; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 12.1%; of skater points
From under 26: 60.7%; of skater points
Homegrown: 55.8%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 83.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

The most power-play time of any club in the league and the sixth-best rate on it — and thirtieth at finishing, twenty-seventh in the crease, and eighty-six points.

Who this names 8 of 21 on the roster · 44% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom, Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, Anton Forsberg, Ridly Greig, Travis Hamonic, Mathieu Joseph, Mark Kastelic, Parker Kelly, Shane Pinto, Mads Sogaard, Artem Zub.

What the Quant Says

39-35-8, 86 points, 21st in the league and sixth in the Atlantic.

261 goals for, 18th. 271 against, 20th. Twelfth at creating chances at even strength, 15th at suppressing them, 6th on the power play over the most power-play time in the league — and 30th at finishing and 27th in the crease.

At five-on-five: 151 goals scored against 164.6 expected, and 177 conceded against 158.4. The finishing was 30th at minus-13.6 and the goaltending 27th at minus-18.6. Thirty-two goals lost in the two departments that do not answer to coaching, on a club that was twelfth and fifteenth in the two that do.

Tim Stützle had 90 points at 21. Brady Tkachuk had 83 points and 126 penalty minutes. Claude Giroux passed a thousand career points. Jake Sanderson played 22 minutes a night at 20.

Vladimir Tarasenko, Dominik Kubalik, Joonas Korpisalo and Zack MacEwen arrive. Alex DeBrincat, Austin Watson, Tyler Motte, Nick Holden and Cam Talbot do not.

There is a very good young club underneath this record. Three forwards under 25 scored 20 goals or more, the blue line has a 20-year-old playing 22 minutes, and the power play is sixth in the league on more ice than anybody. Everything that went wrong last season went wrong in the two places a roster cannot fix by being better.

What the Scout Says

Ninety points at twenty-one, and the most power-play time in the league.

Tim Stützle had 39 goals and 90 points at 21. Brady Tkachuk had 83 points and 126 penalty minutes at 24. Jake Sanderson played 21:55 a night at 20 with the 95th percentile of measured top speed. Ottawa spent more of every game on the power play than any club in hockey and finished sixth on it by rate.

This is a young, fast, heavy club that finished twenty-first because it could not finish and could not keep goal. Neither of those is a criticism of the roster's shape.

Who this names 8 of 12 forwards · 81% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Ridly Greig, Mathieu Joseph, Parker Kelly, Zack MacEwen.

What the Quant Says

261 goals, 18th in the league.

Ottawa created 2.726 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 12th, and took 51.5 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 12th, and 51.0 per cent of the expected goals, 15th.

At five-on-five it scored 151 goals against an expectation of 164.6 — a shortfall of 13.6, 30th in the league. Twelfth at making chances and thirtieth at converting them.

Tim Stützle had 39 goals and 90 points at 21 in 78 games, on the sixth-best close-range conversion rate in the league. Brady Tkachuk had 35 and 83 with 126 penalty minutes on 347 shots and 184 of them from inside 20 feet. Claude Giroux had 35 and 79 at 35 in all 82 games, and Drake Batherson 22 and 62 with 14 power-play goals.

Thomas Chabot had 41 points in 68 games at 24:58, Shane Pinto 20 goals in a first full season and Jake Sanderson 32 points at 20.

Vladimir Tarasenko arrives with 18 goals and 50 points, and Dominik Kubalik from Detroit with 20 and 45.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-nine goals at twenty-one, and a captain with a hundred and twenty-six penalty minutes.

Tim Stützle is 6-0 and 187 and covers 3.56 miles a game with 39 goals and 51 assists at 21. He has the sixth-best close-range conversion rate in the league and 177 points in 210 career games.

Brady Tkachuk is 6-4 and 226 and took 347 shots with 184 from inside 20 feet, on 126 penalty minutes. He is 24 with 493 career penalty minutes and 275 points in 359 games — a power forward in the exact sense the phrase used to mean.

Claude Giroux is 5-11 and 186 and has 1,002 points in 1,100 games, with the third-best close-range conversion rate in the league at 35. Drake Batherson is 6-3 and had 62 points with 14 power-play goals and a minus-35 that the chance model says was not his.

Shane Pinto scored 20 goals at 6-3 in a first full season. Mark Kastelic is 6-4 and 234 with 102 penalty minutes in 65 games at under nine minutes a night.

Vladimir Tarasenko arrives at 6-1 and 219 with 675 games and 574 points, and Dominik Kubalik with a 30-goal rookie season behind him and 161 points in 283 games.

Who this names 6 of 6 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Ottawa allowed 2.604 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 15th in the league, and conceded 271 goals, 20th.

At five-on-five it conceded 177 goals against an expectation of 158.4, and the club's goaltending came in 18.6 goals worse than the chances it faced, 27th in the league.

Thomas Chabot covered 3.75 miles a game — the third-highest figure in the league — from the 40th percentile of measured top speed, at 24:58 a night. Jake Sanderson played 77 games at 21:55 at 20 with the 95th percentile of measured top speed.

Jakob Chychrun had 33 points in 48 games between Arizona and Ottawa at 22:42 a night, with one goal on 73 shots from beyond 40 feet. Travis Hamonic slaps 40 per cent of everything he throws and took 105 long shots on goal for 3 goals.

Artem Zub is undrafted and is the eighth-slowest measured skater in the league, and held a chance share above fifty out of the hardest deployment on the blue line. Erik Brannstrom is 5-10 with 4 goals in 190 games.

What the Scout Says

Three and three-quarter miles a game from the first pair, and a twenty-year-old at twenty-two minutes.

Thomas Chabot is 6-1 and 200 and covers 3.75 miles a game — the third-highest figure in the league — from the 40th percentile of measured top speed. He played 24:58 a night in 68 games. This is the ordinary shape of a first-pair defenceman taken to its limit: enormous mileage at a moderate maximum.

Jake Sanderson is 6-2 and 202 and played 77 games at 21:55 at 20, with the 95th percentile of measured top speed — the fastest man on the blue line by a distance and a 32-point rookie season.

Jakob Chychrun is 6-2 and 215 and had 33 points in 48 games at 22:42, covering 3.19 miles a game. Artem Zub is undrafted out of Khabarovsk and is the eighth-slowest measured skater in the league, and holds a chance share above fifty out of the hardest deployment on the blue line — which is worth stating plainly because almost nothing else in this book does.

Travis Hamonic is 6-1 and has 715 career penalty minutes in 793 games and slaps 40 per cent of everything he throws. Erik Brannstrom is 5-10 and 185 with 4 goals in 190 games.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 18.6 goals worse than the chances it faced, 27th in the league. Five men played in this crease last season.

Anton Forsberg went 11-11-2 with a .9021 and a 3.26 in 28 games, facing 817 shots with 2 shutouts. His career line across 130 games is a .9079.

Mads Sogaard went 8-6-3 with an .8893 in 19 games at 22. He is 6-7 — the tallest goaltender in this book.

Joonas Korpisalo arrives, having gone 18-14-4 with a .9138 in 39 games between Columbus and Los Angeles — a hundred points above anything an Ottawa goaltender posted. His career line across 221 games is a .9039.

Cam Talbot played 36 games here and has gone to Los Angeles.

A club that finished fifteenth at suppressing chances got twenty-seventh-place goaltending, and has answered it with a 29-year-old whose career figure is .9039. That is a bet on the last season rather than on the career.

What the Scout Says

Five goaltenders last season, and the best save percentage among them belonged to somebody else's club.

Anton Forsberg is 6-3 and 200 and posted a .9021 in 28 games, on a career .9079 across 130. He is technically sound and has never been given a full season anywhere.

Mads Sogaard is 6-7 — the tallest goaltender in this book — and posted an .8893 in 19 games at 22. There is a great deal of net covered and not much else established.

Joonas Korpisalo arrives at 6-4 with a .9138 last season and a career .9039 across 221 games. He is the best save percentage this crease will have had in some time and the career figure says not to expect it twice.

Cam Talbot has gone to Los Angeles. Ottawa finished fifteenth at suppressing chances and twenty-seventh in the crease. Fixing the second of those was the whole summer, and the club has bought one season of evidence rather than a career of it.

Who this names 8 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

21st in the league at 6.931 expected goals against per 60, over 5:52 a night — the third-most shorthanded time of any club. A great deal of ice at a poor rate.

Tim Stützle scored 3 shorthanded goals, Mathieu Joseph 2 and Vladimir Tarasenko 1 elsewhere.

Claude Giroux has 7 career shorthanded goals in 1,100 games, the most on the roster, and Mathieu Joseph 4 in 288 — by rate the largest figure here. Tim Stützle has 4 in 210 and Travis Hamonic 2 in 793.

D · Ottawa Senators

Undrafted, and the slowest measured skater on any blue line in this batch.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.