Ottawa Senators

What the Quant Says

278 goals from a club that was 3rd in the league in chance share at 54.9 per cent and 11th in creating them, and finished 8.9 above expectation, 10th.

Tim Stützle put up 83 points at 24, taking 45 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. Drake Batherson scored 33, a fourth-round pick at the 94th percentile. Dylan Cozens scored 28 at the 98th percentile in chance share — and had the goals go 43-43 against him anyway. Shane Pinto scored 23 from the third line at the 86th. Michael Amadio takes 54 per cent of his shots from a median of 18 feet. And Claude Giroux, at 38 and in his 1,345th game, was plus-20 at the 91st percentile.

This is a deep, young, well-organised attack in which almost every forward is on the right side of the ledger. It scored 278 and was owed more.

What the Scout Says

1 player who can beat anybody and a supporting cast that arrives rather than races. Tim Stützle's skating is among the four or five best in the league and the playmaking is the larger half of him; the one honest question is that he does not win wall battles and avoids the interior except when he is shooting, which is the thing a series tests. Drake Batherson is the opposite method — not fast, and it does not matter, because he arrives in quiet ice rather than racing anyone to it, with a release that is quick and disguised.

Dylan Cozens brings the heavier version: high volume from good ice, a heavy shot, hands that work at speed. Shane Pinto finishes from reasonable ice and is hard to shift below the goal line. Ridly Greig gets to the paint and takes the punishment for being there, which is where his scoring comes from. Andre Burakovsky has the hands and never found the consistency, and avoids the interior — on a structure this good he is either the beneficiary of it or the man who breaks it. William Eklund is the newest creator and does not win wall battles either, and Michael Amadio and Fabian Zetterlund do the quiet finishing a good structure creates.

What the Quant Says

The best in the league: first of 32 in even-strength expected goals against, at 2.19 per 60. Nobody else is under 2.25.

Jake Sanderson plays 24:50 a night at 24 and put up 54 points at the 92nd percentile. Jordan Spence posted the 99th percentile in both columns — and had the goals go 58-43 against him while the expected goals ran 60.1 to 38.0 in his favour, which is a 19-goal robbery in a single season. Tyler Kleven is 6-5 at the 89th; Artem Zub, undrafted, was plus-22; Thomas Chabot takes the quiet half at the 84th.

There is no weak link on this blue line. Every regular finished above the 65th percentile. What happened to them happened behind them.

What the Scout Says

The best defensive group in the league and it is built in matched pairs. Jake Sanderson is the complete article — he leaves the zone with the puck, joins the attack and recovers, and almost nobody outside the province talks about him. Artem Zub hits, blocks shots and clears his own crease properly, and now plays the most minutes on the best defensive team in hockey after arriving as an unheralded signing.

Jordan Spence is the club's purest puck-mover: a first pass that is quick and almost always right, and retrieval under a forecheck without panicking, which at his size is the only way to survive. He cannot clear a crease and gets moved out of the front of his own net by anyone who wants the space, so he avoids the problem rather than solving it, ending plays with feet and stick before contact is available. Tyler Kleven is the counterweight — genuine appetite for contact, and he owns the front of his own net in a way most young defencemen do not. Thomas Chabot can still carry a puck through a neutral-zone trap without help, and his availability has been the concern for years. Nikolas Matinpalo makes the short pass and defends. It is a group with a role for every skill on it, which is rarer than it sounds.

What the Quant Says

The worst in the league. Ottawa's goaltending came in 23.1 goals worse than the chances faced, 32nd of 32 — in front of the best defensive structure in hockey.

Linus Ullmark took 49 games and stopped .8907. Leevi Meriläinen took 20 and stopped .8600. Samuel Ersson arrives having stopped .8696 across 33. 3 goaltenders, none above .891, behind a team that concedes fewer and lower-quality chances than anyone.

Nothing else on this roster needs fixing. This does, and until it is fixed every other number on the page is being wasted.

What the Scout Says

3 goaltenders and the same sentence about each of them. Linus Ullmark is 6-4 and takes away a great deal simply by being square, which behind a club that concedes so little ought to be ideal; the lateral movement is where it goes wrong, and he is beaten across the crease more than a goaltender of his reputation should be, with rebound control that has never been the strong part.

Samuel Ersson is reactive rather than positional, relies on athleticism, and recovers slowly enough that the second chance is usually the goal. His rebound control is the most damaging weakness available behind a club that concedes low-danger volume, because it turns harmless shots into dangerous ones. Leevi Meriläinen is square and calm and does not fight the puck, and what went wrong is not visible in his style at all — he was simply beaten by shots he should have had, at 23, in a share of a starting job that is a great deal to ask of a man with 30-odd career games. A club built this well in front of the net has one thing left to fix.

What the Quant Says

18th at 7.10 expected goals per 60 — on 5:28 a night, the third-most power-play time in the league.

Cozens led it with 13 power-play goals, Batherson 13, Stützle 9, Pinto 5. League-median conversion on near-league-most opportunity is the one soft phase, and on a club whose even-strength play is this good it costs less than it would anywhere else. It is still several goals a season left on the table.

What the Scout Says

Well shaped and short of one thing. Tim Stützle is the entry and the manipulator — a killer cannot close on him without the gap moving — and Drake Batherson is the finish, arriving in quiet ice with a disguised release and going to the net front when the puck is elsewhere. Claude Giroux still runs a half-wall as well as anyone alive and has the assist total of a career spent doing it. Dylan Cozens supplies the heavy shot from the second wave.

Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are both genuine skating threats from the point, and Jordan Spence's first pass is quick enough to beat a killer's read. What the group has not got is a man who lives in the paint and will be cross-checked for 2 minutes to stay there — Batherson goes there and is not a physical presence, Stützle only enters it to shoot. Ridly Greig is the closest thing to it and he is 184 pounds.

What the Quant Says

4th in the league at 6.37 expected goals against per 60, over 4:56 a game, 15th.

The same structure that produces the best even-strength defence in hockey produces a top-5 kill, and it is built from the men who take the penalties as much as the men who kill them: Nick Cousins 92 minutes, Ridly Greig 83, Zub 57. Continuity is 83.3 per cent, 7th in the league — almost all of this is coming back. If the goaltending merely reaches league average, this is a very dangerous team.

What the Scout Says

The best-staffed unit in the league, and the personnel explains the ranking without any help from the numbers. Shane Pinto wins faceoffs and is difficult to move below the goal line; Claude Giroux takes draws and still goes to the net when the play demands it; Nick Cousins forechecks hard and talks constantly and is quick enough to play a real shift, which is what the modern version of the agitator's job requires. Warren Foegele's speed is what has kept him employed across 4 organisations and it travels straight onto a kill.

The blue line is what makes it work. Artem Zub hits, blocks and clears the crease; Tyler Kleven owns the front of his own net; Jake Sanderson closes without ever having to foul; Nikolas Matinpalo concedes a great deal of puck and very little danger, which is the club's whole method in 1 player. The cost is a disciplinary one and it is deliberate: Cousins at 92 penalty minutes and Greig at 83 are 2 small men who play a style that puts their team down a man, and this club has decided the trade is worth it. On this evidence it is.