Ottawa Senators

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 20 reports in the 2022-23 edition.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2021-22 · 82 games · 247 for, 221 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 47.9% 21st of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 47.1% 23rd of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.10 16th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.37 4th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -8.9 28th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +0.4 15th of 32

Ottawa Senators scored 8.9 fewer goals than their chances were worth — 9 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 25.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 17.8%; of skater points
From under 26: 69.5%; of skater points
Homegrown: 35.7%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 83.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Three of the four most buried chairs of 652 skaters and two of the twenty softest, all on the same roster — and a penalty kill that finished 28th.

Who this names 15 of 20 on the roster · 82% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Anton Forsberg, Mathieu Joseph, Tyler Motte, Cam Talbot, Artem Zub.

What the Quant Says

33-42-7, 73 points, 26th in the league. 227 goals for, 26th; 266 against, 22nd.

And 21st in attempt share, 23rd in chance share, 21st in expected goals per 60 at even strength. The process is below average and not disastrous; the record is worse than the process.

Finishing rated 28th at minus-8.9 and goaltending 15th at plus-0.4. The five-on-five ledger: goals for 147 against an expectation of 155.9, goals against 175 against an expectation of 175.4 — exact.

Nine goals of finishing short at five-on-five and a crease that came out level. The gap to a playoff club is not in either of those columns.

It is on the penalty kill, which finished 28th in the league at 5:08 a game, and in a roster that hands out penalties at both ends of the lineup.

What the Scout Says

The deployment on this roster is the most extreme in the batch and it is worth setting out in full.

Three of the four most buried chairs among the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts belong to Ottawa. Dylan Gambrell started 19.1 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — the lowest figure in the league — Austin Watson 23.3 per cent, the 3rd-lowest, and Parker Kelly 23.6, the 4th.

At the other end, Alex DeBrincat at 64.4 per cent and Drake Batherson at 64.4 are the 18th and 19th-highest of the same 652, with Tim Stützle 24th at 63.1 and Brady Tkachuk 40th at 60.9.

One club, four of the forty softest chairs in hockey and three of the four hardest. That is a deliberate structure, and the point of it was to let the young forwards start where they did.

What it bought: Stützle finished below fifty in chance share out of the 24th-softest chair, and Tkachuk below fifty out of the 40th. What it cost: Gambrell posted the 6th-lowest attempt share of 393 forwards and Watson the 8th.

The age profile is the case for patience. Tkachuk 22, Stützle 20, Norris 23, Brannstrom 23, Batherson 24, Chabot 25, and DeBrincat arriving at 24. Every skater over 30 on this roster — Giroux, Holden, Zaitsev, Hamonic, Watson, Brassard — is depth or a specialist.

Who this names 6 of 12 forwards · 63% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Drake Batherson, Derick Brassard, Dylan Gambrell, Parker Kelly, Tyler Motte, Austin Watson.

What the Quant Says

227 goals, 26th in the league, off the 21st-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.479 per 60). Five places of finishing lost, and the club rated 28th in that column.

Brady Tkachuk took 288 shots, the 10th-most in the league, at 22. Josh Norris scored sixteen power-play goals — tied 3rd in hockey — in sixty-six games.

Tim Stützle drew the 9th-most penalties of 393 forwards at twenty and produced forty-five per cent of his points on the power play.

Drake Batherson's 44 points in 46 games is a 78-point pace, and he has never played sixty.

Alex DeBrincat arrives with 41 goals and 270 shots at 5-8 and 180 pounds — the shortest skater in this edition of 651 — and Claude Giroux with 923 career points.

What the Scout Says

Brady Tkachuk took the 10th-most shots in the league and covered the 6th-least ground of the 365 forwards the tracking measures. A 226-pound net-front forward who shoots more than all but ten men and moves less than all but five is a coherent thing, and both halves are extreme.

Alex DeBrincat is 5-8 and 180 pounds and no skater in this edition of 651 is shorter. He has scored 160 goals in 368 games on an 88.3 mph shot at the 37th percentile — placement, not power — and he covers ground at the 89th percentile.

Josh Norris shot 20.3 per cent from a 28-foot median. That is the most fragile number in the chapter and the 87th-percentile top speed underneath it is not.

Claude Giroux has 629 career assists and the 26th-lowest slot share of 393 forwards. A 55.1 per cent attempt share that was Florida's will not travel to a club that finished 21st.

Mathieu Joseph has the 8th-most takeaways of 393 forwards, the best pair of shares on the club and no power-play time at all.

Who this names 5 of 6 defencemen · 89% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Travis Hamonic.

What the Quant Says

266 goals against, 22nd in the league, off the 26th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.790 per 60). The structure is poor and the crease neither rescued it nor made it worse.

Thomas Chabot played 26:12 a night, the 2nd-most of the 202 qualified defencemen — and ten seconds of it short-handed, the 8th percentile.

Artem Zub's ice gave back sixteen fewer goals than the model asked, the largest figure on the blue line, alongside the 7th-worst penalty differential of the 202.

Erik Brannstrom took 86 shots and scored none — more shots without a goal than any skater in the league, twenty-five clear of the next man.

Nikita Zaitsev drew no penalties at all in sixty-two games, one of three defencemen in the league to finish a season without one and the only one of them who played sixty.

What the Scout Says

Thomas Chabot plays 26:12 a night — 2nd of 202 qualified defencemen — takes 6.72 shots per 60 at the 92nd percentile, gives it away at the 91st, and kills for ten seconds a game. All four of those are true and the last is the strangest.

Erik Brannstrom took 86 shots and did not score. Nobody in the league took more without scoring, and his 99.2 mph shot is the 24th-hardest of the 192 defencemen measured. He is 5-10 and 185 pounds, the 19th-lightest defenceman in this book, and his attempt share is even while his chance share is the 22nd percentile.

Artem Zub is undrafted, plays twenty-one minutes, carries a 100 mph shot — 15th-hardest of 192 — and has the 7th-worst penalty differential of 202.

Nikita Zaitsev drew nothing in sixty-two games and posted the 11th-percentile attempt share out of the 34th-hardest chair of 652.

Nick Holden is 35, kills 3:12 a night and has three separate skating measurements in the bottom tenth of the position.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

15th in the league at plus-0.4 goals saved above expectation — almost exactly nothing, from three goaltenders who were nothing like each other.

Anton Forsberg posted .9170 across 46 games and 1,457 shots, 10th of the 53 who played twenty-five. Before last season he had faced 1,536 NHL shots across six years and stopped 90.23 per cent of them.

A hundred and forty-seven points of improvement on samples of almost the same size is the single most important open question on this roster.

Matt Murray took twenty games at .9063 and has gone to Toronto. Filip Gustavsson took eighteen at .8920 and has gone to Minnesota.

Cam Talbot arrives at 35 with 11,672 career shots at .9148 — nine seasons of a shade above league average, and by far the most reliable record in the crease.

What the Scout Says

Anton Forsberg's career splits into two halves that do not agree. Six seasons, 1,536 shots, .9023. Then one season, 1,457 shots, .9170.

Two samples of almost exactly the same size, a hundred and forty-seven points apart. The record cannot say which is the goaltender and the club's response was to trade both of its other two and sign a third.

Matt Murray at .9063 and Filip Gustavsson at .8920 are why a .9170 starter produced a club figure of plus-0.4. Forty of eighty-two games went to goaltenders below .907.

Cam Talbot at 35 has 11,672 career shots at .9148, and outside one 560-shot peak and one 997-shot trough he has finished between .9077 and .9258 every year. That is the flattest record available to this club.

His thirty-two wins want the qualifier that Minnesota finished 1st in the league in finishing and 23rd in goaltending. He arrives at a club that finished 28th in finishing. Two roughly league-average goaltenders is not the problem here, and the penalty kill is.

Who this names 9 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

30th in the league at 7.313 expected goals against per 60, over 5:08 a night — the 6th-largest workload. The worst combination on the club and one of the worst in hockey.

Nick Holden took 3:12 a night, the 5th-most of 202 defencemen, at 35 and the 12th-slowest top speed of 192. Nikita Zaitsev 2:49, Travis Hamonic 1:54, Artem Zub 1:52.

Thomas Chabot, who plays twenty-six minutes, kills for ten seconds.

2021-22 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.