Ottawa Senators

What the Quant Says

243 goals, 18th in the league, and 25th at creating chances at even strength at 2.352 expected goals per 60. This is the half of the club that does not work.

Tim Stützle had 79 points and Drake Batherson 68, Brady Tkachuk scored 29 goals in 72 games and Jake Sanderson put up 57 points from the blue line at 22. Shane Pinto scored 21 in 70 at a 16.5 per cent conversion that will not repeat.

Finishing was 25th in the league, 11.9 goals worse than expectation, and the distribution of it is brutal. Tkachuk's ice was outscored 36-38 against an expectation of 45.44-37.37, and Stützle's 51-50 against 50.04-42.97. The two best forwards on the club had the 91st and 81st percentile of chances and were outscored by twenty-three goals between them.

What the Scout Says

Two genuine creators, a captain who scores from the paint, and a bottom six that is there to be heavy.

Tim Stützle gains the line under control at speed and does not have to slow down to make a play; 55 assists says the instinct is still to pass and the shot is good enough that it should not be. Drake Batherson takes 40 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and finds the soft ice without the puck, which is a harder thing than it sounds.

Brady Tkachuk took 296 shots at a median of 25 feet with 41 per cent of them from inside 20. He does not shoot from the perimeter because the puck arrives at his stick in the paint, which is where he has already gone.

Underneath, the shot charts are the club's best feature. Michael Amadio takes 48 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, Ridly Greig 47 and Shane Pinto 38. Nobody on this roster is a perimeter forward. What they lack is the man who creates the chance rather than finishing it — Dylan Cozens is a straight-line player, Fabian Zetterlund needs a centre to find him, and Giroux is 37.

What the Quant Says

234 goals against, 13th in the league, and 7th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.35 per 60. This is the half of the club that does work, and it is the most under-remarked structure in the conference.

Nick Jensen's ice went 53-45 against an expectation of 48.54-47.28 — eleven fewer goals against than the chances predicted, on 6 penalty minutes in 71 games at twenty minutes a night. Artem Zub took 54.0 per cent of the chances, the 86th percentile, and Thomas Chabot 52.9 at 23:01 a night in the healthiest season he has had since 2019.

Below the top four it thins fast. Tyler Kleven was at 44.6 per cent, the 12th percentile, and his ice went 40-56. Nikolas Matinpalo and Dennis Gilbert take 84 and 76 per cent of their attempts from beyond 40 feet respectively, which is a third pair that arrives at the blue line and goes no further.

Jordan Spence was acquired from Los Angeles in the summer to make the bottom pair exit its own zone.

What the Scout Says

A top four that is genuinely good and a third pair that is the reason the club spent the summer shopping.

Nick Jensen took 6 penalty minutes in 71 games at twenty minutes a night, which is close to unheard of and is the signature of a defenceman who is essentially never beaten badly enough to need to foul. He closes the gap early and takes the puck with his stick. Artem Zub, undrafted and an NHL player only from 25, finishes checks hard, blocks shots and clears the front of his own net.

Jake Sanderson carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out and does it under a forecheck without visible effort. Thomas Chabot does the same thing a step slower and has done it for nine seasons. Neither of them clears a crease, which is what Zub and Kleven are for.

Tyler Kleven is 6-5 and 225 and hits very hard, and took 44.6 per cent of the chances. That is the bargain the club is still deciding whether to keep. Below him, Nikolas Matinpalo and Dennis Gilbert are a seventh defenceman and a heavy night, and Jordan Spence at 5-11 and 188 was bought to move the puck rather than the body.

What the Quant Says

Linus Ullmark went 25-14-3 with a .9089, a 2.72 average and 4 shutouts in 44 games. The club's goaltending at five-on-five came in 6.3 goals worse than the chances faced, 21st in the league — behind a defence that was 6th at suppressing them.

That is the wrong way round and it is most of the season. Two years ago Ullmark won the Vezina Trophy on a 40-6-1 record and a .9375; a .9089 behind the sixth-best chance suppression in hockey is a long way from it.

Leevi Meriläinen went 8-3-1 with a .9254 and 3 shutouts in 12 games at 22. Three shutouts in twelve appearances proves nothing and it is the most interesting twelve games anybody on this roster played. Anton Forsberg left for Los Angeles in the summer and James Reimer was signed behind the two of them.

What the Scout Says

A Vezina winner two years removed from it, and a 22-year-old who posted three shutouts in twelve games.

Linus Ullmark is 6-4 and 223 and takes up a great deal of the net simply by standing in it. He sets at the top of the crease rather than out in the shooter's face and lets the size do the work. The glove is good. The recovery across the crease is where the size costs him, and a second chance from the far post is harder for him than for a smaller goaltender.

The rebound control is the ordinary part, and behind a defence that concedes as few chances as this one does, a disproportionate share of what he faced was the second and third look at a play. He handles the puck well and starts breakouts with it, which matters on a club whose third pair struggles to exit.

Leevi Meriläinen is the opposite technique — he meets the shooter at the top of the crease, he is quick post to post, and he finds the puck through a screen well for somebody with 14 NHL games. James Reimer at 37 plays deep and beats shots with his hands, and the lateral recovery is the part that has gone.

What the Quant Says

16th in the league at 6.841 expected goals per 60, over 5:24 a night — the most power-play time of any club in hockey. An average unit given more opportunity than anybody else, which is exactly how a team that was outscored at even strength finished the season a goal ahead.

Brady Tkachuk scored 14 power-play goals and Drake Batherson 13, Stützle 5, Sanderson 5 and Cozens 5. The construction is Tkachuk in the paint, Batherson on the off wing, Stützle carrying it in and Sanderson at the point.

The volume is drawn rather than given. This is a heavy, irritating hockey team that puts the puck in the net-front and forces somebody to commit a penalty to move it, and 5:24 a night is the return on that.

What the Scout Says

The most-used power play in the league, built entirely around a man standing in front of the goaltender.

Brady Tkachuk is the unit. He is 6-4 and 226, he does not move, and 14 of his 29 goals came on it. A penalty kill that collapses on him concedes the seam; a penalty kill that does not concedes the tip.

Drake Batherson is the release valve on the off wing — 13 power-play goals and the man the box has to account for once it has committed to the paint. Tim Stützle carries it in, which is not a small thing on a unit that faces an aggressive first pressure, and Jake Sanderson distributes from the point.

Claude Giroux at 37 is the fifth man and the one who slows the whole thing down when it is going too fast. David Perron scored 4 power-play goals in 43 games, which at 14 minutes a night is a specialist doing the one thing he is still very good at.

The unit is 16th in the league. On this much ice time it should be better than that.

What the Quant Says

24th in the league at 7.457 expected goals against per 60, over 5:01 a game — the 7th-heaviest shorthanded workload in the league. A below-average unit doing an above-average amount of work, which is the same complaint as the power play read from the other end.

The volume is the roster's own doing. Dylan Cozens took 68 penalty minutes in 82 games, Ridly Greig 60 in 78, Dennis Gilbert 50 in 29, Brady Tkachuk 123 in 72 and Nick Cousins 41 in 50. Five men at rates that would be high anywhere.

The personnel is not the problem. Jensen at 6 penalty minutes and Zub on the first pair, with Pinto and Amadio in front of them, is a competent kill. Lars Eller was signed in the summer to take the defensive draws, which is the cheapest available answer to a 24th-ranked rate.

What the Scout Says

A good group of killers on a bad unit, doing more of it than almost anybody.

Shane Pinto takes the hardest defensive draws on the roster and scored 3 shorthanded goals. Michael Amadio is trusted a man short and 18 penalty minutes in 72 games is a large part of why. Nick Jensen and Artem Zub are the first pair, and between them they are the best defensive tandem the club has had in a decade.

Lars Eller was signed in the summer for this exact job — a 36-year-old with 1,116 games who wins the draw that starts the shift and makes the short correct pass out of his own zone.

And then the volume, which nobody on this roster is going to fix. Tkachuk took 123 penalty minutes, Cozens 68, Greig 60, Gilbert 50 in 29 games and Cousins 41 in 50. The club drew more power plays than anybody in hockey and spent the 7th-most time shorthanded doing it, and it is the same personality producing both numbers.