This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Parker Kelly
Colorado Avalanche Center
Undrafted, two shorthanded goals, and a chance share in the 26th percentile in Ottawa.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | OTT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0 | 7:32 |
| 2021-22 | OTT | 41 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 14.6 | 10:35 |
| 2022-23 | OTT | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 1.7 | 10:30 |
| 2023-24 | OTT | 80 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 86 | 9.3 | 11:42 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 177 | 17 | 18 | 35 | -20 | 127 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 8.8 | 11:03 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
Eighty games in Ottawa, 8 goals and 10 assists with 2 shorthanded, 11:42 a night and minus-8. He converted 9.30 per cent of 86 shots.
He took 46.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 763 minutes, the 30th percentile, and his ice went 21-35 against an expectation of 24.42-27.80. Eighteen points is a career high and the underlying numbers are a fourth-liner’s on a club that missed the playoffs.
The Finesse Game
Eighty-six shots at a median of 30 feet with 30 per cent from inside 20. Seventeen goals in 177 career games is the level and there is no reason to expect more.
Ten assists in 80 games. The puck moves simply and quickly and nothing about the offensive game will decide his career.
The Physical Game
He finishes his checks and takes 30 penalty minutes in 80 games, which is a moderate rate for a fourth-line forward who initiates. At 6-1 and 185 he is not heavy and he plays heavier than the weight.
He kills penalties and scored 2 shorthanded goals, and he is the man sent out to start a shift in his own end. That is the whole of the job and Colorado signed him for it.
The Intangibles
Undrafted out of Camrose, four seasons in Ottawa and 177 games. He is minus-20 across a career spent on a rebuilding club.
He is 25 and joining the fourth line of a club that wins fifty games. The chance share should improve for reasons that have nothing to do with him.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
80 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He kills penalties and scored 2 shorthanded goals, and he is the man sent out to start a shift in his own end.”
“Undrafted out of Camrose, four seasons in Ottawa and 177 games.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 763 minutes
- Expected goals
- 46.8%
- 31st pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.5%
- 51st pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 35 against. Expected: 24.4 and 27.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 23 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games
- Top speed
- 21.7 mph
- 28th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.02 a game
- Distance
- 1.84 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 90.8 mph
- 75th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 with OTT · 763 minutes at five-on-five
- Rourke Chartieroff the roster22%
- Ridly Greig20%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- OTT took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.8% — 2.4 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 763 minutes at five-on-five — 36th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kastelic | 47.6% | 46.2% | 45.6% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 42.7% | 49.0% | 48.4% |
| Erik Brannstrom | 53.5% | 43.4% | 51.1% |
47.6% together, 46.2% for him apart and 45.6% for Kastelic apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
119 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.