This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Parker Kelly
Colorado Avalanche Center
Undrafted, two shorthanded goals, and a chance share in the 26th percentile in Ottawa.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | OTT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0 | 7:32 |
| 2021-22 | OTT | 41 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 14.6 | 10:35 |
| 2022-23 | OTT | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 1.7 | 10:30 |
| 2023-24 | OTT | 80 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 86 | 9.3 | 11:42 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 177 | 17 | 18 | 35 | -20 | 127 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 8.8 | 11:03 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
Eighty games in Ottawa, 8 goals and 10 assists with 2 shorthanded, 11:42 a night and minus-8. He converted 9.30 per cent of 86 shots.
He took 46.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 763 minutes, the 26th percentile, and his ice went 29-45 against an expectation of 25.10-29.06. Eighteen points is a career high and the underlying numbers are a fourth-liner’s on a club that missed the playoffs.
The Finesse Game
Eighty-six shots at a median of 30 feet with 30 per cent from inside 20. Seventeen goals in 177 career games is the level and there is no reason to expect more.
Ten assists in 80 games. The puck moves simply and quickly and nothing about the offensive game will decide his career.
The Physical Game
He finishes his checks and takes 30 penalty minutes in 80 games, which is a moderate rate for a fourth-line forward who initiates. At 6-1 and 185 he is not heavy and he plays heavier than the weight.
He kills penalties and scored 2 shorthanded goals, and he is the man sent out to start a shift in his own end. That is the whole of the job and Colorado signed him for it.
The Intangibles
Undrafted out of Camrose, four seasons in Ottawa and 177 games. He is minus-20 across a career spent on a rebuilding club.
He is 25 and joining the fourth line of a club that wins fifty games. The chance share should improve for reasons that have nothing to do with him.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 763 minutes
- Expected goals
- 46.3%
- 26th pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.3%
- 48th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 45 against. Expected: 25.1 and 29.1.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 with OTT · 763 minutes at five-on-five
- Rourke Chartieroff the roster22%
- Ridly Greig20%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- OTT took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.3% — 2.9 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 763 minutes at five-on-five — 36th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kastelic | 46.0% | 46.6% | 47.2% |
| Jakob Chychrun | 43.9% | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| Erik Brannstrom | 50.8% | 44.0% | 50.2% |
46.0% together, 46.6% for him apart and 47.2% for Kastelic apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
119 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.